It’s that time again! Another 25 games in the books and another 5 times through the rotation means it is time for everyone favorite statistical toy… GAME SCORES!

(Loud cheering and applause)

So, just like last time, let’s start with the distribution, in intervals of 10 (You can find Part 1 (Games 1-25) here).

Below 20- 2
20-29- 0
30-39- 2
40-49- 6
50-59- 5
60-69- 6
70-79- 2
Above 80- 2

I don’t know about you, but I like this distribution a lot. Skewed a lot towards the upper numbers, which is very good.

Just like last time, here is the split into <40, 40-60, >60

Less than 40- 4, 16%
BT 40-60- 11, 44%
More than 60- 10, 40%

The same number of above average starts as last time, but more average starts and less below average starts than in the first 25 games (24% below average, 36% average). The Mets’ pitchers moved two below average games into average games this time around, which is a very nice step up.

Less than 40- 0-4
BT 40-60- 5-6
More than 60- 9-1

The Mets also played better ball in the average games, unlike the 3-6 ball they played in the first 25 games, another effective step up, which is part of the reason why the Mets went 14-11 in this stint of 25 games (the other being limiting below average starts, obviously).

Once again, we will take out Pedro’s starts and see how the rest of the rotation is doing. First, Pedro’s game scores…

Pedro- 69, 61, 46, 70, 82

And now the rest of the rotation…

Less than 40- 4, 20%
BT 40-60- 10, 50%
More than 60- 6, 30%

Just like last time, the Mets have 30% above average starts, but the big difference, as seen above too, is the Mets having two below average starts become average starts.

Less than 40- 0-4
BT 40-60- 5-5
More than 60- 6-0

And just like the first 25 games, the Mets have a 6-0 record in non-Pedro above average starts (just like the 9-1 when Pedro is included is the same as the first 25 games too). The difference? Two extra games in the average slot instead of below average, which they both won, making them .500 in these games, unlike the 3-5 last time.

If the Mets can continue to play around .500 baseball in the average pitched games and can outnumber the above average to below average games by about 2 to 1, the Mets could be in very good shape and could continue to pull off above .500 ball in every 25 game stretch like they did in this one (14-11), which would give them a decent chance at winning the division or getting the wild card.

Since 50 games does mark ten times through the rotation, let’s take a look at each pitchers individual split of Game Scores.

Heilman- 34, 89, 14, 73, 52, 52, 45
Glavine- 22, 63, 43, 73, 9, 14, 35, 72, 46, 44
Seo- 60, 50, 81
Zambrano- 51, 42, 46, 21, 43, 45, 54, 48, 55
Benson- 50, 31, 69, 66, 52
Ishii- 51, 75, 31, 63, 17, 60
Pedro- 64, 87, 71, 75, 53, 69, 61, 46, 70, 82

And now in a simpler and more condensed chart form…

Pitcher Starts AGS <40 40-60 >60
Pedro 10 66 0 2 8
Seo 3 64 0 1 2
Benson 5 54 1 2 2
Heilman 7 51 2 3 2
Ishii 6 50 2 1 3
Zambrano 9 45 1 8 0
Glavine 10 42 4 3 3

As you can see, the rotation has been somewhat inconsistent individually from start to start. But, surprisingly, the most consistent pitcher might just be… Victor Zambrano.

Zambrano has been average in 8 of his 9 starts according to Game Scores and if you get rid of his disaster start, he has an ERA of 3.89 ERA in the 8 average games. So, if his ERA isn’t that bad (everyone does have a bad game now and again, don’t they?), why is everyone so quick to dump on him?

1. Heilman and Seo have shown flashes of brilliance. While Zambrano has been bleh, both Aaron and Jae have shown signs of pitching really really well.
2. Zambrano is teetering on the edge of falling off the cliff. At this point right now, Zambrano is pitching average games. Unfortunately, that’s his upside and he is very close to the downside. He doesn’t throw strikes, works many long counts, walks too many batters and because of that, puts on too many baserunners (92 in 49.1 IP)
3. Zambrano does not throw a lot of innings. Victor has averaged about 5.5 IP in his 9 starts this year, a pretty pitiful number. He has also thrown about 18 pitches per IP, which is tops in the NL.

And in reality, just watch Victor Zambrano pitch and you truly understand why he is so frustrating a pitcher. He always finds a way to pull himself out of it (it is Leiter-esque) with somewhat minimal damage but you know he is also close to giving up 8 runs each time out and until he learns some control, that will be the way it will be. And the difference between Leiter and Zambrano is that, at Leiter’s age, that is the way he has to pitch to be effective. With Zambrano and his “stuff”, if he could ever figure out where the ball is going when he lets it go, he could improve greatly. Which is why he should be taken out of the rotation and sent down to Norfolk… so, hopefully, he can figure it out. But instead, the Mets will wait until Trachsel comes back in July and make their decision on Zambrano (or possibly Ishii) then, instead of giving Aaron Heilman (or Jae Seo) a chance.