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October 2, 2008

Musings from a Depressed Fan: 2008 Edition, Part II

Scribbled by: Dan Scotto @ 1:17 am | Filed under: Articles

Continuing from yesterday:

6. If I’m Minaya, I’m taking the picks and letting Oliver Perez walk.

This is the hardest decision that Omar Minaya has to make this offseason.

I think it is possible that Oliver Perez develops into a great pitcher over the next few seasons. But what is Oliver Perez, really?

- He is a lefty starter with great stuff.
- He is a dramatic flyball pitcher.
- He will strike out around a batter per nine, but he’s not approaching Lincecumian heights.
- He has average control, at best.

During Oliver Perez’s best stretch of 11 starts, he posted a 3.4 BB/9. The NL average is 3.3 BB/9. Even when Oliver Perez’s control is at its sharpest, he has average control. And the truth is, his control is simply unpredictable at this time.

So, what do you get? You do get some utterly amazing starts, particularly against lefty-heavy lineups. But it’s hard to be a truly dominant pitcher when you have below average to average control and you give up a bunch of flyballs. The number of home runs a pitcher surrenders are generally a function of the number of outfield flies they give up. The best flyball pitchers do two things: they strike out a lot of guys (depressing the number of balls in play), and they don’t walk very many. The home runs they do give up are solo shots, and Perez’s high walk rate certainly makes him more prone to the three-run homer. This propensity is one of the reasons why he struggles to rack up “quality starts” (only 50% this year).

Let’s demonstrate this with a chart. This is a filtered list of sorts; I took every pitcher who had a groundball rate below 40%, and I sorted them by “Pitching Runs Created.” I took the top 10 in that category, and I added Ollie’s numbers to the bottom. Essentially, we’re looking for the roots of success for flyball pitchers. These statistics are courtesy of the Hardball Times.

Last	First	Tm	*PRC	RA	FIP	BABIP	GB%	K/G	BB/G	*HR/F
Hamels	Cole	PHI	114	3.52	3.70	0.259	39.5%	8.3	2.2	11.20%
Santana	Ervin R	LAA	112	3.66	3.37	0.289	38.8%	9.2	2	11.30%
Matsuzaka	Daisuke	BOS	101	3.11	4.11	0.258	38.6%	8.3	5.1	7.50%
Nolasco	Ricky	FLA	96	3.73	3.76	0.271	38.8%	8.3	1.9	12.50%
Cain	Matt	SF	96	3.93	3.85	0.297	33.2%	7.7	3.8	8.20%
Meche	Gil	KC	94	4.19	3.68	0.303	39.2%	8	3.2	8.40%
Baker	Scott S	MIN	90	3.45	3.85	0.284	32.9%	7.7	2.3	10.40%
Lilly	Ted	CHN	88	4.22	4.45	0.270	33.6%	8.3	2.9	13.60%
Vazquez	Javier	CHA	85	4.88	3.81	0.316	38.2%	8.7	2.6	10.30%
Wellemeyer	Todd	STL	79	3.94	4.56	0.264	39.3%	6.4	3	12.70%
Perez	Oliver	NYN	73	4.64	4.69	0.271	32.0%	8.2	4.8	11.40%

Here’s how I read this:

- Home Runs/Flyball is, essentially, random. Cole Hamels, the best pitcher of the sample, fell right in the middle. Ollie did as well.
- The only pitcher on the list with a higher BB/G than Oliver Perez is Daisuke Matsuzaka. Daisuke’s season will be scrutinized for years in the annals of the weird; he is either an exceptionally unique pitcher, or he was very lucky this year.
- Most of these pitchers do a good job of keeping runners off base. Certainly, none are as offensive as Ollie, as far as the free pass goes.
- Even if you drop Oliver Perez’s walk rate down to a Matt Cain’s level, the overall line is still not that impressive.

It’s really quite hard to be a great pitcher in the Ollie sense. And Ollie, with Scott Boras as his agent, is going to demand great pitcher money. Ollie’s ascent to “Great Pitcher” status requires a significant upgrade in his control, and that’s not something I’m willing to bet eight figures on. Are you?

7. Let no one forget the heavy usage by Jerry Manuel of his starters if they come back less effective next year.

Jerry Manuel was undoubtedly caught between a rock and a hard place down the stretch.

The Rock: The Mets, like other baseball teams, had adopted prudent restrictions on pitch counts for their starting pitchers.

The Hard Place: The Mets, unlike other teams, had no confidence in their bullpen at all.

Manuel chose to veer hard for the Hard Place. As her said on August 26th:

“There’ll be some damage to some people. That’s the sacrifice. That’s the cost.”

The gamble failed. If Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey find their effectiveness diminished next year, or blow out their arms, the Mets will be in some trouble. As it is now, you hope the Mets’ medical staff is sharp.

8. There is nothing tangibly different about building a team in New York versus other cities.

As I sat in front of the TV, numb from the horror that was the end of that game, Matt Yallof starting expounding on the difficulty of building a team in New York. Finally able to feel pain, I started yelling at the TV. My rant went something like this:

“The only reason people think that there is something tangibly ‘different’ about building a team in New York is because the media portrays it as different. New York fans would wait if they saw the team building from within and improving. People love watching young players grow up.”

This was followed by a stream of profanities. I would like for people to join me in my crusade. Any time someone says there is something “different” about building a team in New York, please tell them otherwise. As Mets fans, we are accustomed to losing. We can certainly lose with young players.

9. Bring back Delgado at the $8 million discount, but please bring in someone who could spell him against lefties.

Delgado was remarkable after the All-Star Break, and my pessimism about his career looked awfully foolish during late August. He hit .303/.386/.606 from mid-July onward; from that Yankees doubleheader, he hit .308/.392/.626.

Still, in the aggregate, those lefty/right splits just don’t look good:

Split             AVE   OBA   SLG
vs. lefties      .267  .299  .490
vs. righties     .273  .378  .534

It remains possible that Delgado falls off a cliff next year. It’s not the most likely scenario, but it is always a possibility when discussing a late-30s player with old player skills. Josh Phelps remains my choice. He would be really cheap, and he hit .291/.373/.568 playing in a pitcher’s park in AAA-Memphis. He wouldn’t be great, but he would be a useful bench part and a potential spell for Delgado.

It doesn’t have to be Phelps, but there needs to be some insurance. I have been pushing this point for over a year now and will continue to do so until Minaya addresses it.

10. Is there a bold move to be made?

What constitutes a bold move?

- Trading for someone you never could have seen to be attainable (see: Mike Piazza, Johan Santana)
- Trading one of your core players in a move to retool

After two straight “September collapses” (as the media narrative will inevitably go), there will be lots of talk about trading Reyes, Wright (the ridiculously nicknamed “D-Rod”), and Beltran, the nominal core of the team. As always, these things should be explored. As much as I respect the guy, Beltran, at this stage, makes the most sense to trade if there is a strong offer on the table. The best fit I see is Cincinnati, who has a strong minor league system and could use a centerfielder, if they’re trying to make the leap.

I have to say, though: the core of this Mets team remains high-quality, and it does not need to be destroyed to make the playoffs. By trading for Santana, the Mets committed to remaining in “Win Now” mode for another few seasons (it would have been eminently sensible to go the other way last winter and geared up for a 2009 run, of course, but that wasn’t the chosen course). There just aren’t that many “bold moves” that keep the Mets competitive, unless they bring back a Joey Votto or something, and, if I’m the Reds, I’m not trading Votto in a deal for Beltran.

So, I’ll go out on a limb and say that it’s best to keep this group together again, working on the ancillary parts rather than the core parts.

11. “If Howard gets the MVP, I’m just done.” - Lunkwill Fool, 9/28 Game Thread

Amen. We’ll simplify the MVP vote to just “WARP,” BP’s “wins over replacement level” statistic. Ryan Howard posted a WARP of 4.9. The Mets had six (yes, six) players with higher WARPs.

Player              WARP
David Wright         9.6
Carlos Beltran       9.1
Jose Reyes           8.7
Johan Santana        8.6
Carlos Delgado       7.9
Mike Pelfrey         5.2

But the MVP is clearly:

Albert Pujols       12.8

It would be a gross injustice if Howard got the MVP. Of course, it’s more than just WARP. But what can possibly make up for a difference of 7.9 WARP? Does Ryan Howard prepare the starting pitchers for their matchups with other teams? Does he help get his teammates out of slumps? Does he cook the postgame meals? What could he possibly do that would make him more valuable than Albert Pujols??!?

If Albert Pujols were on the Phillies, they would have been the best team in the league this year. As it was, they squeaked into the playoffs, clinching on the second to last day of the season.

Dan is a student who writes for MetsGeek every Wednesday. He welcomes feedback at dscotto10@gmail.com.

11 Responses to “Musings from a Depressed Fan: 2008 Edition, Part II”

Comment posted by Dep on October 2, 2008 at 8:42 am (#871349)
11. “If Howard gets the MVP, I’m just done.” - Lunkwill Fool, 9/28 Game Thread

bwahahahahahahaha
Comment posted by msc100 on October 2, 2008 at 8:48 am (#871350)
Fantastic analysis, Dan.

I do have a writing tip for you, however. Please try to use the correct tense and mood, rather than relying on “ESPN English.” In other words, scrap “if I’m Minaya…” for “if I were Minaya” and substitute “it’s possible Oliver Perez develops…” for “it’s possible that Oliver Perez will develop.”

I’m obviously nitpicking, but this will enhance your ability to communicate effectively.
Comment posted by Chris in GA on October 2, 2008 at 9:13 am (#871354)
11. “If Howard gets the MVP, I’m just done.” - Lunkwill Fool, 9/28 Game Thread

:)
Comment posted by sheadenizen on October 2, 2008 at 9:22 am (#871355)
I personally couldn’t care less who wins the MVP. I don’t get why it matters, but whatever.

“There’ll be some damage to some people. That’s the sacrifice. That’s the cost.”

This is the sentence that strikes fear in my heart.

As it is now, you hope the Mets’ medical staff is sharp.

This is the sentence that made me laugh the hardest….through my tears.

I would not be trading Wright, Reyes or Beltran. Delgado is my favorite Met, and yes, I’d bring him back, but I honestly am a bit afraid. I hope Minaya is smart enough to have a righty platoon for him.

msc100…was my English okay or was it too ESPNish ;-)
Comment posted by Lunkwill Fook on October 2, 2008 at 9:38 am (#871369)
I appreciate my astute commentary being referenced but HEY NOW!!!!!
Comment posted by Ed in Westchester 2 on October 2, 2008 at 9:40 am (#871374)
11. “If Howard gets the MVP, I’m just done.” - Lunkwill Fool, 9/28 Game Thread

It is what it is.

Fook is getting famous!
Comment posted by Eli on October 2, 2008 at 9:53 am (#871390)
Pujols definitely has my vote (not that I have one) for MVP. It will be interesting to see if he has the elbow surgery he seriously needs. My guess is he won’t have it this fall.
Comment posted by §Ø©ª£ μΣŦƒдⁿ on October 2, 2008 at 2:09 pm (#871687)
1) Pujols is the MVP, no question. But the BBWA are a bunch of morons who seriously considered Delgado as a MVP candidate, I hold no illusions that they’ll make the correct choice.

2)Delgado vs. Lefties:

vs LHP AB HR OBP SLG AVG
Mar/Apr 39 2 0.268 0.410 0.231
May 27 1 0.222 0.370 0.222
June 22 0 0.250 0.318 0.182
July 30 2 0.313 0.567 0.300
Aug 47 2 0.327 0.489 0.298
Sep/Oct 43 5 0.356 0.698 0.326

He actually hit lefties quite well in the second half. So, despite the attrocious start, over the course of the year, his OPS against lefties (.789)was actually right in line with his career norm of (.804). No doubt we could use a Greg Norton (who’ll be a FA, iirc) to give CD a day off every once in a while, but I think that’s more of a need for a decent hitter off the bench (I never want to see Marlon Anderson or ARGH get another pinch hitting appearance as a Met, ever) rather than as a platoon mate for CD.
Comment posted by gottabeliever on October 2, 2008 at 3:11 pm (#871796)
In 2005, it was “Next Year is Now.” In ‘06, “The Team. The Time. The Mets.” “Your Season Has Come,” they told us in 2007, and they didn’t even bother with a slogan this year. Let me be the first to propose 2009’s slogan:

“Our PR Department is Done Writing Checks Our Bullpen Can’t Cash.”

According to baseball-reference.com, the Mets’ bullpen blew 29 saves this year, which was tied with the Nats (worst record in baseball) and Texas (who, if not for the ML-leading 901 runs they scored, might have been deep in the cellar as well). The only team that did worse was Seattle (who had the 2nd worst record in baseball), with 31.

Average among teams that played >162 games this season: 22. Philly’s pen? 15 (best in baseball).

And that’s just blown saves- I didn’t even see the stats on how many games they blew which weren’t save situations.

Even if we didn’t have a shee-hot bullpen like Philly’s, even if all we had was an average-for-a-team-in-the-playoffs pen, that’s seven fewer blown saves. That’s us clinching the NL east two weeks ago and Philly scrapping it out with Milwaukee in the last days of the season.

A bullpen that doesn’t blow 29 saves- that doesn’t walk in a run or give up back-to-back homers in a do-or-die game, for instance- means that the Mets’ hitters aren’t pressing at the plate. Means the Mets win game 162 by a score of 2-1 instead of losing 4-2.

Lousy relief like that, over the course of the season, affects everything further down the line- each time a heartbreaker was lost because the bullpen couldn’t preserve a lead meant a different mindset the next day. Instead of going into a game mentally charged-up and ready to stomp some more buttocks, they had to go in wondering how that day’s game would go wrong too. Momentum gets lost and it makes it that much harder to tear off a big winning streak. It makes you play the last weeks of September facing the possibility of not playing in October. It makes people look at a guy who hit .302 with 33 HR, 124 RBI, and 115 runs scored, and say he choked, when he was one of the main reasons the team won enough games to put him in the position to be accused of choking in the first place.

So rail against the lack of clutch hitting all you want- if your bullpen can hold a lead, you aren’t in the position of having to hit in the clutch.

What slays me is that when Wagner went down, Omar had the chance to do something to help the team win… what does he get us? Ayala, who was already known for blowing games. You want to talk about a lack of clutch performances, talk about this loaf.

Our bullpen’s been an issue since we were munching on TUMS in late innings because of the likes of Stanton, Weathers, Franco (love you, Johnny, but those late years were rough)… remember Heilman giving up the two-run dinger in game 7 of the 2006 NLCS? Remember 2007’s bullpen woes? It was nice that Omar brought in Wagner (who, while he was no longer as lights-out as he’d been with Houston, averaged 37 saves/yr over the 2.75 years we got out of him), but he’s not done much else productive with the pen, which I think is nearly universally known to be our biggest weakness.

And he gets an extension through 2012. What, so he can continue to overpay for new additions to his collection of has-been hispanic players? Disclaimer- I have absolutely nothing against hispanic players (in fact, I am hispanic myself), and I was thrilled with how well Tatis worked out… but that was a fluke, and you have to admit that Omar’s got a soft spot for hispanic players who used to be great.

While we’re in that barrio, can Pedro be retooled to be a closer? That’d be something. Pedro Smoltz.

Omar, if you can hear me, I beg of you- before you do anything else, please, PLEASE, flush that toilet we call a bullpen. And hire Jerry to be the manager.

Although I suppose it’ll be after the postseason that the team announces their decision on Jerry. I really hope he stays. Under Willie, the team was .493 this season, but under Jerry, .598. A whole season of that means 97 wins… upgrade the bullpen so that they’re only blowing 22 saves and you’ve got a team poking into the same stratosphere as the ‘86 club.

Maybe the ‘09 slogan should, like my son’s birthday party, have a Star Wars theme:

“Episode IV: A New Hope.”
—————————

(also published at http://gottabelievers.com)
Comment posted by MightyJoeOrsulak on October 2, 2008 at 9:10 pm (#872018)
Eh…the bullpen is almost every team’s biggest weakness. I’d settle for above average.

And also, in 2006, we had one of the best bullpens in recent memory. All of them had career years; and for much of the season they actually carried our starting pitching…you know…Trachel, Soler, Lima, Gl***ne, Dave Williams, Bannister, Kaz…er…Zambrano.
Comment posted by MightyJoeOrsulak on October 2, 2008 at 9:10 pm (#872019)
And yeah, I’m in the let Perez walk and take the picks camp myself.