Having finally made it through the Dog Days, it’s high time to do a quick rundown in order to handicap the NL East race. I figure that I’ll start in the most obvious but oft-forgotten place: who are these teams playing down the stretch? This is current as of Tuesday morning, September 2nd. The standings, at present, read as follows:

Mets: 76-61
Phils: 74-63

The Phils’ schedule reads as follows:

1. 24 games remaining
2. 13 home games, 11 road games
3. 3 games against the Mets
4. 5 games against the Nationals
5. 6 games against the Marlins
6. 4 games against the Brewers
7. 6 games against the Braves

The Mets’ schedule, on the other hand:

1. 24 games remaining
2. 15 home games, 9 road games
3. 3 games against the Phils
4. 6 games against the Nationals
5. 3 games against the Marlins
6. 2 games against the Brewers
7. 4 games against the Cubs
8. 6 games against the Braves

We’ll use third-order winning percentage for those teams, and I’ll take a weighted average of those winning percentages in order to get a rough measure of “strength of schedule.” (Third order winning percentage takes into account run differential, run-scoring components, and the quality of opponent in order to calculate a team’s “true” strength. The numbers are available at Baseball Prospectus.)

Mets: .490
Phils: .484

The Mets have a slightly tougher schedule. But what if we give home field advantage a 4% edge?

Mets: .485
Phils: .482

The gap closed in half, thanks to the two extra home games. Perhaps the bigger deal, though: the Mets have four games against the Cubs, probably one of the two or three best teams in the game. But it’s quite possible that the Cubs will have clinched the Central already. For the sake of argument, let’s think about 2006, certainly a happier time in Mets lore. The Mets clinched the division on September 18th against the Marlins with the following starting lineup:

1. Jose Reyes (SS)
2. Paul Lo Duca (C)
3. Carlos Beltran (CF)
4. Carlos Delgado (1B)
5. David Wright (3B)
6. Cliff Floyd (LF)
7. Shawn Green (RF)
8. Jose Valentin (2B)
9. Steve Trachsel (P)

That’s the A-team from ‘06. They won that day 4-0, after several days of futility beforehand. What did they do on the 19th?

1. Anderson Hernandez (SS)
2. Endy Chavez (CF)
3. Lastings Milledge (LF)
4. Julio Franco (3B)
5. Michael Tucker (1B)
6. Chris Woodward (2B)
7. Ricky Ledee (RF)
8. Mike DiFelice (C)
9. Tom Glavine (P)

The next day’s lineup was a joke. Julio Franco at third? 21-year old Lastings Milledge in the 3-hole? But this is the luxury of a team that clinches early! And the Mets may well run into at least one or two games like that against the Cubs. The Cubbies currently lead the NL Central by five games. If they hold that five game lead, they clinch the division on September 24… against the Mets! A six-game lead has them clinching on September 23rd . . . against the Mets! Seven games is the 22nd, against the Mets! Eight games is the 21st . . . the day before the Met series!

Really, this is a stroke of luck for the Mets in the scheduling. It is at least within the realm of possibility that the Mets will get the Cubs’ B-team on one or more games in their four-game set. If we merely drop the Cubs to a .500 team for all four games, with the B-team on the field, the schedule strength changes dramatically:

Mets: .471
Phils: .482

Much easier. What if we drop them to a .400 team?

Mets: .454
Phils: .482

Because the Cubs are so good, changing their winning percentage so dramatically makes the Mets’ schedule (on average) significantly easier than the Phils’ schedule. The Cubs also play their last game of the season at Wrigley on September 21st, too, so it’s quite possible that the Cubbies play a 1:20 game against the Cards, win the division, celebrate vigorously in Chicago, and come out to New York a little tired. The Mets, of course, will be coming in fired up (we hope), starting their last homestand of the last regular season at Shea in front of 50,000 fans, maybe just one or two games up. I don’t like armchair psychoanalysis or anything like that, but this is clearly an advantage for the Mets.

So the Mets would have the upper-hand in this race even if the two teams were dead tied. And, as of 7:30 PM on Monday, September 1st, the Mets are two games up.

Bottom line: I’m bullish this year about the Mets’ chances down the stretch. Baseball is awfully hard to predict, and, for what it’s worth, I was bullish last year, too. But the schedule is on the Mets’ side right now.