sitemeter:

April 13, 2009
  
2009 Mets player predictions

I do this every year. Last year here’s what I said:

Reyes .296/.359/.451, 117 runs, 62 SB, 14 HR, 15 3B

Jose will go through his ups and downs at the plate, especially against righties. The lazy flies and grounders to first will get frustrating, but he’ll have his hot streaks too. His strikeouts may decrease, but his walks might decrease a little too, as pitchers pitch him less carefully than last year. His new “seriousness” and his exhaustion at the end of last years probably means he’ll run less. He’ll still get enough opportunities (thanks to Castillo) to lead the league in steals. His runs may dip as a result of the lack of production from the #5 spot, and the fact that Castillo won’t drive him in from first base all season. In the field, he’ll add a few improvements to last year’s performance, and remain solidly above-average.

Castillo .281/.355/.329, 77 runs, 40 RBI, 18 SB, 1 HR

Castillo can loop singles over the infield, chop a grounder wherever he wants, get down a sacrifice, take pitches, make contact, and help you win your 1-run games. Before the game is tied in the 8th inning, though, his “giving himself up” tactics will be largely detrimental – a sub-.700 OPS sucks. He’ll have a higher OBP when Reyes isn’t on base, because he’ll actually be trying to reach base rather than move the runner over. His OBP will be better than a lot of teams’ #2 hitters, so that’s kind of an asset. In the field, his lost range won’t come back, but he’ll be steady and turn some nice DPs.

Wright .316/.401/.548, 117 runs, 104 RBI, 21 SB, 32 HR

He’ll hit similarly to the way he did in 2007, but maybe not spread out the same way (terrible->good->great). The strikeouts may drop a little bit, and a few doubles turning into HRs wouldn’t surprise me. With Delgado struggling, he’ll be reluctant to “take the bat out of Beltran’s hands” by running. In the field, I think he’ll be slightly improve from last year, getting to a few more balls and making fewer throwing errors.

Beltran .275/.354/.540, 95 runs, 111 RBI, 18 SB, 35 HR

His knees will flare up at times and cost him some range. His production will be different with less protection behind him, but Wright on base all the time in front of him. A “trying to do too much” slump is a real risk. If Carlos becomes less selective, the OBP will plummet. Overall, though, he’ll let his skills carry him and basically repeat 2007.

Delgado .251/.319/.439, 35 runs, 67 RBI, 17 HR

Delgado will be given a lot of chances because of his track record, and he’ll have a lot of guys on base in front of him. Just by virtue of that, he’ll drive in enough runs to make Willie go, “We can live with this until he heats up.” Alas, Delgado will only hit mistakes on the outer half. Any pitcher with decent command will get him out. Before the year’s over, he’ll have lost the #5 spot int he order, and possibly his everyday job. In the field, his poor footwork around the bag will continue to guarantee that few imperfect throws will record outs.

Alou .310/.352/.500, 48 RBI, 15 HR, 320 plate appearances

Willie seems to lack the balls to rest his players over their wishes. A competitive season will mean that when Alou’s healthy, he’ll be on the field… which means he won’t stay healthy. Hernia surgery involves cutting through some of your core muscles, and that really messes you up. Adrian Beltre lost a full season after an appendectomy. Alou will either be out well into May, or reinjure himself. The best fastball hitter on the team, our stretch drive may depend on when he plays. I’m crossing my fingers and guessing “late” again.

Church .275/.348/.468, 72 RBI, 19 HR

Church will strike out way too much, and he’s not as fast as you’d ideally want in an OF. Other than that, he’ll be an excellent contributor, taking walks, hitting for extra bases, and not being particularly awful against lefties. His clutch hitting will be key, and he could easily exceed that RBI total with a good showing, or miss it with a bad one. His solid routes and rifle arm will be a breath of fresh air in RF.

Schneider .248/.311/.398, 50 RBI, 11 HR

Schneider is neither as patient nor as poor a hitter as his 2007 stats. He’ll be an easy out far too often, but have the occasional big hit. Behind the plate, his pitch-blocking and framing will be the best we’ve had in a very, very long time. His throwing won’t wow anybody, but will be above average and discourage opponents (that’ll be a nice change!). Calling games will be a mixed bag, as his assertiveness will make or break the deferential Maine, and clash with Pedro’s dictatorial style. He might be good for Ollie. It’ll be interesting to see if Schneider and Castro get paired up with any pitchers.

Santana 2.75 in 225 IP, 19-8, 230 K, 45 BB

The occasional hanging chengeup. It’ll float upstairs and get drilled for a homerun. Other than that, Santana will be pretty much perfect. He won’t walk guys, he’ll go very deep into games with reasonable pitch counts, and would lead the league in complete games in a less conservative organization. Rather than trying to strike everyone out like in 2004, he’ll work quickly and save his nastiest stuff for the biggest spots. So, no 300 K season, but a legit Cy Young contender.

Pedro 3.45 in 180 IP, 12-5, 160 K, 50 BB

Pedro will be alarmingly hittable, and rely on his defense more than ever before. He’ll continue to baffle hitters, though, avoiding the sweet spot of the bad with his variety of pitches with different movement. We’ll baby him and he’ll avoid serious injury, though he will need to be skipped a few times during the season. His biggest weakness will be durability, with his hittable stuff becoming very hittable after 80 pitches. He’ll have a few days where he’s locating his change and curve and decides to run with them and strike out 10, but he won’t have any complete games.

Maine 3.55 in 208 IP, 15-9, 180 K, 68 BB

Maine’s fastball seems to generate a lot of foul balls, and he seems to miss the corners as much as he hits them. The high pitch counts aren’t going away entirely, but he’ll pitch in the zone a little more than before, resulting in fewer walks and slightly fewer Ks. Maine will be better at righting himself when his concentration slips, leading to fewer big innings. He’ll be a fly ball machine on some days, and a strikeout machine on others.

Ol. Perez 4.19 in 198 IP, 13-11, 190 K, 85 BB

Ollie seems to have a good attitude and work ethic; he’s just a little A.D.D. on the mound. Inconsistency will still be the name of his game. He’ll repeat 2007’s performance, but with a little less luck on the HR front and a little more luck on the health front.

El Duque 4.68 in 95 IP, 4-6, 75 K, 50 BB

I expect it to be an odyssey. Bad starting, bad relieving, great releiving, DL stint, great starting, mediocre relieving.

Pelfrey 6.00 in 13 IP, 0-2

He won’t show enough this year to warrant patience in the majors. By the end of the year, a new game plan will have been formed for him in AAA – possibly as a reliever.

Wagner 38-5 SV-BS

It’s a bummer that he isn’t more impressive and confidence-inspiring, but he is still easily one of the most reliable closers in baseball. A pennant race will forc ehim to pitch more than he wants to, leaving his tank empty for October.

Heilman

He’s not the strikeout machine he was at the end of 2005, but he’s good enough to be a set-up man. He’ll have his dominant outings and his outings where he can’t locate and gets hit hard. He won’t impress, but his numbers will be a huge boon.

Feliciano

Willie will continue to leverage his contributions into as little help for the team as possible. As for Feliciano himself, he’ll be what he is – murder on lefties (but with the occasional walks) and solid against righties (occasionally murder on them as well).

Schoeneweis

His pinata nature against righties will cost us some games. He won’t walk as many lefties as last year, making him legitimately useful against them.

Wise

On the days he can locate his fastball, he’ll dominate. On the days he can’t locate his fastball and throws all changeups, he’ll get by – the pitch is that good. Ont eh days he can’t locate his fastball and throws it, he’ll get rocked. Expect that last scenario to happen too much for comfort, but not often enough to ruin a good season.

Joe Smith

All over the map. He’ll spend two stints in the majors, each alternating between good and awful.

Sosa

What do you do with a ROOGY who can start? Sosa will have a great game or two filling in for the fifth starter, but more lousy ones. He’ll spend most of the season in the ‘pen, getting some big outs, but losing some games to the lefties who hammer him.

Duaner Sanchez

He’ll miss the first week of games, return, get lit up, get used in lower-pressure situations, go on the DL with arm soreness, return again, and be up and down for the second half.

Ramon Castro

His health will prevent us from seeing what he’d do with a fuller share of the job. On-base skills may dip; power won’t.

Damion Easley

Same as last year, but no ankle sprain this time.

Angel Pagan

Won’t hit enough to stay in the picture when Alou’s healthy. Will basically be Endy with fewer bunt singles and more doubles.

Endy Chavez

Will be Endy.

NYMets 92-70 .568 –
Braves 91-71 .562 1
Phillies 89-73 .549 3
Marlins 64-98 .395 28
Nats 64-98 .395 28

The Marlins and Nats will give us a good fight, but their starting pitching will roll over for everyone else. The Braves will outhit us and have stretches where the pitching holds together. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in first place in the first half. The Phillies’ offense may make Hamels a Cy Young, and will carry even their worst pitchers when everyone’s hot. Any slump from a key guy, though, will turn half of every turn through the rotation into a rout. As for the Mets, the bottom of the order will disappoint, but it’ll be a “pitching and defense” kind of a year. As long as one reliever besides Wagner/Heilman/Feliciano steps up, we’ll consistently hold down opponents and be a team no one wants to face in the playoffs. Our playoff success will depend on who we face – we’ll maul a Central team, but won’t be favorites against whoever wins the West, and it’d be too close to call in an NLCS against the Braves.

Well, Wright became a pull hitter and lost a bit off his batting average, Castillo couldn’t do anything other than draw walks, Beltran kept his patience but his sore legs cost him homers, Delgado recaptured his prime in the 2nd half, Pelfrey suddenly put it together, Pedro fell off a cliff, and our geezers (Alou and Duque) couldn’t take the field at all. The Braves pitching disintegrated, but the Marlins’ held in there. At least I pegged Reyes and was close on most of the others. So let’s try 2009:

Reyes .301/.358/.459, 120 runs, 59 SB, 18 HR, 18 3B

Just not enough consistency from at bat to at bat, pitch to pitch, to take his stats to the next level. Runs scored will depend a lot on Wright, and could easily be ten more with a great season or 10 fewer with a poor one. On defense, Manuel’s insistence will produce at least one stretch of the season where Jose looks like a gold glove genius out there. Overall, though, he won’t be immune from the ADD that’s plagued him in the past, and will continue to get to balls at a slightly above-average rate.

Murphy .311/.375/.439, 95 runs, 72 RBI, 12 HR

As the #2 hitter, with the staff preaching “team first”, Murphy won’t try to hit for power. He’ll foul off a lot of tough pitches, and be among the league leaders in singles. He’ll draw walks when he’s red hot and teams pitch around him, but otherwise teams will go after him and keep that OBP from getting near .400. His defense will look ugly, but not hurt us enough to cost him at bats.

Wright .296/.384/.528, 108 runs, 111 RBI, 11 SB, 33 HR

David can hit homers and blast scorchers past the third baseman. Tht’ll make it hard to return him to the opposite field line drive machine of years past. He’ll hit similarly to last year, but with teams playing him to pull, the results won’t be quite as good. He also won’t lead the league in at bats with RISP again, dropping his RBI totals even with a more normal clutch avg. On defense: last year, he almost deserved his god glove. This year, he’ll get even closer.

Delgado .271/.354/.527, 87 runs, 108 RBI, 35 HR

He’s not done, but he is slump-prone. He’ll repeat last year without quite the extremes. He will keep up the effort on the basepaths and in the field (inept as he may be) that was missing during Willie’s tenure. He won’t play 159 games again.

Beltran .283/.381/.519, 95 runs, 104 RBI, 24 SB, 31 HR

Carlos will have his most consistent year since 2006. Only his position in the batting order will stop him from another 110+ run season. He’ll run more with Schneider and Castillo at the plate. In center, he’ll earn another gold glove.

Church .280/.344/.488, 79 RBI, 20 HR

Church will go through power streaks, single-spraying streaks, and high-strikeout slumps. His improved ability to hit to left will shorten some slumps, and Church will spend a chunk of the season above .300. He’ll remain concussion-free, but will be plagued by a few minor injuries.

Schneider .238/.305/.363, 39 RBI, 9 HR

When hot, Scheider will hit line drives on mistake pitches. When not hot, he’ll be an automatic out. No longer batting 8th, he’ll draw fewer walks. His arm will continue to be above average and deter baserunners from running wild. His game-calling will improve from last year, but still be nothing special.

Castillo .284/.369/.338, 12 SB, 2 HR

Castillo gets good jumps and will steal at a good success rate. He could steal a lot more, but he won’t want to make the 3rd out with the pitcher up, and the pitcher will bunt him over the rest of the time. His main offensive contribution will be to clear the pitcher enough to let Reyes lead off a lot of innings. In the field, his quickness is gone for good, but his dexterity around the bag will make him average overall.

Santana 2.78 in 226 IP, 20-8, 240 K, 50 BB

Pitching up in the strike zone more, Santana will allow a few more homers and get a lot more strikeouts. He’ll be even harder to hit than last year, but won’t be quite as adept at stranding runners. The bullpen will hold enough leads for him to be our first 20-game winner since 1990.

Pelfrey 4.05 in 194 IP, 14-10, 120 K, 65 BB

Pelfrey will dominate at times with his 4-seamer + 2-seamer combo, but his other stuff won’t advance quickly enough for him to strike out many batters. He’ll have some complete games, but also some games where he gives up 9 hits in 4 innings. Walks will be the key: if he attacks the zone, his numbers could be much better; if he nibbles, they could be much worse.

Ol. Perez 4.53 in 167 IP, 10-12, 158 K, 93 BB

Ollie will go through stretches where he single-handedly loses us multiple games. He’ll also pitch 7 no-hit innings when he wakes up and has a good mechanics day. Expect more tinkering with his windup, landing foot position, set, arm slot, etc. His durability will be offset by his high pitch counts and tendency to implode when tired, meaning he won’t approach the innings total his arm could otherwise handle.

Maine 4.01 in 180 IP, 13-9, 158 K, 77 BB

Maine will be unpredictable in every way. Sometimes he’ll pitch up in the zone, racking up Ks and homers. Other times he’ll pitch down and get weak contact off his slider and change. Other times he’ll walk the world. The slider and change will remain enough in need of practice that he’ll never get the curve to where it can be a regular weapon. He’ll miss a few starts with a mild strain of something in his core (oblique, hip flexor, etc.). He’ll succeed more often at getting quicker outs, and see more 7th innings than in 2008, but still not a ton.

K-Rod 41-6 in Save chances

Too many walks, but plenty of escapes. The fastball and changeup will be merely good. In big spots, he’ll get by with that slurve, and regret it when he doesn’t throw it. That pitch is still one of the majors’ best.

Putz

It’s not 2007, but it’s not 2008 either. He’ll fan a guy an inning, won’t walk many, and the league will hit in the .230s off him. Borderline-dominant, and one of the better 8th inning guys in the game. There will be no “I should be closing” drama.

Feliciano

Pedro will contribute less than ever before, facing a lefty here and there. He won’t be left in to take lumps, but he also won’t be left in to dominate on the days when he has it working. If someone gets injured and Pedro has to face some righties, he’ll show he can be at least average against them. Facing lefties, he’ll hold down any slugging, but will walk too many to be truly great.

Sean Green

Won’t be any better than Feliciano, but will get a lot more work. Will vary between making hitters look bad and serving up meatballs, contributing some dominant streaks and some atrocious ones.

Stokes

Few walks, solid Ks, too many HRs. Will keep a few games close for us in the middle innings. Above average for a “back of the ‘pen” guy.

Redding will be average in long relief, poor in some spot starts, and then average in long relief again.

O’Day won’t impress enough to demand a roster spot once Redding’s healthy. Back to the Angels.

Ramon Castro

Some opponents have caught on to the fact that he murders hanging breaking balls, and the diet of fastballs will keep his AVG and OBP down. He’ll still out-homer Schneider. He won’t completely avoid injury, but he’ll be healthier than last year.

Alex Cora will make one or two big diving stops, causing announcers to gush about Omar’s brilliance. He’ll be useless otherwise.

Sheffield will either find an early PH groove and be a big asset all year, or start slow with bat and his defensive deficiency will cost him his roster spot. I’ll blindly guess the former.

Tatis will mostly play like last year, but a few slumps and irregular PT will decrease his impact.

Phillies 89-73
NYMets 89-73
Braves 88-74
Marlins 87-75
Nats 60-102

The NL East will be brutal. The top teams will beat each other up enough that really good performances will still fail to yield 90 wins. Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson will contend for MVP and Cy Young, keeping the Marlins in the mix despite poor defense and an erratic bullpen. The Braves won’t dominate in any one area, but will show great depth in all facets, with a good #7 hitter, #4 starter, and 7th inning relief. McCann will be an MVP favorite before fading late. The Phillies will be more like the pre-2008 Phillies, with unimpressive pitching but enough hitting to win any game. They will again play well down the stretch, and beat the Mets often enough to make up ground and end in a tie. The Mets, having lost the season series to the Phillies, will take the Wild Card, edging out the 88-win Cardinals. The Mets will benefit from the Cubs’ latest choke, and go on to lose to the Dodgers in the NLCS, coming up a couple of clutch hits short.

So, what do you all think?


3 Responses to “2009 Mets player predictions”

  1. Comment posted by John on April 13, 2009 at 7:58 pm (#951750)

    I got them with
    Runs Scored 845
    Runs Allowed 740

    And 92 wins.

  2. Comment posted by John on April 14, 2009 at 12:19 pm (#952403)

    Hitters

    Carlos Delgado 0.264 0.353 0.491 0.844
    Jose Reyes 0.295 0.357 0.462 0.819
    David Wright 0.308 0.399 0.529 0.928
    Carlos Beltran 0.275 0.364 0.502 0.866
    Daniel Murphy 0.289 0.377 0.414 0.791
    Luis Castillo 0.274 0.353 0.341 0.694
    Alex Cora 0.252 0.330 0.328 0.657
    Ryan Church 0.269 0.342 0.436 0.778
    Fernando Tatis 0.264 0.337 0.452 0.789
    Jeremy Reed 0.272 0.328 0.367 0.695
    Nick Evans 0.264 0.317 0.428 0.745
    Ramon Castro 0.241 0.313 0.443 0.756
    Brian Schneider0.252 0.329 0.377 0.706
    Robinson Cancel0.252 0.297 0.361 0.658
    Marlon Anderson0.266 0.315 0.407 0.722
    F! 0.256 0.301 0.426 0.727
    Angel Pagan 0.259 0.321 0.314 0.635
    Cory Sullivan 0.262 0.317 0.328 0.645
    Argenis Reyes 0.246 0.290 0.281 0.571

  3. Comment posted by John on April 14, 2009 at 12:23 pm (#952413)

    Pitchers

    Johan Santana 3.37
    John Maine 3.86
    Oliver Perez 4.10
    Mike Pelfrey 3.87
    Tim Redding 4.61
    Freddy Garcia 4.36
    Jon Niese 4.47
    Livian Hernandez 5.08
    K Rod 2.98
    JJ Putz 3.08
    Sean Green 3.62
    Pedro Feliciano 3.64
    Bobby Parnell 4.26
    Brian Stokes 4.27
    Nelson Figeroa 4.33
    Connor Robertson 3.83
    Casey Fossum 4.50
    Darren Oday 3.59

rss/syndication: