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November 17, 2008
The Offseason Manifesto
1) Focus on the guys on the market who can really make a difference. I guess this is pretty blatantly obvious, but it should probably be pointed out again: the Mets got back into contention when they pieced together the money and prospects to land Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Pedro Martinez, and Billy Wagner. A few years later, the pitchers are no longer difference-makers due to injuries, but Beltran has been a key cog in the Mets’ order and Delgado has been an effective first baseman in two of his three seasons for the Mets. This offseason, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixiera, Manny Ramirez, Francisco Rodriguez, and Brian Fuentes are free agents. The Mets are in on the relievers but are apparently willing to forego the top three for the most part (they have been linked to Sabathia as I’m writing this article but most people believe it is a ploy to drive up the price for the Yankees). In addition to this, Matt Holliday was and Jake Peavy still is on the market, and the Mets have not gone in hard on either of them. Especially puzzling was the lack of pursuit on Holliday, who fits the Mets’ needs in left field almost perfectly, right down to being a good defensive player and good on the basepaths. And, at 29 next year, he is everything the Mets probably hope Fernando Martinez becomes. I’m more than a bit frustrated with the Mets not focusing on the top guys on the market outside of the bullpen. Yeah, Carlos Delgado is a good first baseman, but he is not Mark Teixiera and should the team be fortunate enough to land the latter, Delgado has enough trade value to bring back something. No, Manny Ramirez will never be good with the glove, but neither are any of the other left fielders on the market (Ibanez, Burrell, etc) that are anywhere near his bat. CC Sabathia will be 28, and for all that concern about his weight and its effects on his future contract, he’s thrown over 180 innings in every year of his career. Look, I don’t even mind if we don’t get these guys, sometimes they will want to choose a better situation, will want to be closer to home, or will just get a better offer, period. But to flat-out ignore them on the market would be a huge mistake. The Mets need new difference makers. Coming back from this offseason without at least two of these guys would make it a very disappointing one to me, considering our payroll flexibility. 2) If it gets to them, don’t be afraid to wait it out with the second-tier guys. Last offseason the Mariners handed Carlos Silva a four-year, $48 million contract, while after waiting until almost spring training, Kyle Lohse settled for one year and $5 million, despite the two being very similar pitchers over their careers. This is something that I hope Omar learned from last year’s Luis Castillo debacle—David Eckstein, who the Mets’ brass had dinner with, originally was looking for four years, $36 milion; later, he would settle for one year, $4.5 million. There is absolutely no need to rush with players such as Raul Ibanez, Pat Burrell, Derek Lowe, Ollie Perez, Ben Sheets, and Jon Garland. If you can’t get a premium guy, wait until you can get a solid guy for a price that isn’t premium. This isn’t about screwing over players, so you don’t have to be worried that it will hurt future relations; it’s simply about getting a fair price. If all the best corner outfield options are gone, there is no reason to immediately knock on Raul Ibanez’s door and offer him four years and $32 million. Instead, act interested, but don’t rush into things. If it works in dating, it should work on the free agent market. Don’t be the team that ends up with buyer’s remorse again. In fact, don’t offer a contract over three years to anyone who isn’t a difference-maker, period. 3) Get creative to address places you can’t improve on the free agent market. This is one of the things that I think Omar does very well. The trades for John Maine and Oliver Perez were both winners, and even the Ambiorix Burgos-Brian Bannister swap doesn’t look quite as bad as it otherwise could right now. Now if we apply this maxim to second base and catcher, the two places that don’t have any tremendously appealing options in free agency, you might find a bunch of guys that I would consider shopping my non-Martinez/Wilmer Flores prospects for. There are some obvious targets like Kelly Shoppach and Kelly Johnson that make sense, but even barring the obvious ones the Mets should be very proactive about looking to fill their needs through trades. I covered some of the second basemen already, but some of the catchers the Mets could look at would include one of Arizona’s Miguel Montero (or Chris Snyder if Arizona would rather deal him), Tampa’s John Jaso, and one of the Rangers’ awesome collection of Gemaxtayod Saltalaigardirez. To a lesser extent, perhaps even Ramon Hernandez or Javier Valentin could be considered an upgrade over Brian Schneider. 4) Micromanage the bench. This is the one thing that I think Omar usually doesn’t pay attention, and I wish he’d remedy that. The Mets have the resources that enable them to put a few million on the bench without it hurting too much, and year after year they neglect that advantage. Josh Phelps has already slipped out under the Mets noses again even though he’s a perfect fit for resting Delgado. Between Ramon Castro, Fernando Tatis, and Endy Chavez, the Mets have three solid pieces to a good bench. I would like to see a left-hander with a little pop and a glove man for the infield. There are plenty of suitable names out there, but a few I like are Tony Clark, Dan Johnson, Tony Graffanino, Russ Branyan, and Alex Cora. It’s not so much about the players they sign as it is the effort to remake the bench though; the days of Julio Franco and Marlon Anderson and carrying three catchers because no one else in the organization is worth a spot need to end now. Rivers can't help you play better than Tiny Iota. That guy was great. Comments and criticisms can be sent to rivers.mccown@gmail.com. 11 Responses to “The Offseason Manifesto”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Good article Chris. Two things:
1. Marlon Anderson is already under contract. I know, I know…WHY??
2. You didn´t include Derek Lowe as one of the premier guys, implying that his original demands might come back to earth. Forget it. He and Burnett are the consolation prizes to the teams who don´t get CC. Plus, he won´t be demanding a 5-6 year deal. He´s what the Mets need: a durable, consistent, innings eater for the 3rd or 4th slot. Even given his age, I´d rather have him than Ollie P. Outside of the closer, he´s reportedly the team´s highest priority.
Lennon in Newsday 11/17/08:
I would hate to see them use assets in a trade for a closer when there are so many available on the open market.
I guess the key question here is how much payroll flexibility the front office has. If the Wilpons are willing to spend $50 million this offseason on free agents, then we can probably afford to bid for guys like Manny or Sabathia and still take care of our other needs. On the other hand, if the front office has around $30 million to spend (which seems the general consensus) this offseason, then signing a Manny or Sabathia leaves us with very little money to sign a closer & revamp our bullpen.
Whatever the merits of signing Teixeria & trading Delgado, I just don’t see that happening. And first base is the least of our problems.
I really like your points #2-4.
First base is the least of our problems not but we don’t have a long-term solution after this season. And next year’s first base market is pretty sorry.
I would disagree on a few different points:
1. I really don’t have any interest in CC. Sure, I would love to have Santana-CC at the top of my rotation for the next 3-5 years, but I don’t want to have the top 2 highest contracts ever for pitchers in 6 year deal. We already picked the better horse between the two, let the Yankees spend more for CC and make it even more obvious that Omar beat them last year with his deal.
I agree we need to stay involved (which I think is something Omar has shown he does do in trade negotiations but maybe not as much in FA deals), but at the same time I see about 0% chance of bringing in CC and other than the call to show interest and get some general ballpark numbers I wouldn’t put the effort into it. No way I sign CC for more money than we gave Santana.
2. To me the top priority is Bullpen, Bullpen, followed by Bullpen, and then the starting rotation. While I would love to get upgrades at 2nd and Catcher, I think getting one at catcher is impractical with Castillo there and an upgrade at catcher is not really a priority. Give me a top of the line closer and a couple guys to stabilize our pen, and I can live with our infield staying as is.
3. I think Lowe/Burnett/Perez will be in a separate tier than the guys you mentioned and will sign earlier. I would love to see the Mets pounce on Lowe while the bigger money teams are focusing elsewhere although I doubt that will happen. I think getting a quality reliable arm in our rotation will be a priority and I don’t think Omar should try to play out the string to the end of the off season as you suggest for that position. The drop off from those three guys to the rest is too steep.
I definitely agree about going after Manny (even though I kind of prefer we don’t get him on our team) and the bench needing to be a bigger priority than it has been in the past.
McCown is usually more creative than this. Rather conventional stuff, if you ask me.
Burnett is probably the best free agent value if the Yankees want CC. It’s one thing to overpay for a guy who’s in shape and not much of an injury risk. It’s quite another with Sabbatia.
Go strong after Burnett Omar!
MightyJoe,
Surely you’re not referring to Burnett when you say “a guy who’s in shape and not much of an injury risk”. In my judgment, Burnett is the definition of a guy with “injury risk.”
He had Tommy John Surgery in 2003, injured his elbow again in 2004 (albeit less seriously), had more elbow problems in 2006, and was again on the DL in 2007.
Burnett has made atleast 30 starts in a season just twice in his 7 or 8 year career (granted he did make 29 one year). Contrast this with Sabathia, who has made 30+ starts in 7 of his 8 big league seasons.
I’m not saying Burnett isn’t an injury risk. I’m saying his price tag will factor his risk more rationally than CCs, if the Yankees want to blow away the field, thus making Burnett the better buy for the risk.
I think that the biggest long-term mistake is not going after Tex. He’s going to knock in 100 RBIs and play great defense for the next 5-7 years.