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November 23, 2008
  
Pitchers A, B, & C

When comparing potential acquisitions, whether through free agency or trade, our judgements are often based on our preconceptions about the player– Ok, call them prejudices if you will. So let´s compare three pitchers who might be available to the Mets this winter. I´ve compared three year averages of basic stats. It´s not a terribly sophisticated analysis – I haven´t adjusted for ballparks or anything else. I´m not including W/L for the moment, as that is dependant on the team´s offense and the pen.

Pitcher A: 3.58 ERA, 33 GS, 209 IP, 203 H, 53BB, 139K;

6.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 2.6 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP

Pitcher B: 4.42 ERA, 32 GS, 206 IP, 203 H, 56BB, 199K;8.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 3.6 K/BB, 1.25 WHIP

Pitcher C:  4.78 ERA, 28 GS, 161 IP, 150 H, 84BB, 152K;

8.5 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 1.8 K/BB, 1.45 WHIP

The initial look at our 3 pitchers shows that Pitcher A has a lower ERA and lower Ks than Pitcher B, but are remarkably similar in IP, H, and WHIP. Pitcher C clearly lags in all categories except K/9, is has very high walk totals.

OK, now some additional facts. Pitchers A and B are righties, Pitcher C is a lefty. A is 35, B is 32, and C is 27. A and C are free agents, B would have to be acquired in trade. Probable committments:

A: 3-4 years, $16 mil per.

B: 2 years, about $12 mil per.

3: 3-4 years, about $13-14 mil per.

Got it yet? 

Pitcher A is Derek Lowe. W/L avg 14-11.

Pitcher B is Javier Vazquez. W/L avg 13-12.

Pitcher C is Ollie Perez. W/L avg (3yr)9-10; (2 yr)13-9.

(Note: in 2006, OllieP spent the first half of the season in Pittsburgh, where his numbers were brutal. If you do a 2 year avg, his Numbers are 3.89ERA, 32GS, 186IP, 160H, 92BB, 177K, 8.6K/9, 4.5BB/9, 1.9K/BB, and a 1.36WHIP. So there´s some improvement, but he´s still not at the level of the other guys, and still walks way too many.)

(Another note: I haven´t looked at team defense or GB vs FB tendencies. If I recall, Lowe is a GB pitcher and Vazquez is a FB pitcher, but I could be wrong. We don´t know how CitiField will play anyway. At least the Mets´ defense is pretty good.)

While Lowe is a known target for Omar(call him Plan A after acquiring a closer), he´s also in the sights of the Yankees, Boston, Atlanta, and probably a few other teams too. It´s really up in the air as to whether we could sign him. Perez, in spite of his shortcomings, could be a consolation prize for a number of teams that can´t afford, or lose out on, CC, Lowe, and Burnett. So if we don´t get Lowe, the big question is What is Plan B? What will Kenny Williams of the CWS  want for Vasquez, in addition to the payroll relief. Will it be worth the price in prospects? Do you want to bet on Ollie improving, or want to come back to NY? Is his production OK for a #4 or 5 slot? Are there other pitchers out there that Omar could acquire in trade? Would Omar be comfortable with Ben Sheets on a short term deal for a #4 or #5 slot in the rotation? Or the lurking question in the background: can Pelfrey and Maine handle the #2 and #3 slots (Pelf due to lack of history, and Maine due to health), or do we really need a #2 instead of a #4/5?

Too many questions, too little action so far this winter. I can´t wait for the pieces to begin to fall into place. The suspense is killing me…


13 Responses to “Pitchers A, B, & C”

  1. Comment posted by WilmerWillArriveSoon on November 23, 2008 at 6:31 pm (#898117)

    I wouldn’t touch Sheets: Type A free agent.
    Trevor Hoffman is a Type B. Now can someone clarify: I think that means if we sign him, we don’t lose any picks, they just get one. If this is the case, there is no reason to not sign him as a SET UP man, not closer.

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  3. Comment posted by MetsFanSince71 on November 23, 2008 at 7:57 pm (#898122)

    Good journal, Dave! Lots of food for thought laid out here….

    What will Kenny Williams of the CWS want for Vasquez, in addition to the payroll relief. Will it be worth the price in prospects?

    I’m troubled by the prospect of Williams fleecing us in a trade. If we do a deal with the Sox for Vasquez, Jenks (for setup) must be included imho. Although I’m still weary of both pitchers. Inning-eaters are nice, but we need guys who miss bats – both in the rotation and the pen.

    So if we don’t get Lowe, the big question is What is Plan B?

    I think free agent Plan B is Ollie Perez. I think the Mets (and a few others) are waiting to see the market price on Ollie. That won’t be set until CC, Burnett, Lowe, and Sheets sign.

  4. Comment posted by Metsrbest on November 23, 2008 at 8:08 pm (#898124)

    Just looking at the numbers Javier Vazquez is the guy i want. It was close with Lowe but Vazquez has mor K’s and a better ratio. Vazquez’s ERA will go down being in the NL and being a #4 starter is less preasure then a #1 or 2. We all know how good he can be seeing him with the expos. As far as closer goes it’s easy. K-ROD!!!! Who is going to bid against the mets? I would like to say go get Manny too but that won’t happen. The mets should sign Hudson for 2B and Ibanez for RF. Trade Castillo for a bag of balls and Church for bullpen help. (Church doesnt want to be in NY). Hielman could bring in some bullpen help. Maybe Heilman to Tampa for Bradford back? What ever the mets do i just hope Omar doesnt ignore the bullpen for the 3rd straight year.

    WilmerWillArriveSoon
    Do you really think the career saves leader will really take a demotion?

  5. Comment posted by Metsrbest on November 23, 2008 at 8:15 pm (#898127)

    How about Garland who played for the Angels? Maybe cheaper than lowe and you dont have to trade prospects like Vazguez. Any other ideas?

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  7. Comment posted by Alex Nelson on November 23, 2008 at 11:55 pm (#898142)

    Trevor Hoffman is a Type B. Now can someone clarify: I think that means if we sign him, we don’t lose any picks, they just get one. If this is the case, there is no reason to not sign him as a SET UP man, not closer.

    Correct. Type A free agents result in the surrender of the signing team’s highest eligible draft pick, plus the award of a supplemental pick between rounds 1 and 2.

    Type B’s just award the supplemental pick; the team making the signing loses nothing.

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  9. Comment posted by MetsFanSince71 on November 24, 2008 at 9:09 am (#898159)

    The mets should sign Hudson for 2B and Ibanez for RF. Trade Castillo for a bag of balls and Church for bullpen help. (Church doesnt want to be in NY).

    Ibanez is a HORRIBLE defender! No way I stick him right field.

    You’ve been listening to Fatcessa too much, Church never said he wants out of NY.
    In fact, he’s said the exact opposite, that he’d like to finish his career with the Mets.

  10. Comment posted by Gina on November 24, 2008 at 5:07 pm (#898548)

    Pitcher D: 4.30 ERA, 33 GS, 190.1, 191 H, 71BB, 162K;
    7.66 K/9 3.36 BB/9 2.28 K/B 1.38 WHIP

    Type B free agent

  11. Comment posted by Dave in Spain on November 24, 2008 at 6:57 pm (#898604)

    OK Gina, we give up…

  12. Comment posted by Gina on November 24, 2008 at 8:13 pm (#898606)

    My bad I meant to put it in the post, then I distracted and forgot. It’s Randy Wolf.

  13. Comment posted by MetsTailgate on November 25, 2008 at 12:16 am (#898648)

    Nice work Dave, my column today looks like plagiarism after reading this, haha. (I assure you I did not read this before writing my thing)

    If the Mets can swindle Ken Williams for Vazquez, I will be a happy Met fan. Enjoy Las Ramblas.

  14. Comment posted by Dave in Spain on November 25, 2008 at 1:33 pm (#898817)

    Ah, you´ve been to Barcelona MetsTailgate! Thanks for the compliments– great minds think alike!

  15. Comment posted by Anais on December 1, 2008 at 12:25 am (#899543)

    If the Mets can get Vazquez for a halfway-reasonable price, I really hope Omar does it. He’s always had good stuff and good peripherals; he should benefit hugely from moving to a pitcher’s park in the NL with a top-notch defensive CF.

  16. Comment posted by Dave in Spain on December 3, 2008 at 7:48 am (#900939)

    Oh well, Vazquez is gone…

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