When I attend a Savannah Sand Gnats game with the intention of writing about players involved, I spend a little time perusing player rosters from home before heading out the door. During that time, I look to see which players fit some part of this profile;
1. Relatively well known prospects
2. 20 years old or younger
3. 6′4″ or taller pitchers, 6′2″ or taller position players
With that said, I decided to take a close look at three Mets who had just been promoted to Savannah to get a taste of full season baseball and a preview of their likely 2009 home.
Luis Nieves, SS (0-3, 1 R, 1 BB) - Nieves, an international free agent from Venezuela is a hard player to find information on. he posted a .205/.205/.261 line in the GCL before his promotion. However, a 19-year old IF in full season ball will almost always receive a look.
- Looked his listed height/weight of 5′11″ 160 lbs.; Was swimming in his uniform
- Switch hitter; Only batted left handed during the game; Slap hitter
- Plus range; Made great diving play in SS/3B hole; Another play behind the 2B bag
- Made great relay throw from left field to nail runner at home plate
- Above average speed
Obviously Nieves’ bat leaves much to be desired, but the defensive ability is there. He may never be an everyday player, but he could become a useful backup middle infielder and pinch runner with his glove and decent speed.
Michael Olmsted, SP (4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 5 K) - Olmsted is a 21-year old former 9th round pick in the 2007 draft out of Cypress College California. He posted a 9-4 record prior to being drafted with a 4.19 ERA as both a starter and reliever. After missing months due to an arm injury, he advanced quickly through two levels of short season ball en route Savannah. He finished the 2008 season with a 2.67 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 33 2/3 innings pitched and will likely be considered a decent sleeper entering 2009.
- Tall, thick build; Looked listed height/weight of 6′6″ 245; Will need to watch weight as he gets older
- Drops down during delivery; 3/4 sling delivery
- 87-91 MPH with fastball during innings 1-3
- 86-88 with the fastball from the 4th inning on
- Did not finish pitches once tired; Arm remained off to the side during follow through
- Visibly strained to reach 91 MPH; No explosion out of his hand
- Slider consistently around 81 MPH; Used as strikeout pitch on outer half of the plate; Badly fooled a few hitters in the dirt
- Threw curveball 68-71 MPH; Used sparingly
- Lived on the outer half with the fastball all night; Did not challenge hitters ahead in the count
- Did not hold runners on well; Allowed easy double steal
- 2 wild pitches, 1 passed ball; crossed up catcher?
I watched Olmsted struggle through his worst outing of the season. I was impressed by his slider, but the rest of his arsenal left something to be desired. For a man so tall to drop down to a low 3/4 delivery has to take away from his velocity doesn’t it? A couple of additional ticks on the fastball and a slider with a little more bite could land him a bullpen job in New York at some point, but I question his ability as a starter having to work through a lineup two or three times in an outing.
Stefan Welch, 3B (2-4, 1 HR, 1 2B, 3 RBI, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 K) - Welch was signed as an international free agent out of Australia as an 18-year old in 2006. Now 20, he batted .279/.320/.449 for the season with most of those at bats coming in the short season Appalachian League. Welch will likely become a prospect Mets fans argue about as he is far from a prototypical third basemen, but talented just the same.
- Ultra-Lean 6′3″, 175 lb. build; Will he be able to add size?
- Left-handed hitter; Right-handed swing; No visible trademark lefty uppercut
- Line drive stroke; Level through the ball
- Plus bat speed; Kept hands inside the ball well; Short & quick through the zone
- Hands held very low in his stance
- During his load, he became taller causing his eyes to change plane; Could be the cause of his inconsistency
- Laced double to right field; Left before his home run
- Questionable range at 3B; Did not seem to move well laterally; What happens if he gains size?
- Arm seemed about average
- Hit 1st pitch check swing roller back to the mound with 1 out and the bases loaded
- Short, choppy steps when running the bases
Welch is a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type of prospect. On the positive side, he has excellent height, bat speed, and hopefully room to add size and strength although his frame may limit exactly how much on the other hand, he’s rail thin right now and has a line drive swing instead of a typical lefty uppercut. His arm strength is average, but his range may be a a little below. He had decent speed, but no length to his stride. With all the positives and negatives in his game, I’m not sure where he fits in over the long haul. He has more of a middle infield offensive skill set, but will have to play a corner position. The question becomes can he advance in an atypical fashion similar to Daniel Murphy with added size and enough versatility to play more than one position? If successful, he has an opportunity to be useful player at higher levels and possibly a big league career.
Read more articles by Mike Newman at
Baseball Handyman.
Mike grew up a Mets fan in the days of Straw and Doctor K and is excited to be the newest contributor to Metsgeek! Hit me up at BaseballHandyman@comcast.net with any comments or article ideas.
Thanks for the interesting article Mike. Sometimes, players make unexpected big leaps, but in the meantime, sounds like there is not much to get too excited about at Savannah. In case you’re “listening”, I have a couple of questions:
I was wondering if you have remained in touch with Henry Owens and know how his rehab is progressing. He caught my imagination while in the Mets farm system and was sorry to see him traded but still followed him once he got to the Marlins.
I was also curious if most scouts put that much attention on height. It’s true that you won’t find many successful 5′7″ players but there are a lot between 5′10″ and 6′1″, a category you don’t give as much attention to.
Savannah has been a relative wasteland for prospects the past couple of years. This year was not much different. Until the Mets stop skipping their top guys through Savannah entirely, it won’t get much better. I have my fingers crossed that both Wilmer Flores and Jefry Marte will end up here in 2009.
As for Owens, I haven’t really spoken to him since college. He had a cannon for an arm back then, but wasn’t much of a catcher or hitter. We all begged the coach to stick him on the mound to see what he could do, but he never did. We certainly could have made better use of him back then. With that said, I’m not sure about his arm injury, but I do know that once a player develops the muscle memory of making throws from the ear like a catcher instead of extending fully, it’s very hard to go back to a typical throwing motion. Because of that fact, Henry will always be somewhat of an injury risk.
To answer your question on height, the best college hitters are in the 5′10 - 6′0″ range. With that said, players with great success in college rarely become elite major league hitters. In my opinion, height is the first indicator of future projection with build being a close second. A young player with good height and a little thickness through the shoulders, forearms, and hips can be looked at as somebody who will add power or velocity with age. If skills like contact ability or pitch location are already there, the ability to project more power or velocity is icing on the cake. Jason Heyward would be a GREAT example of that. He’s currently 6′4″ with some size, but room to really fill out. Hence, his 11 home runs this season are a sign of bigger and better things to come, not a peak projection.
Of the players in the sally I saw, he impressed me the most. When he popped up, they were major league pop ups.
I saw him a couple of weeks ago and wrote him up here:
The URL did not post on the Heyward piece. http://baseballhandyman.blogspot.com/2008/09/scouting-sally-jason-heyward-of-atl.html