The Mets are in a highly peculiar situation.  They have numerous monstrously great players (Wright, Reyes, Beltran, and Santana are all amongst the very best at what they do in the game) and equally monstrous liabilities (nothing at left field or 2nd base, an atrocious bullpen, and potential liabilities at catcher, right field, and the rotation) with very little in between.  (Church is such a question mark that I advocate that his name be changed to Church? ala FMart!.)

This is a recipe for a very risky off-season.  Frankly, there are not enough free agents to fill the Mets’ holes, which is why some people are making ludicrous proposals that include signing 5 type A free agents and raising the payroll to 250 million dollars.

Because the Mets have so many holes, they will have be very shrewd in their use of the free agent market, or risk spending too much for too little.  Here are some free agent rules that would apply to the Mets:

1.) If your going to break the bank on a free agent, break the bank on a free agent.

This is a concept that derives from replacement player economics.  The more average a free agent is, the more overpaid he is going to be compared to a replacement alternative.  Therefore, if you have the resources and the will to grab a free agent, grab a Santana or a Sabbathia.  If you don’t, play moneyball.  Tighten up the wallet and look for underrated players or useful but nondescript spare parts.  (Adam Dunn won’t come cheap, but he’s so underrated that he might fall into this category. )  Under no circumstances sign a Carlos Silva.  (Actually in a rational market–that is, a market without Bill Bavasi to single-handedly irrationalize it–Carlos Silva might have been a decent cost-control move, as he’s decidedly below average and should not have commanded nearly as much as he finally got.)

2.) Do not sign a free agent if you have a credible in-house alternative.

This is why I am strongly against signing Orlando Hudson unless Murphy proves to be completely (and I mean completely)  inept at 2nd base in the AFL.  Murphy’s bat (and perhaps even his glove) is a more credible candidate for 2nd base than left field.  If you sign Hudson at 2nd thee is a good chance that you will have to spend more money in left field as well.  And if Murphy’s bat can’t play left field and O-Dawg gets hurt?  Say hello to Fernando Tatis and Argenis Reyes.

This is also why I support taking Delgado’s option.  We have Carp, Evans, and Pascucci to back him up at first base, and to inherit the position–even if Carp and Evans have to platoon) in 2010.  This is not to say that I would mind having Tex here.  It’s just that given his price and production compared to our in-house alternatives, he would be less valuable than another option.  Consider also that we have no in house alternatives at all for our other areas of need, except perhaps for 5th starter.

Speaking of which, I would like to see Niese as our 5th starter.  You can accept a learning experience from the 5th starter position, and the Mike Pelfrey experience should curtail calls for Niese’s head should he struggle in the beginning.

3.) Horde your top prospects

Unless some GM loses his mind and offers Jay Bruce and Joey Votto for Niese, hoard your prospects.  A team with this many holes and an already inflated payroll needs all the young cheap talent it can get.

4.) Sometimes, leave well enough alone.

This applies, in my opinion, to our Lastings Milledge situation.  Church is under our control for awhile and, being in his prime, is a good bet to outperform projections.  Schneider is only signed for one more year, and he’s not that much worse than the average catcher.  If you can upgrade in a trade, fine.  If you can get a backup to spell him against lefties (assuming you’re sick of watching Castro get hurt) fine by me.  (This isn’t really all that relevant, since no one’s really lining up for Rod Barajas, but still.)

5.) If you have more than one area of need, get the best player you can afford that addresses one of those areas first, and patch up the rest later.

This is to say, don’t go by how great the need is as much as by how great the player is.  The reason is that you will overpay for top free agents, and if you’re going to overpay, you might as well get the best.  We have 4 essential positions–relief ace, setup man, left field, and mid level starter–for which we do not have in-house options (with the possible exception of set-up man if any one of Kunz, Parnell, Muniz, Sanchez, or Heilman get their act together).  What to do will obviously depend on the prices of each option, but my default position is to spend on Sabbathia and patch the rest up with lesser lights.  If the Yanks offer an A-Rod style (i.e. completely outrageous) contract to Sabbathia, you tip your hat and look for the second best player available, and so on.  (This is why good organizations, rightly, don’t over-invest in bullpens.  They are, man-for-man, almost always less valuable than any good starting pitcher or position player.  However, when they all suck cumulatively, the results, as any Met fan knows, can be ugly.)

There is much more to say about this, but I’ll hold off for now with these basic principles.