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August 20, 2008

Draft Notes from Brooklyn

Scribbled by: Alex Nelson @ 2:37 am | Filed under: Articles, Mets Minors

Some of you might be wondering why I’m talking about the draft again, but the deadline to sign draft picks passed on Friday, meaning we now know who is actually being brought into the organization and who isn’t. Due to the fact that many draftees have the option of signing or not, it isn’t fair to evaluate a team’s draft until after the negotiation window has closed. In truth, this affected the Mets far less than other teams. Most of their picks—thanks to a college-heavy draft—signed quickly, and the Mets didn’t fail to sign anybody until 15th-rounder Jamie Bruno, a Tulane-bound high school first baseman. On the whole, they failed to sign only five of their first 45 picks.

The Mets used a mere eight picks on high school players: Javier Rodriguez (2), Mike Hebert (7), Brian Valenzuela (10), Jamie Bruno (15), Kyle Allen (24), Mike Giuffre (29), Charlie Hinojosa (39), and Kameron Brunty (50). All signed except Bruno, Giuffre, and Brunty. I’m not sure any team focused less on high school players, other than possibly the Padres and Cubs. I would’ve tried to balance things out a little more and perhaps taken a flier on a talent that fell due to signability. While you can’t (and shouldn’t) try to sign every prep kid that falls—remember, there are signings that are the equivalent of bad big-league contracts—I would’ve liked to see the Mets make a stab at somebody with a little more upside in the mid-to-late rounds.

In any event, here are some notes about a few of the members Mets’ draft class currently at Brooklyn, all college players:

One of the most intriguing selections the Mets made was centerfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis, the top-ranked prospect from the NAIA. Nieuwenhuis is a big centerfielder with enough speed and arm to stick in center. I had previously pointed him out as someone to watch, because I wasn’t quite sure what to expect. While I thought he could struggle—he hasn’t faced top-level competition in the NAIA—he was the Alaska League’s player of the year, showing an aptitude with wood bats. His performance at Brooklyn has been fairly impressive, as he’s hitting especially well during August. To date, he’s put up a .300/.371/.406 line overall.

The power hasn’t manifested itself yet, but he might have a little more pop in him, considering his size and the fact that he’s still just 20. And the on-base skills are certainly encouraging. One thing to watch out for is his 21.2% strikeout rate: it suggests that his hitting skills might not hold up as he advances.

Other than Niewenhuis and first-round selection Reese Havens, the hitters in Brooklyn haven’t gotten off to a great start. First-round choice Ike Davis’s troubles have been well noticed—I figured he would start out slowly due to his struggles in the Cape Cod League and some mechanical issues with his swing—but few have noticed the degree to which fourth-round pick Sean Ratliff has struggled. Ratliff was drafted out of Stanford, where he displayed solid average speed, lots of power, and very little polish at the plate. He’s got a strange, upright swing with some serious length to it, and it’s showed; he’s hitting an anemic .208/.302/.362 and has struck out 50 times over 170 plate appearances. I think the lack of contact ability is going to be a long-term struggle for Ratliff.

I liked sixth-round selection Josh Satin, but he’s been mediocre at the plate (.259/.325./389), too, although he has been hitting a little better lately. He will have to bat better than that to be an asset, however, when you consider that many scouts feel he’ll have to move off second as time moves on. There is good news. He’s got the height (6’3”) and batspeed to hit for more power.

One exception to the above might be third sacker Eric Campbell, drafted in the eighth round out of Boston College, who’s hitting .270/.371/.384. He’s got a nice approach at the plate, and, like Nieuwenhuis, he has the ability to hit for more power. The scouting reports claimed that he has a few holes in his swing, but the solid average and strikeout rate (15.9%) suggest New York-Penn pitchers haven’t found them yet.

On the mound, there’s been a lot more to like in Brooklyn. Brad Holt’s pro career is off to a great start, but they’ve gotten some quality performances from a couple other guys, too.

Righty Chris Schwinden has been phenomenal, pitching his way to a 1.31 ERA over 48 innings with 53 strikeouts and just 10 walks. Schwinden was selected out of Fresno Pacific University in the 22nd round, possessing a high-80s fastball and outstanding command. He lacks a good breaking pitch though, offering both a slider and curve, but he does have a pretty good changeup. Standing six-three and weighing 165, he might have some projection left; a little more velocity could help him out a ton.

Scott Shaw, a big righty out of the University of Illinois, was taken in the 13th round and is in a similar position to Schwinden. Right now he’s getting by (3.12 ERA, 56 strikeouts, 12 walks over 52 innings) with superior command of his fastball, but he lacks velocity and good secondary stuff. Despite a large frame (6’5”, 230 lbs.) his fastball only touches 90, his second best pitch is a changeup, and his curve has some promise but is still a little wobbly. The slider is even further away. Also like Schwinden, he’d look a lot better with some more heat, and there are some obvious things he can do to improve his velocity. His stride is a little short for a pitcher his size, and he doesn’t generate enough torque from his torso.

Both guys (and Brad Holt) might be in trouble once they move up. Pitchers in the New York-Penn League can succeed with just fastball command and little else; that won’t fly at higher levels.

Jeff Kaplan, the team’s 11th round selection out of Cal State-Fullerton, has been so-so, going 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA and a 28:14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 32 innings. Kaplan, a short righty, looks more like a potential reliever to me. He throws from a low three-quarters arm slot similar to Eddie Kunz and throws across his body. He can touch 92, but his fastball has a tendency to flatten out when he does; he gets better sink when he throws 87-89. He’s got a pretty good slider he’ll throw in the low-80s.

I’m going to restrain myself from commenting on anyone else for the time being. I either don’t know much about them or they haven’t played enough yet. I’ll also try to look over the guys at lower levels in a week or two.

Alex is a raving lunatic whose work can be found regularly here at Mets Geek. He welcomes comments and criticisms at kingblackfish@yahoo.com.

6 Responses to “Draft Notes from Brooklyn”

Comment posted by Tim in LA on August 20, 2008 at 5:05 am (#810743)
Legitimate question — who cares about guys who throw in the high 80s? Do any pitchers ever come up not hitting low 90s, and prove successful? The junkballers who can’t hit 90 alway seem to be older guys who used to hit 90. Is there any history there? And if not, are guys like Schwinden even worth talking about, unless they find some velocity?
Comment posted by Danny on August 20, 2008 at 8:03 am (#810746)
Alex, one of the guys the Mets are really excited about is Eric Beaulac. When I saw his scouting video, I immediately thought “reliever”, he sort of has a herky-jerky motion and he seemed like a fastball/slider guy with pretty good velocity but mostly a lot of movement.

Apparently Beaulac touched 98 in his professional debut at Kingsport. I didn’t see velocity anywhere near that in his scouting video, so I don’t know what the deal is there, but he certainly has a very high K rate so far.

Definitely an arm to watch.
Comment posted by Danny on August 20, 2008 at 8:17 am (#810751)
Oh, and I loved Nieuwenhuis when I saw that one Brooklyn game. Big, athletic type with a great arm in the field. I’m not sure about his hitting. I need to see him more. He got off to a slow start at Brooklyn at the plate, but has really heated up lately (978 OPS in August so far).

And I just realized you are only talking about Brooklyn guys so I apologize for the Beaulac stuff, although he DID spend a mere 3.2 innings in Brooklyn this year!
Comment posted by john on August 20, 2008 at 8:29 am (#810757)
Comment posted by Tim in LA on August 20, 2008 at 5:05 am (#810743)
Legitimate question — who cares about guys who throw in the high 80s? Do any pitchers ever come up not hitting low 90s, and prove successful? The junkballers who can’t hit 90 alway seem to be older guys who used to hit 90. Is there any history there? And if not, are guys like Schwinden even worth talking about, unless they find some velocity?

I think the thing with these guys (guys in the lower minor leagues) maybe since they are so young, the velocity will develop as they get older. So while one might be hitting 88 now, maybe in a few years they are hitting 92-93….I dont know tho.

One guy in Brooklyn that does have a big time fastball is Mejia. He has some control issues but he can hit 95+ on the fastball and actually has a nice curve at times. I like him alot.
Comment posted by Alex Nelson on August 20, 2008 at 8:41 am (#810761)
And I just realized you are only talking about Brooklyn guys so I apologize for the Beaulac stuff, although he DID spend a mere 3.2 innings in Brooklyn this year!

Boy, am I glad I decided to jump in the shower before responding, Danny. You did it for me. Beaulac, Brandon Moore, and Erik Turgeon will be some of the first guys I talk about next time.

Legitimate question — who cares about guys who throw in the high 80s? Do any pitchers ever come up not hitting low 90s, and prove successful? The junkballers who can’t hit 90 alway seem to be older guys who used to hit 90. Is there any history there? And if not, are guys like Schwinden even worth talking about, unless they find some velocity?

Well, first, they are worth talking about because they could find some. I don’t think Schwinden will, but it’s possible, because he could still fill out a bit (he’s very thin). Also, there are plenty of guys who come up who really only touch 90 as Schwinden does. One guy who immediately comes to mind is John Lannan, who mostly sits 86-89.

Schwinden’s problem isn’t that he throws in the high-80s. It’s that he throws in the high 80s and doesn’t have great offspeed stuff. Is he worth mentioning? Yeah, because right now he’s pitching great. Does that performance change his prospect status? Not really.
Comment posted by john on August 20, 2008 at 8:49 am (#810763)
Roy Merritt also seems to be impressive. 41K’s 15BB’s in 29.2 Innings. Thats a nice K rate right there lol.