The Mets project three definite starting pitchers in their 2009 rotation: Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, and John Maine. They need to fill two spots via trade, free agency, or from within the organization. The contract demands and rumors surrounding the “big four” free agent starters (C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez), have been well documented, so I took a look at underrated second-tier starters who are, or are reported to be, available.

I used the statistic “fielding independent pitching” (FIP) to evaluate available pitchers. This stat provides a pitcher’s expected earned run average (ERA), based on strikeout, walk and homerun rates. It is superior to ERA for predicting future performance, as it eliminates two major variables of ERA – the quality of defense played behind the pitcher and luck. I listed the 2008 ERA and FIP for each pitcher below, and considered line-drive percentage (LD%) and batting average on balls in play (BABIP) as well.

Available Via Trade

Nate Robertson, LHP, Tigers
2008 ERA: 6.35
2008 FIP: 4.99

Robertson was not nearly as awful in 2008 as his ERA suggests. His BABIP was an absurdly high .343. BABIP usually normalizes in the .290-.300 range for pitchers. His (LD%) of 18.8% was actually quite good, meaning the high BABIP was a result of bad luck and poor defense. Oliver Perez’s FIP in 2008 was 4.68, so replacing him with Robertson would not be a large downgrade. Robertson could be useful as a number four or five starter, especially if the cost to acquire him is low and the Tigers agree to eat some of the $17 million he is owed over the next two seasons.

Andy Sonnanstine, RHP, Rays
2008 ERA: 4.38
2008 FIP: 3.91

It’s surprising that Sonnanstine’s ERA did not outperform his FIP, as the Rays defense rated top-5 in baseball according to most defensive metrics. His LD% was an impressive 17%, meaning his .312 BABIP was unlucky. Sonnanstine is a 25-year-old control specialist, as his 1.72 BB/9 was good for seventh in the AL this year. He reminds me of former Met Rick Reed, and the pitching-rich Rays could deem him expendable.

Javier Vazquez, RHP, White Sox
2008 ERA: 4.67
2008 FIP: 3.74

Vazquez fell out of favor with White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen because of his failure to perform in “pressure” situations. Yes, Vazquez was awful in his final three starts of the 2008 season: 12 IP, 18 H, 7 BB, 18 ER. The part of this story the anti-Vazquez crowd fails to mention is that two of these three starts were made on three days’ rest, which is something Vazquez had done just twice in his career prior to 2008. Vazquez has had the bad luck of pitching for some poor defensive teams (the early 2000s Expos, the 2007-2008 White Sox), leading to inflated ERAs, which don’t accurately represent how good he’s been. Put him down for 33 starts, 200 IP, and a 3.20 K/BB. Check out my post at Mets Tailgate for more on Vazquez.

Free Agents

Odalis Perez, LHP, Nationals
2008 ERA: 4.34
2008 FIP: 4.62

The other “O-Perez” on the market pitched 159.2 league-average innings for the Nationals last season. He proved to be a valuable pickup for the Nats, as he cost only $850,000. He’s still just 31 years old and hasn’t lost anything off of his 88-mph fastball in the last three years. Perez was good enough to be the second starter on the Nats, but on the 2009 Mets he would certainly be the fifth starter. A multi-year deal would be inappropriate, but a one-year deal might provide a better option than Jon Niese at the back end of the rotation.

Ben Sheets, RHP, Brewers
2008 ERA: 3.09
2008 FIP: 3.38

It’s a stretch to describe Sheets as a second-tier pitcher, considering his Type A free agent status and, when healthy, his dominant performance. Among active pitchers, his 3.85 K/BB is third-best, and his 1.97 BB/9 is fifth-best. The big question mark is his health: he’s been on and off the DL with various issues (strained hamstring, shoulder tendonitis, forearm tightness) the last four seasons. The health problems are the reason he could be underrated. The Mets would be wise to track other teams’ interest in Sheets, as injury concerns could make him available at a discounted price and for fewer years than the big free agents will command. However, luring a pitcher born in Louisiana who has pitched his entire pro career in Milwaukee to New York could be a tough task.

Randy Wolf, LHP, Astros
2008 ERA: 4.30
2008 FIP: 4.17

Like Sheets, Wolf has battled injury. He had Tommy John surgery in 2005, and underwent shoulder surgery in 2007. Wolf hasn’t thrown 200 innings in a season since 2003, but his 190.1 in 2008 came close. All of his peripheral stats this season were right in line with his career averages, so it’s possible he is fully recovered from the arm procedures. He’s killed the Mets in his career (175 IP, 3.77 FIP), so signing Wolf would mean one less crafty lefty for the lineup to worry about. At age 32, he’s not a dinosaur just yet, but anything more than a two- or three-year contract would be too risky.

Recommendations

In addition to aggressive pursuit of the durable Lowe (32+ starts in each of the last seven seasons), I would support a trade to acquire the supposedly available Vazquez. He is a proven commodity without history of injury. He would benefit from a switch to the NL and the fact that he would no longer have a lunatic as his manager. Considering the injury woes of Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez during the last two seasons, the Mets will probably be hesitant to sign Sheets or Wolf. Also, I think Niese is at least a year away, and would benefit from a full season at Triple-A. A rotation of Santana, Lowe, Pelfrey, Vazquez, and Maine would be the best in the NL, top to bottom.