The list of former Mets newly eligible in 2009 for induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame is short but distinguished. The five players appearing on the ballot are as follows:

Jay Bell, SS/2B
David Cone, P
Rickey Henderson, OF
Jesse Orosco, P
Mo Vaughn, 1B

A player becomes Hall of Fame eligible five years after retirement, assuming he played at least ten seasons in the major leagues. A screening committee weeds out former players who meet the criteria, but generally have no shot at election. Included in this group are former Mets Pat Mahomes, Rick Reed, and Mike Bordick. Click here to see the full 2009 ballot. Candidates receiving votes on 75% of ballots are inducted. It’s always entertaining to see the voting results, because there is always some ridiculous voter who gives a vote to the likes of Bell. Just last year, Chuck Knoblauch and Todd Stottlemyre received votes. However, it’s pretty safe to say that the only member of this crew who will be inducted in 2009 is Henderson. His career numbers speak for themselves–127 OPS+, an all-time record 2295 runs scored, and an all-time record 1406 stolen bases. Just for fun, I’m going to make a case for and predict the fate of the three other former Mets, excluding Bell.

David Cone
17 seasons, 2898.2 IP, 3.46 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 120 ERA+, 2.35 K/BB, 1.26 WHIP

Cone is generally remembered for his years with the Yankees, but the five seasons he pitched for the Mets from 1987 to 1992 were remarkable. His first full season as a starter in 1988 was Dwight Gooden-esque: 231.1 IP, a 2.22 ERA, and 2.66 K/BB. He was traded to the Blue Jays in late 1992 for future Hall of Famer Jeff Kent, and deservedly won the Cy Young Award for the Royals in 1994. His career numbers are similar to Tom Glavine’s, outside of significant differences in wins and innings pitched—Cone might be a first ballot Hall of Famer if only he had Glavine’s durability. From 1988 to 1999, Cone posted an ERA+ lower than 111 just once, another impressive achievement. Although I don’t believe he deserves induction, the voters tend to overvalue strong postseason performance (3.80 postseason ERA in 111 IP, five World Series rings) and memorable moments, such as his perfect game. If he had three more dominant seasons, his case would be stronger. Nevertheless, Cone has an outside shot of admission maybe ten years down the line. If it happens, I fully expect to see the Coneheads sitting in the front row at his induction ceremony.

Completely arbitrary chance of eventual induction: 20%

Jesse Orosco
24 seasons, 1295 IP, 3.16 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 125 ERA+, 2.03 K/BB, 1.26 WHIP

Orosco’s best years came in the early 1980s with the Mets. His finest season was 1983, and I named it the best single-season performance by a Mets closer. He teamed with Roger McDowell to create one of the best 1-2 punches out of the bullpen during the decade; in 1986, they combined to pitch 209 highly-effective innings. As he pitched into the 1990s, Orosco became more of a “lefty one out guy” (LOOGY)—in 1999, he made 65 appearances but logged just 32 innings pitched. While the image of Orosco throwing his glove in the air after the last out of the 1986 World Series is iconic and helps his case, his career performance does not warrant Hall of Fame induction. Additionally, the Hall is stingy when it comes to admitting relief pitchers, mainly because the importance of relievers is a relatively new part of the game. There are just five relief pitchers in the Hall: Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, and Goose Gossage. Orosco’s numbers are similar to Gossage’s, although Goose pitched about 500 more innings. Gossage also had more individually dominant years. I think Orosco will get a few votes from nostalgic Met-fan voters, but his chances of ever receiving the 75% are slim.

Completely arbitrary chance of eventual induction: 1.986%

Mo Vaughn
12 seasons, .293/.383/.523, 132 OPS+, 328 HR, 1064 RBI

The one-and-a-half seasons Vaughn played in Flushing to finish his career were forgettable, but as a member of the Red Sox from 1993 to 1998 he was one of the best hitters in the game. During this period, Vaughn never posted an OPS+ below 139 or an OBP below .388. He won the MVP Award in 1995 (albeit undeservedly—Albert Belle should have won), and the Hall voters love players with awards on their resume. Vaughn was a no-brainer future Hall of Famer in 1998, despite his poor defense. However, after leaving Boston for the Anaheim Angels, his career fell apart. Injuries plagued him and implication in the Mitchell Report as a performance enhancing drug user didn’t help his case. I’ll never forget his bomb homer off the Budweiser ad on the scoreboard at Shea, but Vaughn likely comes up short on a Hall of Fame bid.

Completely arbitrary chance of eventual induction: 10%

For the record, my hypothetical 2009 ballot would include votes for Bert Blyleven, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, and Alan Trammell. One final thought: imagine the awkwardness of the Hall of Fame induction ceremony in 2013, assuming both Mike Piazza and Roger Clemens are elected.