Baseball sure is fun when the Mets are winning, isn’t it? And I hate to admit it, but it’s still nice to see the Mets beat the Braves, even though these aren’t the Braves of old. With a dramatic, walk-off win last night, the Mets (71-57) swept those pesky Braves and captured their ninth win in 10 games to push themselves 2.5 games ahead of the second-place Phillies. Next up are the Houston Astros (64-63), who, as some of you might recall, swept the Mets back in early August.

It’s another four-game weekend series. The opener is a battle of aces: Roy Oswalt (11-8, 4.28) against Johan Santana (11-7, 2.75). Next, Brandon Backe (7-12, 5.62) takes on John Maine (10-7, 3.82) on Saturday, followed by Randy Wolf (8-11, 4.81) and Oliver Perez (9-7, 3.93) on Sunday. Finally, the Astros will throw Brian Moehler (9-4, 3.87) against the Mets’ Mike Pelfrey (12-8, 3.86).

Game 1: Roy Oswalt, RHP

What’s the Story? You may read my original report on Oswalt here.

This Year: Oswalt was so-so in his start against the Mets at the beginning of the month. He went six innings and struck out seven, but he allowed four runs on six hits—including two doubles and a homerun—and walked three.

What to Expect: Oswalt’s in the midst of the most disappointing season of his career, and I’m not entirely sure why. Actually, I lied; I have a pretty good clue:

           ERA    GB%    K/9   BB/9   HR/9
Career    3.18   47.9   7.46   2.08   0.76
2008      4.28   47.7   7.59   2.35   1.21

All his ratios are pretty much right in line with his career norms. All, that is, except his homerun rate which has jumped up half a homerun per game. The surprising thing is that it’s jumped up despite a groundball rate that’s a near perfect match for his career mark. It means a disproportionate number of his outfield flies (15%) are leaving the yard, something that’s probably just a result of lousy luck. I should also point out that Oswalt’s been pretty good lately, going 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA over his last three starts.

Game 2: Brandon Backe, RHP

What’s the Story? You may read my original report on Backe here.

This Year: It’s a miracle Backe escaped allowing just three runs during his first start against the Mets this season. He went six innings, walked two, and gave up ten hits. But he minimized the damage to nine singles and a double, leaving with a no-decision in the seventh inning. The Astros went on to win with four runs in the eighth inning.

What to Expect: Backe’s been very up-and-down this season, due in large part to his control, which will either be pretty good or pretty awful. Take the three starts he’s had since he last faced the Mets, for example. In the first, he gave up 11 runs on nine hits and six walks over three-plus innings. In the second, he went seven strong innings, giving up one run on four hits and three walks. And the third? Five-plus innings, 11 runs, nine hits, five walks. Mets hitters should be patient early, and if he doesn’t have command, Backe will do the rest for them. If he’s pretty sharp, he has a chance to be effective.

Game 3: Randy Wolf, LHP

What’s the Story? You may read my original report on Wolf here.

This Year: This will be Wolf’s third start against the Mets, and he’s done quite well this year. He’s thrown 12 innings, allowing one run on 13 hits with five walks and nine strikeouts. He earned game scores of 59 and wins in both starts.

What to Expect: Like Backe, Wolf is coming off a pretty poor start. Wolf lasted only four innings, giving up six runs on five hits and three walks. Wolf pointed to his refusal to give hitters pitches to hit when no one was on base as his downfall: “There were spots with nobody on, and I have to be more aggressive. They’re obviously good hitters, but if they hit the ball out of the park, it’s only a solo home run and I can go after the next guy.” He nibbled too much, issued a couple of walks, and gave the Brewers a chance to rally. If you’ll remember, he had the same issue against the Mets, who failed to capitalize: “Those are some big situations, and obviously that team can hit, so you don’t want to make a mistake. I might have been too fine, that’s why I made so many pitches. But you’ve got to be tough with those guys.” The Mets forced Wolf to throw 50 pitches over two innings. It was a case of the right approach, but poor situational hitting.

Game 4: Brian Moehler, RHP

What’s the Story? Brian Moehler’s having himself a quiet little comeback in 2008, after nearly finding himself on his way out of the game after a disastrous 2006 campaign. The Astros took a flier on Moehler, though, and gave him a job in the back of their bullpen, and he pitched serviceably. Moehler started the year in the ’pen again this year, but found himself back in the starting role in early May. Since then, he’s possibly been Houston’s most reliable starter, giving up more than three runs just five times this season. Moehler throws an 87-91 fastball with sink, a good cutter, an average slider, and an average changeup.

Last Year: Moehler made one relief appearance against the Mets last season, allowing two runs over two-and-a-third. He is 2-4 with a 3.03 ERA over 29.2 lifetime innings against the Mets.

What to Expect: Moehler knows his strength lies in his sinking fastball and cutter. Don’t expect him to throw very many breaking balls at all—especially to lefties—and he’ll stick to fastball-cutter until the Mets start hitting them. Moehler’s a guy who tries to throw strikes and let the hitters swing into weak contact—grounders with the sinker, infield flies with the cutter. I should note that he hasn’t been a guy who’s pitched deep into games this year—he’s made it through seven just four times this year—so the Astros’ bullpen will likely get some work in.

Overall: The Mets could win this series, but I’m going to say a split. The Santana-Oswalt matchup could be a lot of fun to watch with both pitchers hitting their stride, but I’ll take the Mets in a close one. I also like Maine over Backe, but I think the Astros will rally behind Randy Wolf and Brian Moehler, both of whom scare me as pitchers who always seem to play the Mets tough. But I could see them winning one of the two; I just won’t predict it.