After taking two of three from the Marlins over the weekend to push the team into second place by a half-game, the Mets—or more specifically, the Mets’ bullpen, led by Aaron Heilman—promptly gave back that half-game lead in a loss to the Pirates on Monday. Next up, the Mets (62-56) face the last place Washington Nationals (44-75) at Nationals Park. Hopefully, the Nats are so bad that the bullpen won’t be able to cost them a game. Well, hopefully not more than one, at least.

The Mets plan on tossing Johan Santana (9-7, 2.85), John Maine (9-7, 4.13), returning from his stint on the DL, and Oliver Perez (8-7, 3.90). Meanwhile, the Nats are back to running just about anyone with an arm out there. They’ll toss Odalis Perez (5-8, 4.10), Jason Bergmann (2-8, 4.13), and rookie Collin Balester (2-4, 4.66). I don’t know about you, but I was desperately hoping for an Odalis Perez-Oliver Perez matchup. Another time, perhaps.

Game 1: Odalis Perez, LHP

What’s the Story? You can find my original scouting report on Perez here.

This Year: Perez has made two starts against the Mets this season. The first came on April 15th in a game the Nats lost 6-0. Perez went six, giving up two runs on six hits and four walks while striking out three. Both runs actually came on a two-run homerun by David Wright in the first inning. From that point onward, Perez managed to repeatedly escape trouble despite allowing eight more baserunners. In the second start, on May 12th, Perez left with one out in the seventh, having allowed four runs on 11 hits and two walks while striking out five. He allowed another homer to Wright, plus one more to Damion Easley. Both were solo shots. The Nats wound up winning the game 10-4.

What to Expect: One thing really stands out about Perez this season: righties are murdering him. Check these splits out:

Split            PA    BA   OBA   SLG
Vs. Righties    386  .308  .378  .543
Vs. Lefties     108  .190  .236  .506

It’s tough to be a successful pitcher when almost 80% of your opponents OPS .921 against you. The problem is that his changeup isn’t a very good pitch, despite the fact that he throws a ton of them. He also throws a cutter to compensate, but it’s failed to do the job. If I were the Mets, I’d consider stacking the lineup with righties.

Game 2: Jason Bergmann, RHP

What’s the Story? The Nationals used Bergmann solely as a starter for the first time in 2007, and the results weren’t bad through his first nine starts. He went just 1-4, but with a 2.72 ERA and 46 strikeouts over 53 innings. Over his last 12 starts—during which he fought off elbow injury—fortune did a 180. Despite pitching poorly, Bergmann went 5-2. His ERA rose to 5.92, his strikeout rate fell, and homeruns became a big problem. This year he’s been better, posting a 3.15 ERA since being recalled from the minors in May, although he’s once again gotten no run support. Bergmann throws four pitches: a high 80s fastball, a pretty good slider and curve, and a so-so changeup.

This Year: Bergmann made his first start against the Mets after being recalled from his exile in the minors, and it was a gem. He threw seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits and two walks while striking out nine. The 78 game score he earned was a season-high.

What to Expect: In the minors, Bergmann relied heavily on his fastball-curve combination. When he got to the big leagues, however, he realized he was having more trouble throwing the curve for strikes, so he started using the slider as his primary out pitch. This year, he’s back with the curve, though he’s still throwing a fair number of sliders, particularly to righties. Lefties are still hitting him pretty well, but he’s limited their power numbers, which is important, because he’s as homerun-prone as ever.

Game 3: Collin Balester, RHP

What’s the Story? The Nats called up Balester, their third-best prospect according to Baseball America, in early July to take the place of the perpetually injured Shawn Hill. Balester was pitching reasonably well for Triple-A Columbus, going 9-3 with a solid 4.00 ERA and a 64:23 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 78.2 innings of work. He won his first start, throwing five innings of one-run ball against the Marlins, but he’s been up-and-down since. Balester has a good fastball that sits in the low 90s and can touch 96. He also throws an above average hard curve and an inconsistent changeup.

Last Year: Balester has never faced the Mets.

What to Expect: Expect Balester to follow the usual gameplan: fastballs to set up curves against righties, changeups against lefties. Balester has that great fastball, but he tends to pitch to contact more than you might expect. He doesn’t always use the curve to great effect due to some occasional problems locating it. Second, I think he may struggle some against lefties as he continues to pitch at the big league level. The changeup isn’t a great pitch due to his tendency to throw it too hard. He’ll sometimes throw it in the high-80s, giving the pitch less movement and speed differential in relation to his fastball. Lefties haven’t been a problem yet, but the sample size is small.

Overall: I’ll pick the Mets to lose the opener but take the second two. Johan can’t seem to buy a win, so expect the bullpen to be in fine form as usual. And while Bergmann dominated the Mets the last time out, I think he’ll be less successful the second time around, although John Maine will bear watching. Oliver Perez has been fantastic lately, so I’ll choose him over the rookie Balester.