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October 24, 2008

A Lesson in Drafting: Using the Tampa Bay Blueprint

by: Mike Newman on Oct 24, 2008 1:14 AM | Filed under: Articles

Tampa Bay had been bad for a really, really long time. With high draft picks year in and year out, it would be easy to look at the Rays’ riches and dismiss their ability to find and draft quality talent. Over the past decade, the Rays have been a model franchise in terms of player identification and development. Through examining their strategy in terms of both their hits and misses, the Rays have consistently drafted athletic, high ceiling players and have shown a propensity for not shying away from hard to sign talent. The Mets brass would be wise to take notes.

(#) Designates Round Drafted
DNS - Did Not Sign

1999:

Successful Big Leaguers: Josh Hamilton (1), Carl Crawford (2)

four of the Rays top five picks are currently in the bigs with a total of eight reaching baseball’s highest level. Many of us know the Josh Hamilton saga at this point, but his being the best athlete in the draft is also worth mentioning. Crawford was a 3-sport star in high school and left a basketball scholarship from UCLA on the table. An example of the Rays not blinking at drafting a player with signability issues.

2000:

Successful Big Leaguers: Rocco Baldelli (1), James Shields (16), Nick Blackburn (34-DNS), Luke Scott (45-DNS)

A total of ten players from the 2000 draft have played in the majors. While the top of the Rays draft was pretty weak, Shields in the 16th has to be one of the best picks in team history. Both Scott and Blackburn were community college picks who did not sign, but are another example of the Rays willingness to take chances long shots late.

2001:

Successful Big Leaguers: David Bush (4-DNS), Jonny Gomes (18)

While eleven players from this draft class made the show, only Bush who did not sign, and Gomes have made any impact making this the Rays worst draft class of the decade. Dewon Brazelton was their first round pick (3rd overall) and is the biggest draft flop in the history of the organization. For those of you wondering about Matt White, he was not an actual Rays pick. He was signed after a loophole made him a free agent.

2002:

Successful Big Leaguers: B.J. Upton (1), Elijah Dukes (3), Mike Pelfrey (15-DNS), Jacoby Ellsbury (23-DNS)

Upside, upside, upside! The Rays took high ceiling players with their first three picks and their first four picks have all clocked big league time. Had they signed Pelfrey and Ellsbury, this draft crop would arguably be a historically great draft class. Overall, seven draft picks have dawned major league uniforms from this particular class. An interesting side note is the Rays drafting of Matt Harrington who has story worth writing a book about.

2003:

Successful Big Leaguers: Delmon Young (1), Andrew Miller (3-DNS)

Prospects: Billy Buckner (9-DNS), John Jaso (12), Adam Ottavino (30-DNS), Kris Medlen (37-DNS)

2003 is the point where prospects and big leaguers begin to converge in the system. With the draft being relatively recent, a few players who were drafted as teenagers are just about ready to break through. The Rays also took a few chances in this draft as Adam Ottavino (30th Round) was later drafted in the first round by the St. Louis Cardinals and Andrew Miller was the top talent in the draft three years later. Young was dealt for Matt Garza, the MVP of the ALCS.

2004:

Successful Big Leaguers: Andy Sonnanstine (13th)

Prospects: Jeff Niemann (1st), Reid Brignac (2), Wade Davis (3), Jake McGee (4), Ryan Royster (6), Cale Iorg (16-DNS), Daniel McCutchen (29-DNS)

Another nominee for the franchises best overall draft class, the Rays first four picks have all spent time in the Baseball America Top 100. Only Sonnanstine has registered significant major league time by winning 13 games, but Brignac, Davis and McGee all project as solid-to-above-average big leaguers with Niemann serving as a dark horse for the closer role. Iorg is currently the second-rated prospect in the Tigers organization and McCutchen was dealt to the Pirates at the deadline.

2005:

Prospects: Chris Mason (2), Bryan Morris (3-DNS), Jeremy Hellickson (4), Tommy Hunter (18-DNS), Ike Davis (19-DNS), Wade Miley (20-DNS), Clayton Mortensen (25-DNS),

A truly phenomenal draft on a number of fronts. The first and most obvious being the talent they did not sign. Morris and Davis were later drafted in the first round. Miley and Mortensen were supplemental 1st round picks. How does a team identify five future first round talents in addition to their own high round picks? I’ve personally never seen anything like it. And although they did not sign many of these guys, their ability to identify talent is unmatched.

2006:

Successful Big Leaguers: Evan Longoria (1)

Prospects: Alexander Cobb (4), Desmond Jennings (10), Heath Rollins (11)

Obviously Longoria is a special talent and his success props up a relatively weak draft class. Cobb was one of the best pitchers in the Sally League in 2008. Jennings is a dynamic talent, but injuries have hurt his prospects. Rollins is a big arm and should open 2009 in the Montgomery (Double-A) rotation.

2007:

Prospects: David Price (1), Nick Barnese (3), Matt Moore (9)

The Rays’ 2007 draft sports potentially three elite arms. Price is a phenom who will anchor the Rays’ rotation for years to come. Barnese and Moore are still young, but are putting up impressive numbers in the minor leagues and could see their prospect rankings rise quickly.

2008:

Prospects: Tim Beckham (1), Kyle Lobstein (2), Jacob Jefferies (3), TBD

Obviously the current Rays draft class lacks the data to determine whether it has been successful. However, they did take the best all around player in the 2008 class where he should have been drafted and signed Lobstein who was considered a tough sign.

What can we learn from these drafts?

1. Assuming the Rays draft great talent simply because of high picks is not a fair assessment. Unlike many teams, the Rays have not had supplemental picks because they have really had no players of note become free agents. It’s the age old quality versus quantity argument. Is it better to have the 2nd overall pick, or picks 18, 22, and 33 like the Mets had in 2008?

2. The Rays focus on drafting athletes early and often. Five-tool players and exceptional athleticism are at a premium and the Rays are not afraid to take chances on them.

3. An organization can never have enough arms. Draft them early and often! When two of your five starters were drafted in the 13th and 16th rounds respectively, you are definitely onto something. The Rays organization is deeper than any other in terms of pitching and that’s without the arms they were not able to ink.

4. Draft starting pitchers! Starters can always be turned into relievers. It’s much harder to turn relievers into starters.

5. The Rays take chances, and are not afraid to miss. With six unsigned players becoming big league regulars and another half dozen or so drafted by other teams in the first round, the Rays win some and lose some. However, their losses do not hurt quite as much because of their willingness to keep drafting aggressively.

This philosophy has been the polar opposite of what the Mets have tried to do. Sure the Mets haven’t drafted as high, but they have nonetheless passed on high-ceiling talent to draft middle relievers and college hitters while avoiding drafting players who require over slot compensation. Common sense would dictate the Rays and Mets philosophies would be reversed with the Mets taking big chances on over slot talents with the Rays playing it more close to the vest. Maybe the Mets should take some of the $75 million earmarked for K-Rod and buy the Rays’ entire scouting department.

Read more articles by Mike Newman at Baseball Handyman. Mike grew up a Mets fan in the days of Straw and Doctor K and is excited to be the newest contributor to Metsgeek! Hit me up at BaseballHandyman@comcast.net with any comments or article ideas.

10 Responses to “A Lesson in Drafting: Using the Tampa Bay Blueprint”

Comment posted by Lunkwill Fook on October 24, 2008 at 11:10 am (#883495)
I dunno. I really can’t buy this. Look at all the DNS? Why do you think organizations don’t typically do this until later rounds. Because they do their homework. Yes, blow a late round pick on them but the Rays blew FOURTH rounds picks on marginal players like David Bush that had signability issues. That’s HORRIBLE.

Add to the fact there are only about 4 non first rounders in that entire history that the Rays signed and have actually had major league careers….

I just don’t buy it.

Comment posted by Chris McCown on October 24, 2008 at 2:26 pm (#883767)
If you take out the guys that were drafted with a top 3 pick (Upton, Longoria, Hamilton, Price, Beckham), is this really all that impressive of a list?

I mean, the Mets got Wright with a supplemental rounder, I think he’d be the best pick on either team after the top 3. I guess I just don’t think this is that big of a deal.
Comment posted by MightyJoeOrsulak on October 24, 2008 at 3:26 pm (#883938)
Even if it’s not that big a deal, the philosophy of the early Minaya reign to go for college relievers in the early rounds remains incomprehensibly stupid. Kunz is the best you can do in the supplamental first round? Really??

Though it’s beginning to look a lot like our boys are really milking the later rounds, so…who knows?
Comment posted by C needs a LOWenbrau on October 24, 2008 at 3:29 pm (#883946)
Maybe we can trade F(M)art to the Nat’s for some real talent. After all our OF prospects like Alex Escobar, ITAM eventually ended up there.

Comment posted by Mike Newman on October 24, 2008 at 4:21 pm (#884045)
Lunkwill,

Here are the number of Mets draft picks who have played in the bigs by year since 1999:

1999 - 5
2000 - 4
2001 - 6
2002 - 2
2003 - 3
2004 - 2
2005 - 3
2006 - 2
2007 - 1
2008 - TBD

Of these 28 players, only Mike Jacobs, Matt Lindstrom and Daniel Murphy have been decent as players drafted after round 10.

In a bad year, the Rays draft 7 guys who play in the bigs and two members of the current rotation were drafted after round 10 in Shields and Sonnanstine, with Gomes as a 18th rounder who is similar to Jacobs. This isn’t even mentioning so-so major leaguers Matt Diaz, Edgar Gonzalez, Chad Gaudin, and Joey Gaithright.

As for Bush, he was a 2nd rounder after the Rays didn’t sign him in the 4th round. He was considered a pretty elite college pitcher when he was drafted and has had a decent major league career. Remember, Heilman was a 1st rounder.
Comment posted by Hulk Hundley on October 24, 2008 at 6:58 pm (#884133)
I don’t buy this either, especially since the drafts took place over two management regimes and for a smaller market team without the financial power of a team like the Mets. There are better organizational models for the Mets to follow when it comes to the draft.

I think a best example for the Mets to follow draft-wise is Theo Epstein’s Red Sox developmental system since he took over in ‘03. They’ve lost picks for free agent compensation and have generally drafted later then the Mets over the past 5 years yet have developed one of the best farm systems in baseball.

Draftees with big league experience/top prospects:

2003 - 1 David Murphy, 1s Matt Murton, 2 Abe Alvarez, 4 Jonathan Papelbon

2004 - 2 Dustin Pedroia, 6 Cla Meredith

2005 - 1 Jacoby Ellsbury, 1 Craig Hansen, 1s Clay Buchholz, 1s Jed Lowrie, 1s Michael Bowden, 9 Mark Wagner, 31 Luis Exposito, 39 Bubba Bell

2006 - 1 Daniel Bard, 1s Kris Johnson, 2 Justin Masterson, 3 Aaron Bates, 9 Ryan Kalish, 16 Ty Weeden, 17 Josh Reddick, 18 Lars Anderson

2007 - 1s Nick Hagadone, 5 Will Middlebrooks, 6 Anthony Rizzo

2008 - 1 Casey Kelly, 4 Pete Hissey, 5 Ryan Westmoreland

This list doesn’t even include the later picks they tried to sign but couldn’t like Pedro Alvarez and Alex Meyer

The thing that stands out is Epstein and the Red Sox aren’t afraid of signability. They pick up major talent in later rounds with players who were thought to be unsignable in Anderson, Reddick, Westmoreland, Hissey and some others whose 1st round talent didn’t pan out like Mike Rozier. These players were thought to be unsignable but the Red Sox used their financial muscle to sign the talent they wanted.

This draft strategy has paid off, the Red Sox have been able to turn over their roster from within with Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Papelbon, ect. (not counting Lester, Delcarmen and Youkilis since they were drafted in the Duquette era), yet still win a World Series last year and make it to game seven of the ALCS without Manny this year.

Comment posted by Mike Newman on October 24, 2008 at 8:53 pm (#884135)
Hulk,

This seems like an apples & oranges argument. the Rays have had exactly and 6 1st and 2nd round picks since 2003. The Red Sox have had 15 first round picks alone including 9 between 2005-2006 Plus, the Red Sox have had a HUGE international presence which the Rays have not had. Beyond that, the Red Sox and Rays have drafted similarly with the Rays simply missing out on more guys. The Mets, with their significantly deeper pockets would likely be able to sign more players. The Red Sox’ 2005 draft class could be of the historic variety with all five 1st rounders panning out, but if an organization can’t build on 15 first round picks, then they are just idiots.

Besides, isn’t this Raysgeek and not Red Sox Geek?
Comment posted by Hulk Hundley on October 24, 2008 at 9:31 pm (#884137)
Mike,

That was part of my point, that the situation with the Rays and Mets is apples and oranges. The Mets should look at a large market team who has had success through the draft rather then a small market team.

True, the Rays have had fewer firsts then the Sox, but they’ve had significantly higher picks then the Red Sox in the first round. The Sox have not picked before 17 since Theo became GM, and that was in 2003. Since then they have not picked below 23. By that time the in the draft the “Can’t miss prospects,” i.e. Longoria, Upton, ad Price are long gone. The mid-20’s upwards are where the Mets are going to generally pick, so they have to look more for a Jed Lowrie or a Jacoby Ellsbury because the Evan Longoria’s of the world aren’t be around.

Especially with the depleted state of the Mets farm system right now, they need bodies and that’s what the Theo Epstein/David Chadd (Red Sox Director of Scouting)/Larry Lucchino group did with a depleted Sox system early on.

re: international presence, I would argue that when it comes to signing International prospects the Mets and Yankees have a larger presence then the Sox… Look at the top 20-40 prospects in their system (via soxprospects.com), 6 out of the top 20 are internationals and 10 out of the top 40 are internationals. Of players they’ve graduated from their system brought in by Theo no international signings are on the Sox and one, Andy Marte, has played big league ball elsewhere. Engel Beltre is a big time prospect in the Rangers system after the Gagne trade, but is still years away from the bigs. Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez were pre-Theo by 2-3 years. Adding to this argument is one of the major Red Sox Dominican scouts got fired in the signing bonus scandal so their presence has diminished quite a bit in the Caribbean this past season.

And I really shouldn’t be arguing for the team that just lost to the Rays, but Red Sox system seems more applicable to how the Mets should run their farm system then what the Rays have done.

Comment posted by Mike Newman on October 25, 2008 at 9:44 am (#884143)
Hulk, check out this quote from one of my other articles:

the Mets need to spend money responsibly and in a way that helps bridge the current Mets team with the future of the franchise. Just look across town for an example of what happens when a franchise throws unlimited amounts of money at a roster. Follow the Red Sox blueprint of responsible spending and player development and the Mets will be the team to beat in the east for years to come.

The Red Sox HAVE done a great job developing players the past few years. 15 first round picks is 15 first round picks though. Yes, the Rays have had very high first round picks, but I would question whether drafting a player 2nd overall, or having the 23rd, 26th, 42nd, 45th, and 47th picks would be more valuable. Especially in a draft environment where a pitcher like Porcello can slip into the late 1st round or Alex Meyer can drop to the 20th round. The Rays can’t afford to miss. The Red Sox have been able to throw a bunch of names against a wall and see what sticks with their good fortune. They have drafted well and they have been smart not to deal from their newfound draft depth.

Comment posted by Chris McCown on October 25, 2008 at 2:00 pm (#884156)
The Red Sox HAVE done a great job developing players the past few years. 15 first round picks is 15 first round picks though. Yes, the Rays have had very high first round picks, but I would question whether drafting a player 2nd overall, or having the 23rd, 26th, 42nd, 45th, and 47th picks would be more valuable. Especially in a draft environment where a pitcher like Porcello can slip into the late 1st round or Alex Meyer can drop to the 20th round. The Rays can’t afford to miss. The Red Sox have been able to throw a bunch of names against a wall and see what sticks with their good fortune. They have drafted well and they have been smart not to deal from their newfound draft depth.

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showtopic=19369
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showtopic=19514

The first few picks are almost always going to deliver you a capable player, if not a super star. Specifically, the #1 pick is the most valuable, but obviously 2 and 3 have been way better over time than the rest of the class as well. This is pretty time-tested. Certainly they are much more valuable than the other picks.

If you have 5 in the top 50, that is certainly valuable and you are certainly likely to get a fairly great prospect, but the top 3 guys are usually can’t miss picks. The Rays can’t afford to miss, but they also haven’t been put in a position where the choices you brought up here were very difficult. They had 6 Top 3 picks, 4 times the #1 overall, and picked the best player available in each of those drafts (considering that the Rockies/Royals and Pirates foolishly drafted Bullington, Hochevar, and Greg Reynolds ahead of Upton and Longoria) Do the Rays deserve credit for not picking the duds? Absolutely. But it’s not rocket science when you’re picking the cream of the crop.