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December 4, 2008
Aaron Heilman: Addition by Standing Pat
Aaron Heilman and Mets fans have had a tumultuous relationship. Currently the goat of a disappointing 2008 finish, Heilman has asked for a bigger role in the Mets plans at a rather inopportune time. After his worst full season as a professional, his request to be inserted into the starting rotation has left Mets fans assuming Heilman has one foot out the door. As a Heilman supporter, I wonder what the worst that could happen is if the Mets let him eat 150 or 160 innings as their number five starter. I doubt any knowledgeable baseball person truly believes Heilman is as bad as his 2008 line indicates. Actually, Heilman’s 2008 season seems fluky more than anything else: Year ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 BABIP 2005 3.17 1.15 8.83 3.08 .290 2006 3.62 1.16 7.55 2.90 .283 2007 3.03 1.07 6.59 2.09 .263 2008 5.21 1.59 9.47 5.45 .326 With three nearly identical years followed by a disappointing 2008, common sense would say a 30-year old pitcher whose strikeout ratio was exceptional isn’t suddenly finished as a dependable pitcher. Whether Heilman is in need of a mechanical overhaul, or time to heal from nagging injuries, my bet would be for him to rebound in 2009. For those who believe he should be exiled or needs a change of scenery, I’ve come to believe this theory is more creative reasoning than fact. Heilman has not directly requested a trade and was arguably their most consistent bullpen arm during his three successful seasons. If anything, the Mets may be to blame for the mishandling of his career; he has wanted to start for a few years now, and his statistics never showed anything which would make one question whether or not Heilman could handle the additional workload. I understand Heilman’s delivery was rumored to be an injury waiting to happen leading to his role as a reliever, but his being one of the busiest middle men in the game over the past three seasons should somewhat dispel the notion. With the free agent market spiraling out of control when it comes to pitching, inserting Heilman into the rotation, from a financial and organizational standpoint, seems like a no-brainer. With him being under team control for two more years and likely to earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $2 million after arbitration, selling low on Heilman before giving him a shot is nothing more than idiocy. Consider these two scenarios: Worst case: Heilman stinks again and they cut bait with him for a little less than he would bring back in trade this offseason. Best case: Heilman has enough success to warrant a back-of-the-rotation spot. Jonathan Niese is allowed to develop slowly and becomes a better major leaguer because of it. In 2010, Heilman is either an underpaid starting pitcher or dealt for a quality prospect or two. Would anybody doubt Heilman’s ability to post a 4.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP if allowed to throw 150+ innings? I certainly wouldn’t since both statistics are below both his career averages and current 2009 projections, albeit as a reliever expected to throw between seventy and eighty innings. As a supporter of the Mets signing Derek Lowe for his consistency, remember Lowe followed up his lone 5.00+ ERA season with four, sub-4.00 seasons. Now I’m certainly not saying Heilman is as good as Lowe; I simply remember the Red Sox faithful running him out of town into the arms of the Dodgers in a decision the Red Sox have come to regret. With a thin farm system, the Mets just can’t afford to let Heilman walk for a song. The best comparison I can make to the Heilman situation is what the Cardinals did with Braden Looper. After a disappointing 2005 with the Mets, Looper signed with the Cardinals and was converted to the rotation after a year in their pen. Many questioned Looper’s repertoire and whether his stuff and arm could hold up. The results? 24 wins and 374 innings pitched over two seasons. The conversion of Braden Looper to a starter will earn him extra millions and extend his career quite a ways. I don’t blame Heilman for wanting a piece of the action. When comparing his possible value to the following pitchers, wouldn’t you? Kyle Lohse ($4.25 mil.) 200 IP, 3.78 ERA, 1.30 WHIP In addition to this list, many other grossly overpaid starting pitchers have been signed over the past few years. Click here to see where Aaron Heilman would rank among the top 20 free agent starting pitchers. As if this isn’t enough to make the Mets organization think twice, look at the haul the White Sox are likely to receive from the Braves for Javier Vazquez. At $11.5 million, Vazquez with his 4.67 ERA and 1.32 WHIP are rumored to have netted four prospects including a top 100 player and star of the Arizona Fall League in Tyler Flowers, former supplemental first rounder Jon Gilmore, former top 100 prospect Brent Lillibridge, and a relief prospect in Santos Rodriguez whose peripherals rival the best relief prospects the Mets have to offer. While Vazquez is a better pitcher than his 2008 would indicate and is a relative lock for 200 innings pitched, is he almost six times as valuable as Heilman in the rotation would be? I would say no. It’s time for the Mets to stop jerking Heilman around and give him a shot in the role he desperately wants to fill. 53 Responses to “Aaron Heilman: Addition by Standing Pat”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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As I recall, at one point in his career, Derek Lowe was a reliever who desperately wanted to start. I’m not saying I agree, exactly, with moving Heilman in to the rotation. Also, I thought I read somewhere that Manuel indicated Heilman was playing through an injury all season. True? Regardless, I’m iffy about him, now, anyway. There was a time when I thought he’d be the next closer. But he may do less damage as a starter.
I tried to read this but all the words blurred together and it stopped being about Aaron Heilman and it started being this long explanation by Patty Hearst about how great the Symbonese are if you just get to know them.
Seriously. There is some serious weird Stockholm Syndrome codependence weirdness in any kind of argument for keeping Aaron Heilman.
If you could trade him for a plugged nickel, at least you would have a plug in case something needed plugging.
There are times and places where numbers build into an argument and there are times and places are dig up and twisted to support an argument that isn’t there.
If you paid attention last season, it is abundantly clear that if you traded this guy for box seats to a Long Island Ducks game, the GM of the Long Island Ducks would eventually forced to commit hari-kari with the katana his own grandfather forged for him on the day he was declared a ninja.
So great would be the shame.
Let it go. A girl cheats on you and you take her back and then it happens again and you take her back again? You’re just accepting that she’s gonna pitch terribly for the rest of your relationship.
I mean, sleep around. Whichever.
I gotta give it to Mr. Newman, he is a brave soul. Two prior to the 6 o’clock hour, but there will be more. And watch out for the profanity laced posts! For some reason I see Dep typing one of those…
LMAO….brilliant analogy, LFM!
Seriously, I couldn’t have put it better myself!
What is his 2009 projection
Bill James has it as 3.82 and Marcels has him 4.25. Coverting those numbers into starters the rule is add 1.00 so 4.82 and 5.25. Thats not great.
Where do you get that from John? In the relievers turned starters I researched, this was not the case.
Usually I can do some research, think about it, and come up with a decision pretty quickly for a decision like this (Should the Mets let Heilman start?). But I’m still on the fence.
Props to you Mike for tackling the subject. You could’ve simply wrote “Aaron Heilman.” and it would elicit dozens of comments, haha.
The problem with Heilman is that even when he is putting up good numbers as a reliever, he is most doing it in low leverage situations. Go check out Heilman’s splits in low, medium and high leverage situations. They tell quite the story. This is why some Mets fans hate Aaron. He has choked, bottom line. When the stakes go up, he shrinks. There is literally not a single season in Aaron’s career where his high leverage numbers are not worse than his numbers in medium and low leverage situations.
So I’m not feeling too confident that the Mets giving him a more prominent role as a starter will result in getting the best out of Aaron. He’s probably best served to eat up innings to save the rest of the bullpen and only occasionally be used in high leverage spots when the rest of the BP is burned up.
Aaron, the team and the Mets fans are best served by his being traded.
Danny has it nailed. Dude can’t pitch in high leverage situations.
If he can’t get 3 outs (or even 1 in some cases), how can we expect him to get 18?
everything’s been said!
Just as a side note, as I recall the Red Sox didn’t run Lowe out of town. He capitalized on an outstanding postseason by signing with the Dodgers as a free agent. He just came off having a few excellent starts in the Sox’s World Series win and basically had exorcised his demons.
It’s not a hard rule. Certainly you can go through and find relievers that turned starters that were posted better numbers than that 1 run difference. It’s just in Heilman’s case, like danny noted, he’s performed worse in high leverage situations. I just think its dangerous to give a guy like that twice as many innings.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/soria_as_a_starter/
I was trying to find the reasoning behind it but I think it’s all layed out in the Book. When I can go home I’ll look and see.
Derek Lowe’s ERA actually dropped a full run during his first year as a starter.
Braden Looper’s jumped a run in his first year as a starter, but wound up at less than half a run during his 2nd year as a starter.
Justin Duchscherer also dropped by half a run from his last full season after transitioning to starter.
Dempster just received a 52 million dollar deal after his ERA dropped 1.8 runs.
I can be arbitrary too with numbers which aren’t steeped in facts and statistics too.
As for the clutch argument…is a #5 starter really a clutch spot? Doesn’t this actually argue the opposite as in he’s better in low pressure situations with a 5th starter being lower pressure than an 8th inning set up man?
Do we think that pitchers really view themselves as this tho? Like I don’t think Aaron Heilman will take the mound thinking “ok im the 5th guy, I shouldnt feel much pressure cause its not expected of me to be outstanding”…….I think all starters view themselves as the number 1 guy when they are pitching.
Heilmans LI last year was 1.35……high. As a starter it will actually be LOWER. However, right now Heilman has zero confidence in his changeup and cannot get lefties out at all…i just see this as a very bad fit for him….prehaps if he can ever redevelop his change he can be a decent starter in the future but I just dont see any evidence with that way that he has pitched to support it.
The evidence would be the fact he has been better the more he has pitched.
Additionally, his rumored tendinitis problems last season were likely hurt by his warming up during so many games. Throw him every 5th or 6th day and the tendinitis is much easier to keep under control.
As a starter he had a 5.93 in 133 innings
As a reliever he had a 3.52 in 316 innings
I like the fact he K’s alot of batters. I definitely believe the walks will go back down.
I do not like the fact that his GB% has declined every year since 2004.
I do not like that face that he can’t control his changeup anymore.
Heilman is better than what he did in 2008, but by how much and can he be an effective starter is the question. Im just not sure.
It’s not only Heilman’s changeup that he can’t control. His fastball command was really poor last year.
I don’t see any evidence that he’s going to be anywhere close to a league average starter.
And his fastball velocity will be less as a starter to boot.
A #5 may not be an ace, but how many starts were lost by trotting out mediocre #5 starters the last 3 seasons?
What is the toll on the bullpen when the #5 starter can last only 5 innings, with the occassional 6 inning start? Especially with Maine and Pelfrey being question marks?
I’d prefer they pick up a # 2 or 3, and slide Maine and Pelfrey down a spot, making the rotation deeper.
A rotation of
Santana
Lowe
Perez
Maine
Pelfrey
would be nice lol.
Come on John….these are numbers when he was just coming up as a starter. Glavine had an over 5.00 ERA during his first 130 IP and he turned out to be a hall of famer. Pelfrey blew his first two partial seasons and now look at him. This is a totally unfair assessment.
I agree with Mike that Heilman could probably be a decent 5th starter. At the very least he could compete with Neise for the 5th spot.
One thing I know for sure is I don’t want to see Heilman in the Mets bullpen next season. Either trade him or let him start.
Ed,
I agree 100%. I’m not saying to only insert Heilman and roll the dice. I’ve been a very strong proponent of signing Derek Lowe to take pressure off of the entire rotation.
However, rushing Niese or signing a 6 million dollar number five makes no sense when a guy who can be a 2 million dollar #5 is already on the roster. Not to mention the fact that selling on Heilman now would be at half the value compared to the same time last season. It NEVER makes sense to sell low.
As I said in the article, I don’t think anybody would argue with Heilman being able to attain a 4.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. A.J. Burnett is going to get 16-18 million per with a 4.07 ERA and 1.34 WHIP and he won 18 games. There’s absolutely no reason Heilman can’t win 12-14 games as a #5 and would instantly become one of the better #5’s around. Take a look at what other teams are throwing out there every 5th or 6th day.
I would rather roll the dice on a 2 year deal for Sheets than give Lowe 4 years. But brining in a #2 starter should be priority #2 (after a closer).
Isn’t that really the high water mark for Heilman? If he went sub-4 ERA that would stun me. I agree he will eat innings, but I think it’s more likely Heilman is a 5.00 ERA and 1.4 WHIP guy.
Is it worth it to pay a little more to get somebody who’s a good bet to be better than that as your #5? I think so.
the only thing i don’t agree with in the entire article is that a change of scenery would not do aaron good. in his mind, aaron is toeing the rubber for the white sox or tigers right now… that is just basic human psychology.
but if omar is going to be stubborn and keep aaron around, what harm could it to do to give aaron a shot at starting come spring time
is omar so afraid to be proven wrong. i had heard the wartho & li’l jerry are both ready to let aaron start…
I’m not saying he’s going to have an ERA close to 6. I’m simply saying he does not have a good track record and as a reliever he’s been getting worse as the years have gone by. If he had a good year, prehaps I’d be more receptive to letting him start.
Free Heilman!! Unfortunately, Omar et al are very stubborn about giving him a chance at starting. Let him pitch somewhere else as a starter. I am confident that he’ll do really well.
Who is available that would be a good bet to put up better #s than Heilman as a 5th starter that will only cost “a little more”?
I’m not saying there isn’t anybody, I’m just wondering if you have anybody in mind - because I can’t think of any off the top of my head. Maybe Randy Wolf or Randy Johnson? But they are both enormous injury risks, and Wolf will probably get a multi-year deal.
i agree. the relationship has run its course. it is just time to move on. aaron has been with the mets for a long, long time by today’s standards. it is time for pcs orders to a new duty station for a fresh start. i’d bet aaron’s preferences would be chicago, milw, clev, detroit or st louis
Guys like Kyle Lohse fall through the cracks every offseason and are available for 1-year cheap deals where the pitcher wants to resuscitate his value. Omar needs to be creative, instead of overpaying for an Innings Eater™ like Jon Garland.
The way he pitched last year when ANYTHING was on the line, if he’s so committed to a Midwestern club, I think the list is less “Cubs, Brewers” and more “Clippers, Mudhens”.
I hear the Mudhens have a good chance at the title this year….
i seriously wonder if aaron would prefer to start in aaa or do bullpen work in the bigs…
Just for everyone that uses Greasemonkey here to filter out “undesirables”:
If Heilman would agree to start in AAA to become a starter, I think that would be the best thing for everyone involved. Little chance of that happening though.
if aaron does not do well given a shot to start in ST, the above is a fair question for omar to ask aaron
ohhhh damn so thats why i never see any of rene’s posts :)
John & Mike,
There’s an interesting discussion of relievers converted into starters at Inside the Book. Tangotiger mentions the rule of thumb that John mentions - that you should add 1.00 to a reliever’s ERA when converting him into a starter.
Also, see this piece by Nate Silver. He writes that:
Yeah I linked that. I thought I read it in “The Book”……I knew I read it somewhere lol. When I get home, I browse through it and see if I can find it in there.
It’s been a while, but just a reality check for all the Heilman supporters-
THE LIST OF THOSE WHO WILL START FOR THE METS BEFORE AARON HEILMAN-
Niese, Vargas, Parnell, Knight, Figueroa, Stokes, Stoner, Gee, Owen, Antonini, Holt, Moviel, Niesen, Rustich, KUNZ, Shaw, Mejia, Carson, Bostick, Ty Cobb, Tom Seaver, Doc Gooden, 3 kids from your neighborhood little league team.
lol ty cobb
I missed Gus Glooms lists
OMG! Gus, I miss you. Your post made my day…
1. because it was great hearing from you
2. love, love, love those posts!
They need to do the trade for Street, Heilman and hopefully something less than Feliciano, Sign K-Rod, sign Ayala, or possible C. cordero. That gives you K-Rod, Street, Smith, Feliciano, and 3 of{Ayala, Cordero, Sanchez, Vargas, Parnell, Figueroa, Stokes, Kunz, …} would be a more solid pen than last season, by far.
Hi guys, just get busy and don’t get here as often as I’d like, good to hear from you, too.
They should keep him simply because they won’t get anything form him. If he has a good few months, then trade him.
That is the problem with Heilman… he’s less than worthless, you’d have to give up something good on top to get someone else to take him.
Cut him, give him his gold watch and mazeltov if the dude somehow magically learns how not to suck somewhere else.
Whatever his potential used to be, it is abundantly clear that if there is a shred of it left… and I’m not saying there is… it would need to be regained in colours other than orange and blue.
A couple of things about the 1.00 rule and 25%
Another poster said Heilman’s career as a reliever was 3.52 including his horrible 2008. If you do the math, 25% = 4.40 and 1.00 = 4.52.
Additionally, the examples used in links included Soria and Papelbon who throw about 65 IP. Heilman has averaged 20 IP more per season so I’d argue there’s a big difference in asking a guy to go from 65 IP to 160 innings or 85 innings to 160 innings. Even if the 1.00 or 25% is true for a reliever who throws an average of 65 IP or so, Heilman has logged more innings than the average reliever meaning he will stay stronger for longer causing his ERA to rise .7 or .8 and 15-20% instead of the full 1.00 or 25%.
The Aaron Defense Committee of One (?) heartily endorses this article.
I don’t necessarily love Heilman, but if Neise would be the fifth starter, I am all for Heilman taking that spot instead. Why not let Heilman eat up the innings for such a low price while Neise gets to develop more in the minors. How many times have we seen players rushed? Let Neise stay down there a little longer so we can enjoy his success in the future. Heilman will do the trick for now if it is between him and Neise. However, if we can sign two starters like a Lowe or Perez and a Garland or even Pedro for 1 year, then I am all for trading Heilman. His time in our pen is done. If this were the case I’d love to see him worked in a deal for Street.
If the question is between Heilman and Neise for the 5th starter spot I think you almost have to go to Heilman first and give him 10 starts or so and replace him with Neise if you can’t. The problem with this discussion is that I like this idea alot if we have a dependable guy replacing Perez (like Lowe for example), but I don’t like this at all if we have to have someone like Garland or Pedro in that slot.
Not for nothing, but Aaron did have 3 strait good years where his BB and K/BB totals improved each year. yes he had a horrid year last year and yes we all get agita in the big spot, but he did everything he was asked for 3 years running.