As I mentioned the other day, we’ll be writing a few Rays-themed articles this week as a change of pace. Of course, it won’t be a big change of pace as far as this column is concerned, because the Rays will be facing the Philadelphia Phillies, a team whose pitchers Mets fans should know by heart. The Phillies have four things going for them. First, Cole Hamels, who might be the best pitcher either team will throw. Second, they have really had an outstanding bullpen, the best in the National League this season. Third, they really help themselves out on the bases—as a team they stole 136 of them and were caught only 25 times. And finally, they have some guys who can knock the ball out of the park. Their lineup has been helped by their home park a bit, but the power is still very real.

Postseason rotations are prone to fluctuation for a variety of fairly obvious reasons, but the Phillies are planning to throw Cole Hamels (14-10, 3.09), Brett Myers (10-13, 4.55), Jamie Moyer (16-7, 3.71), and Joe Blanton (9-12, 4.69). The Rays are answering with Scott Kazmir (12-8, 3.49), James Shields (14-8, 3.56), Matt Garza (11-9, 3.70), and Andy Sonnanstine (13-9, 4.38).

Game 1: Cole Hamels, LHP

What’s the Story? As I mentioned above, Cole Hamels just might be the best pitcher on either staff. He was certainly one of the best pitchers in the National League this season despite accumulating just 14 wins. His ERA ranked fifth, his WHIP first, his strikeout rate third, and he was second in innings pitched. He got overshadowed a bit by some outstanding pitchers, but, still just 24, he certainly looks like he’s going to continue to be a Cy Young candidate for years to come, provided his murky injury history doesn’t come back to haunt him—certainly a risk, considering the innings count. Hamels’s repertoire is outstanding: a low-90s fastball, an incredible changeup with downward movement he’ll throw in the high-70s-to-low-80s, and a nice hard curve.

This Postseason: Hamels was fantastic in the NLDS, holding a lefty-mashing offense to no runs and two hits over eight innings while walking one and striking out nine. He was very good again in Game 1 of the NLCS, allowing two runs on six hits and two walks while striking out eight. He finished the Dodgers off in Game 5, as he allowed five hits and three walks, but the only run came on sixth-inning solo homerun by Manny Ramirez. Hamels struck out five batters over seven innings of work.

What to Expect: What always impresses me about Cole Hamels is his confidence. He trusts his stuff, and he trusts himself to put pitches where they need to be. It ultimately helps in keeping him unpredictable despite a limited bag of tricks—you know the fastball-changeup combination is going to be the backbone of his attack, but he still manages to keep hitters guessing, because he’ll throw that change on any count. Hamels will mix in his curve here and there—slightly more often to lefties than righties—but he’s a rare southpaw who’s more effective against righties than lefties. Hitters’ best bet is to be patient and wait for mistakes up in the zone; Hamels will occasionally give hitters something to drive.

Game 2: Brett Myers, RHP

What’s the Story? 2008 was a story of two seasons for Brett Myers. After his June 27th start, Myers was 3-9 with a 5.84 ERA. In 101.2 innings, he had struck out 88—an acceptable number, but below his established level—but had walked 44 batters and given up an astounding 29 homeruns. The Phillies, exasperated, sent him to the minors to figure things out. He returned after four minor-league starts and was arguably the team’s best pitcher from that point forward. He went 7-4 with a 3.06 ERA over his last 13 starts, drastically improving his homerun and walk rates despite bombing in his final two starts of the regular season. Myers has a deep armament of pitches. His fastball arrives in the low-90s, and he also throws a great hard curveball, a good changeup, and an average slider.

This Postseason: Myers has made two starts this postseason, one in the NLDS, the other in the NLCS. The start against the Brewers was fine, as he allowed two runs on two hits and three walks over seven innings while striking out four. The second start was more problematic. He struggled with his command, walking four over five innings while allowing five runs on six hits, including a three-run homerun by Manny.

What to Expect: I think the biggest reason for Myers’ resurgence upon his return from the minors was more of a commitment to his fastball. Unlike Cole Hamels, for example, Myers had a tendency early in the season to shy away from the heater a little too much in an effort to mix up his pitches. While he does possess four average or better offerings, I’d almost prefer he ditch the slider and focus more on his fastball-curve combination, especially to righties. The fastball has enough velocity and movement to be effective, and it’s an easier pitch to spot. By over-utilizing his offspeed stuff, he tends to fall behind, forcing him to make hitters’ pitches. As a side note, Myers has been much, much better in Philadelphia than on the road this season, odd considering the bandbox he calls home.

Game 3: Jamie Moyer, LHP

What’s the Story? Every time I’m ready to write Jamie Moyer off, he puts together another impressive campaign. Father Time led the team in wins, which I doubt many saw coming after a 2007 where he won 14 but posted an ERA 8% below the league average. At 45 years old, it seemed reasonable that Moyer was in the decline phase of his career. Well, guess who was wrong? I have to admit, Moyer is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball—not because he’s fun or impressive to watch, but because he’s so unique. I liked Tom Glavine—yes, despite everything—for the exact same reason; both men got so much out of so little. Moyer has no velocity to speak of: his fastball will occasionally dip below 80. His cutter and curve are really just average pitches at best. And his best pitch, the changeup, isn’t that much slower than his heater and lacks movement on most days.

This Postseason: Moyer has not enjoyed a pretty post-season thus far. In the first outing, he was too inefficient, throwing 90 pitches to get through just four innings, as he allowed two runs on four hits and three walks while striking out three. His NLCS start was likely the worst of any pitcher this postseason. Moyer failed to get out of the second inning and allowed six runs on four singles, a double, and a homerun by Rafael Furcal.

What to Expect: Moyer’s going to stick to fastballs, cutters, and changeups. He will mix in a couple curves to lefties, but otherwise don’t expect very many. He won’t strike anybody out, but he won’t walk many either, and he did a good job of avoiding the homerun in 2008. Instead, Moyer’s going to focus on inducing weak contact from hitters via cutters to the corners and changeups to the outside part of the plate. He mostly works by playing against hitters’ expectations, throwing any pitch to almost any spot. Still, as his first two outings has shown, Moyer’s very hittable, but the key is not to be too aggressive, something Moyer feeds upon.

Game 4: Joe Blanton, RHP

What’s the Story? Needing another arm in the starting rotation, the Phillies acquired Blanton from the Athletics in July for three prospects. Blanton isn’t a dominating pitcher, but he did exactly what the Phillies needed him to do—help them stay in games. I’d wager they’re doubly thankful they made the move right now; if not for their acquisition of Blanton, the Phils might be starting Kyle Kendrick, the answer to the riddle “What happens to a sinkerballers who can’t get groundballs?” Blanton, throwing a fastball in the 88-91 mile-per-hour range, a nice 12-to-6 curve, a decent changeup, and an average slider, is a finesse guy who relies on pitching to contact.

This Postseason: Blanton’s NLDS start was excellent; he went six innings, didn’t walk a soul and even struck out seven. He gave up one run on five hits. He struggled a tad in his start against the Dodgers in the NLCS.

What to Expect: Blanton really hasn’t had a very good season, and the biggest reason for that is his control. He’s walked 3.01 batters per nine innings, and while that isn’t bad, a pitcher like Blanton has a smaller margin for error than a guy who can consistently get swings-and-misses. In 2007, his walk rate was almost half that; it helped him limit his pitch count and keep runners off base, resulting in a 14-10 record and a 3.95 ERA. Blanton’s at his best when he hits his corners, keeps his fastball down, and mixes up his pitches. He’ll throw the slow curve to hitters on both sides of the plate, but lefties will see barely any sliders, while righties won’t see many changeups.

Overall

I’m picking the Rays in six. Feel free to make your predictions in the comments below.