After posting my first journal here on Metsgeek.com and thoroughly astounding my friends and family with my supposed knowledge of baseball and organizational planning, subsequently followed by my undressing by some of my fellow frequenters of this site I discovered several things about myself. I learned I didn’t know as much as I thought I did, especially when it comes to the rules about Type A and Type B free agents as well as my remarkably related ability to incite discussion about whether or not my ignorance in this field would actually affect my plan or not. Probably my most disturbing moment of self discovery was when my inability to determine a Carlos from a Jose reared its ugly head. I have since seen several professionals in this area and am working to make sure such confusion does not reprise in the future. All these and more led to a choice: to either write another article or turn tail never to be heard from again all the while repressing my self doubt until it spills over into a plethora of self deprecating humor that would make Rodney Dangerfield roll over. Despite how enjoyable the latter might actually be, I decided instead to subject you all to more of my writing. Sorry.

In this article I would like to take a moment to look at Daniel “Dropkick” Murphy, doing my best to come up with a different nickname for him every time I mention his name. I am a big fan of Dan “The Man”, but I attempt to remain objective while taking as in depth a look at him as a philistine such as myself can manage.

One thing that everyone has agreed on about Dan “cing with the stars” Murphy since he first garnered attention last season was that the kid could hit a little bit. OK, that is an understatement; he is quite a polished hitter very much in the Edgardo Alfonzo mold of high average, high OBP, low strikeouts and solid gap power with the ability to do the little things such as hit behind the runner and providing long at bats. He may never be the fielder Fonzie but I’m sure most Mets fans will be willing to forgive that if he can be the hard-nosed rally starter that Edgardo was most of his years in New York.

Murphy’s “Law” childhood idol was Tony Gwynn, and there are some legitimate comparisons in the bat department there as well when it comes to approach and, to some extent, production. Despite his love for Gwynn, Murphy is a natural third baseman, where Alfonzo played his first few years, before being moved to the outfield like his hero this season. The transition created more than a few interesting moments in the field. One question that has left some Mets fans restless in the wee hours is if Murphy “Bed” should follow Alfonzo’s crow hops to second base at Shea or try to learn to patrol the outfield with a portion of the skill of Gwynn had in his days before retiring and discovering a love of pie.

The obvious thing to consider while making this choice is the differences between the two positions. I will defer to Beyondtheboxscore.com for metrics here. I am not half the geek I play on TV and although I find statistical analysis to be an interesting read, I do not have the time or knowledge to put together my own stat sets. According to BTBS by way of hardball times, the offensive replacement level for 2B is -22.5 runs where as the replacement level for a LF is -12.5, a full 10 run difference. This simply states something any baseball fan can tell you; a good hitter at LF is a great hitter at 2B.

If Dan “Add Nickname Here” Murphy had managed to keep up his production over 600 PA’s he would have managed an impressive 47.5 BRAR against the league replacement player. When adjusted for LF this would be a 40 BRAR, making him tied with Jack Cust and Carlos (or is it Jose?) Lee for 8^th in offensive production according to beyondtheboxscore’s yearly positional rankings. Unfortunately BTBS also tells us in a different article that according to his PMR and RAA Murphy is one of the worst left fielders in baseball clocking in at 7^th and 8^th respectively. Our eyes tell us an even bleaker story, as “Not Eddie or Charlie” Murphy was usually an adventure in left to say the least. If over a full season his play in left was as bad as Raul Ibanez (who was ranked slightly ahead of him in both PMR and RAA) his overall value would be 23 runs, which would put him in a tie for 15^th in value amongst LF, middle of the road amongst would be starters.

Had he achieved the same production from second base his adjusted BRAR would be an even 50 (boy, am I lucking out with these round numbers). This would tie him for second offensively amongst second sackers with Dustin Pedroia and Brian Roberts according to BTBS. Clearly he would not provide the defense of either of those two terrific players, but even if he found a way to be as awful at 2^nd as he is in left, he would manage an overall value of 33 runs; good for a tie for 8^th amongst would be major league starters. This is just conjecture, but I would have to believe that the transition from third, his natural position, to second would be a more comfortable one that and would make him a far more serviceable fielder at second than he is in left. Even if he managed to tie for the worst defensive second base starter in FRAR, he would gain 11 runs onto that total, good enough to put him at 5^th place in the second base ranks just behind Dan Uggla. Compare this to what the Mets had at second last year (Argenis Reyes, Luis Castillo and Damon Easley combined for a staggering -18 runs at second) or even Orlando Hudson, who fell to 21^st place in production at his position with only 13 runs to call his own.

All of this is assuming Daniel “Don’t call me Danny” Murphy’s bat had remained constant throughout a full season. With any drop off in that production we find the margin widen in his value at second VS his value at left. He could loose a full 10 runs off his ORAR and still be in the middle of the road amongst second baseman in the game, while the same loss of production would make him worse than a full year of Fernando Tatis starting in left. Nothing I have said here has been particularly earth shattering, or anything that many fans including myself have said even without the statistical analysis, so here is where I say the thing sure to start the flame war and death threats. With his current perceived value being what it is, if the Mets are for some reason unwilling to start him at second in 2009, they should be willing to trade Dan “Danny-Danny Bo Banny” Murphy.