Been a while since we’ve seen these guys, right? Just before the Mets (65-56) swept the Washington Nationals this past week, the Mets made up a single rainout against the Pittsburgh Pirates (55-66) from April. That game didn’t go particularly well, unless you’re the sort of person who likes terribly unsatisfying, heart-crushing losses, and nearly made me swear off Mets baseball forever. The Mets will try to redeem that performance during this weekend’s four-game set at PNC Park. Of course, that’s impossible without the help of head trauma, but a sweep would help me sleep a little easier.

Mike Pelfrey (10-8, 4.11) and Jason Davis (1-1, 1.38) are due to face each other during Friday’s opener. Saturday—Geek Day 2008—will feature a matchup between Pedro Martinez (3-3, 5.37) and Zach Duke (4-10, 5.10). They’ll be followed by Johan Santana (10-7, 2.89) and Jeff Karstens (2-1, 1.23) on Sunday and John Maine (10-7, 3.97) and Paul Maholm (8-7, 3.69) on Monday.

Game 1: Jason Davis, RHP

What’s the Story? As a 23-year-old in 2003, Jason Davis was looking like a promising young pitcher, going 8-11 with a 4.68 ERA for the Indians—not bad for a young starter. Sure, there were warning signs—a poor strikeout rate, too many homeruns—but it wasn’t a bad start to a career. What the Indians couldn’t have expected was for the bottom to drop out as quickly as it did. He was bombed the next season, forcing the team to bounce him between the bullpen and Triple-A until 2007 with limited success. The team raised the white flag that season, shipping him to Seattle. He signed a minor league contract with the Rangers during the offseason but was released at the end of March, when the Bucs picked him up. The Pirates recalled him from Triple-A in late July and have since moved him into their rotation. The six-foot-six Davis has solid stuff: a four-seamer that can touch 97, a low-90s two-seamer, a pretty good splitter, and an average slider.

Last Year: Davis hasn’t made an appearance against the Mets since 2004, when he allowed seven runs over four innings.

What to Expect: Davis made his first start against the Phillies on Sunday and allowed only two unearned runs over six innings and 90 pitches, though he did allow eight baserunners. Davis prefers to work off his sinking two-seamer rather than his harder four-seamer. He will turn to the four-seam fastball when he wants to climb the ladder, but he’s largely focused on getting groundball outs. He’ll use the splitter as his primary out-pitch, though he will throw a handful of sliders to right-handed hitters, too.

Game 2: Zach Duke, LHP

What’s the Story?You may find my original scouting report on Duke here.

This Year: Duke made his only start of the season against the Mets on Monday. It shouldn’t be terribly difficult to remember: six innings, five runs, eight hits, two homeruns, one walk, three strikeouts, one catastrophic meltdown by the Mets’ bullpen.

What to Expect: Duke’s really a finesse pitcher who relies on superior command to get batters out. He tries to pound the lower strike zone with fastballs and come back against lefties with the curve, righties with the changeup. He is prone to missing his spots and leaving the occasional pitch up in the zone, and when it happens, he can be hit hard. In the end, he doesn’t have enough stuff to blow anything by hitters, and he doesn’t get enough sink to be an elite groundball artist. What results is a pretty mediocre pitcher.

Game 3: Jeff Karstens, RHP

What’s the Story? The Pirates recently acquired Karstens from the Yankees last month as part of the Xavier Nady deal, which was much-maligned at the time. Right now, it’s looking like a win-win. Nady’s hitting a ton, and, while not the centerpiece of the package the Pirates received, Karstens has been very impressive early in his Nationals career, immediately reeling off 15 scoreless innings upon his arrival. I wouldn’t expect him to continue to dominate the National League, however. He has an 8:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and he’s never been considered a good prospect due to fringy stuff. He works his sinking fastball in the high-80s and can touch 92 with the four-seamer. He throws a good changeup, an average slider, and a below average curve.

Last Year: Karstens has never pitched against the Mets.

What to Expect: Karstens is really a finesse arm; he has plus control, four pitches—three of which he can command well—and a lot of pitchability. That said, he needs to keep the ball down more when he pitches, something he’s been terrible at in the majors for most of his career. While he relies on a sinker, his career groundball rate is just 34.8%, far below average. A pitcher without top-notch stuff simply cannot leave that many pitches up in the zone, or else he’ll get hit hard, which is exactly what happened to Karstens on the Yankees.

Game 4: Paul Maholm, LHP

What’s the Story? Like Davis, Maholm followed up a promising rookie campaign with a poorer sophomore effort. What was encouraging about Maholm, however, was that despite seeing a rise in his ERA, his strikeouts or homerun rates didn’t see radical differences, and he greatly improved his walk ratio. In 2008, his ERA has dropped by nearly a run-and-a-half, and his strikeout rate, while still not good, is the highest it’s ever been. In short, Maholm appears as if he’s emerged as a solid league-average innings eater, which has quite a bit of value. Maholm throws a sinking fastball that hovers around 90, a very good changeup, a solid curve, and an average slider.

Last Year: Maholm made one start against the Mets in 2007, pitching solidly for six innings before being removed at the start of the seventh after allowing two straight singles. The final tally was six innings, three runs, six hits, a walk, three strikeouts, and a homerun to Lastings Milledge.

What to Expect: Maholm will be the third straight finesse pitcher the Pirates throw at the Mets, but he is probably their best. He’s got excellent control, walking just 41 batters this year, and he gets an above average number of grounders, something neither of his junkballing counterparts do especially well. He’ll work with all four pitchers, though he does tend to throw more breaking stuff to lefties, who are hitting an anemic .176/.225/.304 against him this season. Otherwise, expect a lot of strikes low in the zone.

Overall: I think the Mets have a good chance to take three of four here. I like the Mets’ chances at hitting Davis, but I’m not terribly confident in the matchup on Saturday. I will pick the Mets to win a squeaker though, thanks to Geek Day magic. I have a sinking feeling that they’ll lose on Sunday—Johan can’t escape bad luck two starts in a row—before taking the series with a win on Monday.