I think that reasonable people can disagree about the MVP or Cy Young or anything like that. It’s just that sometimes the choices go far beyond the realm of the sane. This year, however, I’m happy to report that the choices were all in bounds:

AL ROY: Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young: Cliff Lee
AL MVP: Dustin Pedroia

NL ROY: Geovany Soto
NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum
NL MVP: Albert Pujols

I would have voted for Halladay for AL Cy, but otherwise, this matches my IBA ballot.

Now, the votes do not have to match my ballot to be sane. The more “controversial” awards this year, I thought, were as follows:

AL Cy Young: Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Mariano Rivera
NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, Brad Lidge
AL MVP: Joe Mauer, Dustin Pedroia

I thought that any of Lee, Halladay, and Mo Rivera were valid picks for the AL Cy Young. For the NL Cy Young, Lincecum and Santana were a toss-up, and a perfect relief season deserves consideration. And in the AL, where there was no clear-cut favorite, Mauer and Pedroia were a coin-flip.

I think that this is a victory worth celebrating, in its own right. None of the consensus picks were indefensible, from a standpoint of logical analysis. This is a good thing. We probably put way too much stock into awards as fans/analysts, but they’re great for debate, and it’s good to see that the voters are getting smarter. (Notice the absence of K-Rod from the AL Cy ballots; I pray for moderation from Mets’ management on this one.)

But for this piece, I’m more interested in the Mets’ schedule. I’d just like to point out a few interesting tidbits I noticed while looking it over:

1. There’s a World Baseball Classic again this spring.

I had forgotten about this entirely, to be honest. (Also, still in the interest of honesty, I have been out of the baseball loop, to some extent, caught up in a few other things.) A handful of Mets should be playing in this, though Johan Santana was none too impressed in 2006.

2. Either the Mets’ third or fourth starter will pitch Opening Day at CitiField.

Right now, that would either be John Maine, Big Pelf, or Oliver Perez though that could change with an offseason acquisition of a starting pitcher. The Mets break in the new stadium at home against the rebuilding Padres.

The collective bargaining agreement stipulates that a team flying coast-to-coast cannot play a day game on the next day, so, for the first time in a very long time, the Mets’ home opener is a night game. Anyone recall the last time the Mets opened Shea with a night game?

3. Geek Day may work at Camden Yards next year, but the Mets are only playing there on weeknights.

A few of us discussed the possibility of having a Geek Day at Camden Yards in 2009, on the off-chance that the Mets would wind up in Camden Yards for a series. The Mets currently have a three-game stretch with Baltimore scheduled for June 16-18 at beautiful Camden Yards, but those are weeknights.

4. The Mets have a very tough slate of opponents from June 9 to July 9.

Take a look at these opponents:

- 6 with Yankees (3 Home/3 Road)
- 6 with the Phillies (3 Home/3 Road)
- 3 with the Orioles (3 Road)
- 3 with the Rays (3 Home)
- 4 with the Cardinals (4 Home)
- 3 with the Dodgers (3 Home)
- 3 with the Brewers (3 Road)

Excepting the Orioles, all of those teams were over .500 last year. The Mets will get three of the NL’s four playoff teams, plus the restocked Yankees and the reigning AL champion Rays. The Mets should be over .500 by a few games going into that stretch. If they can build on that over those 28 games, I would be quite optimistic going into the All-Star Break.

5. The Mets’ schedule seems to spread out their West Coast trips nicely.

I count three trips to the West for the Mets during the season:

May 14-20: San Francisco, Los Angeles
August 6-12: San Diego, Arizona
September 1-3: Colorado

6. The Mets may be quite exhausted going into those first two West Coast swings.

The Mets have two absolutely grueling stretches this year, both capped off by the West Coast trips. First, the Mets play 20 straight games in May:

May 1-3: at Philadelphia
May 4-5: at Atlanta
May 6-7: home against Philly
May 8-10: home against Pittsburgh
May 11-13: home against Atlanta
May 14-17: at San Francisco
May 18-20: at Los Angeles

They have another 20 straight games spanning the end of July and the first couple of weeks in August:

July 24-26: at Houston
July 27-30: home against Colorado
July 31-August 3: home against Arizona
August 4-5: home against St. Louis
August 6-9: at San Diego
August 10-12: at Arizona

Although the NL West is pretty bad, I would not be surprised to see the Mets struggle in these games. The rest of the schedule seems to have a good smattering of off-days, but it just so happens that the Mets’ two major West Coast trips come without a travel day. It’s something to keep an eye on.

7. Once again, the Mets finish against the Phillies way too early.

I’ve written about the emerging Mets/Phillies rivalry in the past, and you can certainly add 2008 to the history. But the Mets and Phils never seem to face off in the crucial last weeks of the season. This year, the two teams have only 3 games in September (11-13), closing out their season series.

8. The Mets should rack up some wins in late May/early June.

From May 25 to June 7, the Mets have six games against the Gnats, three against the Marlins, and four against the Pirates. Although all three teams should be better in 2009, is 10-3 too much to ask for in that stretch?

9. It doesn’t look like the Mets will face any B-teams preparing for the playoffs down the stretch.

Last year, the Mets were gift-wrapped a series against the Cubs in late September at Shea. The Cubs had just clinched the NL Central, and the Mets were poised to take advantage of their backups. Instead, they gutted and clawed their way to a 2-2 split in the four-game series. Great games, but not good enough. There appears to be no such opportunity for such a series in late September this year; the Mets face divisional foes from September 8 all the way through September 30.

10. The Mets don’t have to face their late-season nemesis (Florida) on the last weekend.

The Marlins have played spoiler to the Mets two straight seasons. This time, the Mets end against Houston. Perhaps avoiding the Fearsome Fins will change their luck.

So, how many days until pitchers and catchers, again?

In my time writing for MetsGeek, I’ve seen a number of posters throw out trades like Bobby Parnell and Eddie Kunz for Jake Peavy while labeling prospects like Jon Niese and Daniel Murphy untouchable. While I appreciate the fervor in which Mets fans support their team, I sometimes wonder how certain prospects become so overvalued in the eyes of their fans.

When assessing the potential for players being overhyped, one often needs to look no further than the size of the media market. A sub category of this is how many teams are in a particular city and where each ranks in popularity. Additionally, organizational success breeds fan support and is another contributing factor. Based on this, my top five organizations in terms of potential for hype are:

1. New York Yankees
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Boston Red Sox
4. New York Mets
5. Chicago Cubs

These organizations have the largest fan bases and therefore garner the most significant media attention. For those of you who read prospect chats, the following should be all too familiar:

Host: Welcome to the chat. Fire away!
NYFan1: Who is the top prospect in the Mets organization?
Host: Fernando Martinez or Wilmer Flores
SoxFan: Is Michael Almanzar better than Wilmer Flores?
Host: No.
DodgerBlue: Is Kershaw the top young pitcher in baseball?
Host: Yes. Better than Price!
YanksH8R: F-Mart or Austin Jackson?
Host: F-Mart
MetsKing: Is Jon Niese going to be in the Mets ro?
Host: Maybe, if they don’t sign anybody.
GoYanks: Is Ian Kennedy going to be in the Yanks ro?
Host: Aceves has jumped him on the depth chart.
Lonely Royal: What is Mike Montgomery’s ceiling?
Host: Solid #2. Stock has risen.

With the sheer number of fans from the big market franchises, they tend to dominate the conversation with a number of very similar questions asked different ways. Hosts even make comments about how often the same question is asked in the hope fans will get the point. With the conversation driven in ways similar to the chat above, it’s only natural for prospects from major media markets to rise in name recognition. That name recognition leads to hype when the players output does not equal the buzz surrounding them.

Bobby Parnell is a perfect example of this. I’ve seen his name on many Mets fans top five prospect lists and his name comes up frequently on prospect chats. Meanwhile, his 4.62 ERA, middling strikeout totals and more than a hit per inning allowed are the epitome of average.

The media also plays a huge role in they hype machine. A poster on MetsGeek was correct in bashing the media for their impatience with Mets prospects. The question I ask is where does the impatience come from? My answer would be from prospects being mentioned so many times starting at a young age that they are expected to produce MVP or Cy Young type numbers from day one. This is especially dangerous since I doubt reporters covering the Mets have the prospect knowledge of many well read Mets bloggers and fans. When time to research prospects is limited due to commitments to writing about the big club, writers tend to focus too much on raw numbers which can create a warped view of the prospects’ true value (see Mike Carp).

I’m confident Lastings Milledge will be an All-Star-caliber player before all is said and done. In all honestly, 2008 should have been his rookie season. Had it been, he would have finished in the top-five in rookie of the year balloting and would be entering 2009 as the new toast of New York and the best home-grown African-American player since Straw and Doc. Instead, he’ll be a cornerstone in the Nationals’ rise to respectability after being dealt for a song as a fall guy for the Mets 2007 collapse.

As an aspiring writer and blogger, I find myself a guilty party in making the hype machine worse, not better. On Baseball Handyman, 25 of 86 posts are about the Mets and Yankees. An additional 11 feature the Braves, another franchise whose prospects sometimes receive undue hype (think Kyle Davies). Meanwhile, I have made just one mention of the Nationals, Indians, and Mariners.

With that said, I guess prospect hype is cyclical. Writers want readers so they write about franchises who have the most fans. Fans obviously want to discuss their own players so they ask questions about their teams prospects. The teams with the most fans has the most questions asked and the cycle repeats.

What Mets fans can do is look at their own prospects with the understanding their opinion of a player is likely 10-20% more generous than a non-fan’s would be. This will help temper expectations and keep perceived trade values in the realm of realistic. It will also help many a Mets fan keep from sounding silly the next time the temptation to offer up Bobby Parnell/Mike Carp/Josh Thole for B.J. Upton around the water cooler gets them laughed out of the building.

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November 5
9:42am: According to Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune, the White Sox are aggressively shopping Javier Vazquez.
8:43pm: Ken Davidoff says the White Sox are not anxious to unload Vazquez.

Did the White Sox really do a complete 180 on Vazquez in less than 12 hours? How can a baseball fan lend any worth to these types of contradictory reports? To take a breather from the non-stop hot stove reports, I set out on a fun mission: to determine the top ten individual seasons by Mets hitters. This task requires examination of statistics and Mets history, two of my favorite baseball topics. The following are the main criteria I used, in order from most to least important:

1) OPS+: This is the player’s OPS measured against the league-average OPS for the given season, adjusted for park factors. An average OPS+ is always 100, and a player with an OPS+ of 120 performed 20% better than league average. While it is useful for comparing players across different seasons, it is not a perfect stat, as the on-base component of OPS is much more important than slugging. I took this into account.

2) WPA: This is win probability added. It measures a player’s win contribution on each play, whether it be strikeout, single, or home run. It can be positive or negative and weighs a player’s performance based on situational context. This is to say that a walk-off home run will add much more to a player’s WPA than a home run hit when already ahead by eight runs.

3) Player position: If the player is a catcher, shortstop, second base, or centerfielder (premium positions) I gave him slightly more credit.

4)Stolen bases and SB%: I am a proponent of stealing bases, provided the success rate is at a high level. For instance, Lee Mazzili’s 20 stolen bases in 1978 were not that valuable considering his 61% success rate. However, Carlos Beltran’s 23 stolen bases in 2007 were impressive because of his terrific 92% success rate. Note that I didn’t list stolen bases or SB% below, to avoid statistical overload.

5) Number of games played: Mike Piazza put up great numbers in 1998, but he played just 109 games for the Mets that season. Likewise, Darry Strawberry’s 1985 season was incredible, but he only played in 111 games.

I also considered stats like home runs, RBI, and extra-base hits, but these are not very useful for comparing players across different seasons.

Here is the list:

10.

Player             Year  Pos   OPS+   WPA   HR   OBA   SLG   OPS
Edgardo Alfonzo    2000   2B    147  4.11   25  .425  .542  .967

Alfonzo just barely beats out Keith Hernandez in 1984, Mike Piazza in 2001, and Todd Hundley in 1997. His OBP was the second highest single-season mark in Mets history, and he did it playing a premium position. Alfonzo was one of my favorite Mets, and 2000 was his career peak.

9.

Player             Year  Pos   OPS+   WPA   HR   OBA   SLG   OPS
Cleon Jones        1969   LF    151   N/A   12  .422  .482  .904

Jones is the only pre-1980 Met to make the list. Best known for catching the final out of the 1969 World Series, Jones teamed with childhood friend Tommie Agee to anchor the outfield and lineup. The 1969 Mets are remembered for their amazing young pitching staff, and rightfully so. However, Jones was the best hitter that year by a wide margin.

8.

Player             Year  Pos   OPS+   WPA   HR   OBA   SLG   OPS
David Wright       2007   3B    150  4.15   30  .416  .546  .962

Barring injury or trade, Wright is on a path to become the best hitter in Mets history. His numbers have been amazingly consistent through his first four full major league seasons, but 2007 was his best. He posted career highs in batting average, OBA, slugging, and OPS+. His 34 stolen bases were quite valuable, as he stole at an 87% success rate. Wright should have become the first Met to win the NL MVP Award in 2007.

7.

Player             Year  Pos   OPS+   WPA   HR   OBA   SLG   OPS
Carlos Beltran     2006   CF    150  5.22   41  .388  .594  .982

Beltran tied the single-season club record for home runs in 2006, and did it while playing a premium position. Though his power numbers have dipped the last two years, he can still be counted on to hit around 30 home runs and put up a SLG of .500. Despite his season-ending strikeout against Adam Wainwright in the NLCS, he put up a strong .277/.422/.555 line in the playoffs. His postseason performance was not considered for this list.

6.

Player             Year  Pos   OPS+   WPA   HR   OBA   SLG   OPS
Bernard Gilkey     1996   LF    155  5.22   30  .393  .562  .955

Credited as “baseball player” for his breakout film role in “Men in Black,” Gilkey’s 1996 season was truly brilliant. On top of his stellar OPS+ and WPA, Gilkey hit .406 with runners in scoring position. The 1996 Mets could hit, featuring career years from Gilkey, Hundley, and Lance Johnson. However, they had no pitching, evidenced by the fact that they had just one starting pitcher (Mark Clark) post an ERA better than league average.

5.

Player             Year  Pos   OPS+   WPA   HR   OBA   SLG   OPS
Darryl Strawberry  1988   RF    165  5.28   39  .366  .545  .911

Strawberry put up the third-highest single season OPS+ in Mets history in 1988. He loses points because of his OBP and poor 67% stolen base success rate. He is the only Met to show up twice on the list, and had three other seasons which I considered. The Mets’ all-time home run record belongs to Strawberry with 252, but Wright should threaten the record sometime around late 2012.

4.

Player             Year  Pos   OPS+   WPA   HR   OBA   SLG   OPS
John Olerud        1998   1B    163  6.40   22  .447  .551  .998

Sweet-swinging John Olerud is still my favorite Met, because of his excellent play on the field and quiet demeanor off it. When I met him at the Mets Clubhouse about 10 years ago, his hitting advice was simple: “keep your back elbow up and your eye on the ball.” Olerud’s spot on this list is not a result of any bias. He posted the highest single-season batting average (.354), OBP, and WPA in Mets history.

3.

Player             Year  Pos   OPS+   WPA   HR   OBA   SLG   OPS
Mike Piazza        2000   C    155   5.53   38  .398  .614 1.012

Piazza posted the single-season Mets record for SLG and OPS in 2000 and gets the nod over Olerud for playing a premium position. He also hit three grand slams in 2000, and had the decisive three-run homer on June 30th to complete the unforgettable eighth inning comeback, down 8-1 against the Braves. Piazza just missed appearing on this list multiple times.

2.

Player             Year  Pos   OPS+   WPA   HR   OBA   SLG   OPS
Howard Johnson     1989   3B    169  4.70   36  .369  .559  .928

Johnson put up a Mets-record OPS+ in 1989, and stole 41 bases at an outstanding 84% success rate. He loses some credit because his OPS was very slugging-heavy. Nevertheless, Hojo was a great package of power and speed, hitting 157 homers and stealing 160 bases in the five-season stretch from 1987 to 1991.

1.

Player             Year  Pos   OPS+   WPA   HR   OBA   SLG   OPS
Darryl Strawberry  1987   RF    162  5.56   39  .398  .583  .981

The #1 spot was a tossup between Johnson and Strawberry. I chose Strawberry because his OBP was superior, and he posted a better WPA. Most Met fans lament what might have been for Strawberry, but I’d rather appreciate his eight elite years in Flushing.

Honorable Mentions:

Gary Carter: 1985
Joe Christopher: 1964
Keith Hernandez: 1984, 1986
Todd Hundley: 1996, 1997
Howard Johnson: 1991
Cleon Jones: 1968, 1971
Dave Magadan: 1990
Kevin McReynolds: 1988
Mike Piazza: 1999, 2002
Rusty Staub: 1975
Darryl Strawberry: 1985, 1986, 1990
Frank Thomas: 1962

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I guess this is pretty blatantly obvious, but it should probably be pointed out again: the Mets got back into contention when they pieced together the money and prospects to land Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Pedro Martinez, and Billy Wagner. A few years later, the pitchers are no longer difference-makers due to injuries, but Beltran has been a key cog in the Mets’ order and Delgado has been an effective first baseman in two of his three seasons for the Mets.

This offseason, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixiera, Manny Ramirez, Francisco Rodriguez, and Brian Fuentes are free agents. The Mets are in on the relievers but are apparently willing to forego the top three for the most part (they have been linked to Sabathia as I’m writing this article but most people believe it is a ploy to drive up the price for the Yankees). In addition to this, Matt Holliday was and Jake Peavy still is on the market, and the Mets have not gone in hard on either of them. Especially puzzling was the lack of pursuit on Holliday, who fits the Mets’ needs in left field almost perfectly, right down to being a good defensive player and good on the basepaths. And, at 29 next year, he is everything the Mets probably hope Fernando Martinez becomes.

I’m more than a bit frustrated with the Mets not focusing on the top guys on the market outside of the bullpen. Yeah, Carlos Delgado is a good first baseman, but he is not Mark Teixiera and should the team be fortunate enough to land the latter, Delgado has enough trade value to bring back something. No, Manny Ramirez will never be good with the glove, but neither are any of the other left fielders on the market (Ibanez, Burrell, etc) that are anywhere near his bat. CC Sabathia will be 28, and for all that concern about his weight and its effects on his future contract, he’s thrown over 180 innings in every year of his career. Look, I don’t even mind if we don’t get these guys, sometimes they will want to choose a better situation, will want to be closer to home, or will just get a better offer, period. But to flat-out ignore them on the market would be a huge mistake. The Mets need new difference makers. Coming back from this offseason without at least two of these guys would make it a very disappointing one to me, considering our payroll flexibility.

2) If it gets to them, don’t be afraid to wait it out with the second-tier guys.

Last offseason the Mariners handed Carlos Silva a four-year, $48 million contract, while after waiting until almost spring training, Kyle Lohse settled for one year and $5 million, despite the two being very similar pitchers over their careers. This is something that I hope Omar learned from last year’s Luis Castillo debacle—David Eckstein, who the Mets’ brass had dinner with, originally was looking for four years, $36 milion; later, he would settle for one year, $4.5 million.

There is absolutely no need to rush with players such as Raul Ibanez, Pat Burrell, Derek Lowe, Ollie Perez, Ben Sheets, and Jon Garland. If you can’t get a premium guy, wait until you can get a solid guy for a price that isn’t premium. This isn’t about screwing over players, so you don’t have to be worried that it will hurt future relations; it’s simply about getting a fair price. If all the best corner outfield options are gone, there is no reason to immediately knock on Raul Ibanez’s door and offer him four years and $32 million. Instead, act interested, but don’t rush into things. If it works in dating, it should work on the free agent market. Don’t be the team that ends up with buyer’s remorse again. In fact, don’t offer a contract over three years to anyone who isn’t a difference-maker, period.

3) Get creative to address places you can’t improve on the free agent market.

This is one of the things that I think Omar does very well. The trades for John Maine and Oliver Perez were both winners, and even the Ambiorix Burgos-Brian Bannister swap doesn’t look quite as bad as it otherwise could right now. Now if we apply this maxim to second base and catcher, the two places that don’t have any tremendously appealing options in free agency, you might find a bunch of guys that I would consider shopping my non-Martinez/Wilmer Flores prospects for.

There are some obvious targets like Kelly Shoppach and Kelly Johnson that make sense, but even barring the obvious ones the Mets should be very proactive about looking to fill their needs through trades. I covered some of the second basemen already, but some of the catchers the Mets could look at would include one of Arizona’s Miguel Montero (or Chris Snyder if Arizona would rather deal him), Tampa’s John Jaso, and one of the Rangers’ awesome collection of Gemaxtayod Saltalaigardirez. To a lesser extent, perhaps even Ramon Hernandez or Javier Valentin could be considered an upgrade over Brian Schneider.

4) Micromanage the bench.

This is the one thing that I think Omar usually doesn’t pay attention, and I wish he’d remedy that. The Mets have the resources that enable them to put a few million on the bench without it hurting too much, and year after year they neglect that advantage. Josh Phelps has already slipped out under the Mets noses again even though he’s a perfect fit for resting Delgado. Between Ramon Castro, Fernando Tatis, and Endy Chavez, the Mets have three solid pieces to a good bench. I would like to see a left-hander with a little pop and a glove man for the infield.

There are plenty of suitable names out there, but a few I like are Tony Clark, Dan Johnson, Tony Graffanino, Russ Branyan, and Alex Cora. It’s not so much about the players they sign as it is the effort to remake the bench though; the days of Julio Franco and Marlon Anderson and carrying three catchers because no one else in the organization is worth a spot need to end now.

Most headlines aggregated by SportSpyder.

Most headlines aggregated by SportSpyder.

Most headlines aggregated by SportSpyder.