Basic Stats 

After taking a look last week at one member of our bullpen in Aaron Heilman, this week we will turn our attention to another bullpen member, Scott Schoeneweis.

Scott finished the season with a 3.34 ERA, however reliever ERA is generally not indicative of how productive that pitcher has been for the season.  His ERA was helped mostly because of his left on base percentage of 81.7% and considered that his career LOB % is 68.1% I think it’s safe to say that Show was a bit lucky in this regard this season and will almost certainly regress next year to around his career average.

Furthermore, Show’s peripheral stats are not pretty.  His K rate last year was just 5.40 and his BB rate was 3.65 per 9 innings, causing his FIP to be 4.97.  Typically FIP predicts future ERA better than current year ERA so again we can expect Show’s ERA to rise next season. 

As everyone already knows, Schoeneweis is absolutely fantastic against left-handed batters and last year was no different.  Show held lefties to an OPS against of .520.  His problem is that he could not get right-handed batters out at all.  Righties OPS against Show was .955, a difference of .435 between the two sides of batters.  So far we have looked at two bullpen members and have seen major splits between the two sides.  While I think Heilman has the ability to improve against lefties if he regains confidence in his changeup, I do not believe Show will ever improve against righties.  Later on in the article, we will look into why Show’s splits are so large.

Another thing to point out, like Heilman, Show had issues in high leverage situations.  Opponents had an OPS of .893 in high leverage situations (compared to .493 OPS in mid leverage situations).  His inability to perform in high-leverage situations coupled with his major struggles against righties makes it extremely hard for Show to be a productive part of this bullpen.  It’s ok to have specialists, but you have got to be somewhat decent against the other side as well.  Let’s take a look at Show’s pitch f/x data.

 Pitch F/X Data

1) What Does He Throw 

Using data from MLB Gameday application, we can look further in detail to what Scott Schoeneweis threw in 2008.  Scott threw 900 pitches during the 2008 season, of these gameday has tracked 847 of those pitches.

Scott throws his fastball nearly 80% of the time.  This is the 4^th most among NL relievers.  This is a major problem IMO.  It’s one thing to throw it around 80% if you’re Mike Pelfrey who has above average and two different fastballs to give the hitters a somewhat different look.  However, Show throws his fastball a few ticks below average.  Although his groundball percentage has dipped this season, he is still considered a groundball pitcher and does get a decent amount of sink on the fastball.  I could not find a scouting report on what he throws so given the natural sink I labeled it a 2-seamer.

Scott’s second pitch (and last one) is his slider.  He does get above average movement both horizontally and vertically on this pitch and he was fairly successful when this pitch was put into play as we will see later.

And here is where we run into a big problem with Scott.  He does not throw a changeup at all.  Fangraphs has him throwing one 0.5% last year which would equal 4 or 5 pitches so I think it’s safe to say he didn’t throw one at all last year. As we have seen from previous articles, guys with good changeups (Johan) have less extreme splits then guys that throw a low percentage of them (Pelfrey).  I have to imagine the fact that Scott does not have a changeup plays a huge role in the splits.  Now the changeup is a tough pitch to learn and have good command of.  Maybe throwing a changeup will help Scott, however if he can’t locate or command it, it might be useless anyways.  Another option maybe would be some kind of cutter that breaks into the right handed batter instead of away like his normal movement on his fastball.  Whatever the case may be, Scott just finished his 10^th season in the big leagues and it’s very doubtful that things will suddenly change.

 2) When Does He Throw It? 

Next lets breakdown Scott’s pitches between Lefty vs Righty  

Scott throws his fastball a bit more often against the lefties then righties.  He tries to use his slider a bit more against the right handed batter.  This is quite different then what we usually see.  Typically pitchers will throw mostly sliders to same handed batters and mostly changeups to opposite handed batters.  Since the lack of a changeup, show uses sliders to both sides.

 3) What Happens When He Throws It? 

Here is a breakdown on what happens when Scott throws each type of pitch.  I will begin by giving total data and then I’ll breakdown the data between lefties and righties.

 Total 

Scott did well when opponents put his slider into play (9 for 36 or .250), however when the fastball was put into play opponents hit him pretty decently (.312).  A little note about the numbers.  These numbers only factor in balls put in play since at the moment I am unable to get strikeout numbers.  It’s very possible that opponents hit .312 against his fastball when put into play; however he may have also used the fastball to get multiple strikeouts.  Let’s break it down lefty/righty.

  Lefties 

 Righties 

As you can see, the slider was actually very effective from both sides.  Batters tended to do the most damage against the fastball not surprisingly.  Schoeneweis cannot keep throwing a below average fastball nearly 80% of the time and not expect to get hurt from it.

 What’s In Store for 2009 

Normally in the section I try to remain positive and show any good thing I can possibly think of however with Scott Schoeneweis it’s quite difficult.  His pitch selection is very questionable and righties will continue to hammer him. A couple years ago I read a baseball book which had a chapter in it about Game Theory.  Basically, it’s never a good thing to be predictable.  You need to mix it up a bit.  That’s why when teams employ the shift on Delgado, I want him to drop bunts down the third base line occasionally.  Show must mix it up. He simply does not have a good enough fastball to get by on that alone.  It’s a shame because his numbers against lefties are so good but we cannot have a guy in our pen that lets the opposing teams’ opposite handed hitters hit .955 (same with Heilman with the other side).

People scream he’s a LOOGY and to only use him in lefty situations, however it’s extremely hard.  What happens if the opposing team has L-R-L-R up?  Do you let him pitch to the righty so that you have him against the lefty?  If so, chances are the righty is going to hit him and hit him hard.  That’s why it’s so important for even your specialists to be decent against the other side.  I’d honestly get rid of him.  Feliciano can be the LOOGY.  Although he is not as effective as Show is against lefties, he is also not as bad as Show against righties.  Next week, I’ll take a look at Feliciano.