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August 4, 2008
Bullpen Fix?
As I watched the Met bullpen give away yet another lead, I spent some time tonight thinking about the Mets’ bullpen. While it’s not in good shape, I think there are a few different things that the Mets should do, almost immediately. These things should help, at least a little. The Mets spent July trying to improve their bullpen, and fans hoped for the cheap acquisition of a Brian Fuentes or Damaso Marte. Unfortunately, the Mets couldn’t land a cheap reliever, and they were wise enough not to deal prospects for a rent-a-player who might not even help all that much. But the problem still remains: the Mets have to find a way to improve the run-prevention capabilities of their bullpen. So, they have to make do with what they have. I can think of two ways to improve that run prevention: 1. Get better pitchers. We’ll try to do both things here. 1. The “better pitcher” the Mets have is Eddie Kunz. Kunz has spent the year in Double-A, a year removed from being the 42nd overall pick in the 2007 draft (out of Oregon State). College closers are generally drafted high because you can get them into the big league picture pretty quickly. Kunz is a dramatic groundballer. At 6′5″, he seems like a classic tall-and-fall-type. In 48.1 innings, Kunz has fanned 43 and posted a 3.5 groundball-to-flyball ratio. More nicely, he hasn’t given up a run in over a month, and his control has improved dramatically as the season’s progressed. Kunz would certainly help. Ideally, he should replace Duaner Sanchez immediately, with Sanchez sliding to the DL to recuperate from his knee injury. 2. Jerry Manuel has done a pretty good job getting the right guys into the lineup based on his starting pitchers. Simply put, Damion Easley cannot start with Mike Pelfrey pitching; it’s just not fair to Pelfrey. I love Easley, and he’s got a solid bat for a second baseman, but there’s no doubt that he doesn’t have the range to be an everyday second baseman. Manuel seems to have come around to this view. Argenis Reyes has started at second base for each of Pelfrey’s last three starts. The Mets will have to be more assertive in getting the right defense in behind their bullpen pitchers in the late innings. They have a very interesting dynamic in their pitching staff. Check out these groundball-to-flyball numbers:
Or, if you want to classify them in a more qualitative way, you can split up the Met pitchers as follows:
The Mets have four relievers with distinct groundball tendencies. And Kunz is more dramatic than any of them. So, what do we know about the Met defense? Here’s what I’m getting at: on an average day, the Mets pitch someone who is a flyball pitcher (Maine, Perez), or at least trends in that direction (Santana, Pedro). They then relieve that pitcher with someone with heavy groundball tendencies. The Mets need to work their defense to match this, if at all possible. Thus, my suggestions: 1. Carlos Delgado should be removed for a defensive replacement by the eighth inning. At this point, Fernando Tatis is their best bet; he has the mobility of a third baseman over at first, and he has shown that he can scoop throws from the dirt. Delgado is not a bad defensive player, per se (he picks throws in the dirt quite well), but he lacks range. 2. Damion Easley should be replaced in the late innings by Argenis Reyes. Luis Castillo, when he comes back, should be treated the same way. The Mets need to do something to increase the run-prevention capabilities of the bullpen. In any game where the Mets have a multi-run lead, Delgado should be taken out by the eighth. In any game where the bullpen is used at all, multi-run lead or no, Easley should come out for Reyes. Second base defense is a big problem for this team right now. This kind of solution is essentially the back-door solution to aiding a problematic bullpen. Instead of upgrading the pitchers themselves, this strategy represents a concerted effort by the Mets to put their pitchers in positions to succeed. And for a group that is clearly struggling, that’s certainly the way to start. Also, an addendum: I think the Mets should consider moving Pedro to the bullpen, if he continues to struggle in starts. I’m not sure how it would work, but a guy like Claudio Vargas would be a better option than the Pedro Martinez who has pitched in the Met rotation thus far. The same Pedro starting 9-10 more games would damage the Mets’ playoff chances dramatically. And if Pedro could get more out of himself if he were only required to exert for one inning, it might be beneficial all around. Dan is a student who writes for MetsGeek every Wednesday. He welcomes feedback at dscotto10@gmail.com. 14 Responses to “Bullpen Fix?”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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I hate to be the contrarian, but it’s going to take a lot to convince me that a few innings of better defense on the right side of the infield is going to make any difference, let alone enough to justify the removal of two good bats from a mediocre lineup. Especially when the bullpen has shown us that no lead is safe, and a 3-run lead can turn into an ugly loss so quickly. Good defense is nice, but so tertiary in the major leagues its almost not even worth mentioning. Tatis has misplayed a couple big time, but so did Gold Glove 5th outfielder Endy Chavez.
As for Pedro to the pen…let’s let him pitch for awhile and see what we’ve got before he start making adjustments. He had an pitch count of 80 last start, and hadn’t played in a month…and pitched pretty well. His velocity and movement are good. His command hasn’t been, but that’s exactly what you’d expect from a guy who’s thrown 49 innings as of August 1st.
As for Kunz, right on, and it already happened, thankfully. He looked good today, jitters aside.
The only option the Mets have, other than pray someone falls into their lap on the waiver wire, is sending down Nick Evan and calling up Val Pascucci for some power off the bench and against lefties. Dudes a patient monster, even as a butcher in the field who K’s a lot. We don’t have ANYONE in that mold — the bench is pretty one-dimensional. Evans is clearly overmatched, and isn’t ready. I like Dan Murphy so much more — he knows when to swing and when not to swing, which is the most important thing a young hitter can understand.
There is still not a single whit of evidence that Pascucci would do anything against real major league pitching.
Not a drop, not a dram, nothing. When you’re in AAA, you’re hitting against the other teams’ Vargases and Figueroas and Armases and Knights.
And as far as people seem to be able to anecdotally tell, he’s a butcher of a fielder… not quite of Marlon Anderson’s depths but surprisingly close.
As far as the bullpen goes, we’re in a Televangelist Telethon situation.
You call up and you pray, basically.
Wagner’s probably hurt, Sanchez is probably not healed, Muniz is a fringe guy… and Heilman and Schoeneweis are just bad.
Just call up what you can call up and hope that everyone figures it out.
Then why play in the minor leagues at all, if you can’t make any predictions about what a player might do?
The guy’s had 67 freaking ABs in the majors. You can’t tell anything from 67 ABs. He’s done nothing but hit in the minors for the last 5 years. And we’re talking about choosing between him and Nick Evans, who is totally lost at the plate right now, and should be playing every day in AAA getting better.
Your comments on Pascucci demonstrate such circular logic, it’s infuriating even talking to you about it. If the guy was 24 you’d be in love with him, demanding him to be called up every day. He’s only 29. He’s got a lot of baseball left in that tank. It’s not like he’s going to become an allstar, but it’s not like he needs to be — it’d be nice to have some pop off the bench, this team has none.
I wouldn’t necessarily call our lineup mediocre. We’re in the top 5 in the league in runs per game, batting average, and OBP, and that’s with playing home games at Shea.
Also, it’s not like Easley is that good of a hitter (.283/.329/.385)that taking him out for defense removes one of our biggest threats in the lineup. Argenis basically provides a bit less pop but significantly better defense, and when the bullpen is as meltdown-prone as it is, anything that can help prevent an inning-extending seeing-eye single is quite useful.
I see your logic here, but if the bullpen has already blown the lead by the 7th or 8th inning, don’t we need Delgado to stay in the lineup to help mount the comeback? Really, I’m only half-kidding here.
Now that Wagner seems to be gone for a while, we all know Duaner is not the answer. If I see Duaner in the 9th, I will personally strangle Jerry. Duaner should have been on the DL already. I’m not sure Kunz can handle the closer role at this point, but with few options, he may be the best/only choice.
And with Pedro on a pitch count and Maine hopefully pitching on the 13th when he’s eligible to come back,you have no idea how long he can go. It would behoove the Mets to have a long man in the bullpen. You can’t get 5 innings ( or less) from a starter and expect the bullpen to pitch all those innings constantly.
Kunz, closer, necessity, mother, invention. Could work out fine, seem to recall Wainwright handling the job all right. In AAA you’re also hitting against the Lirianos and K-Rods and Jobas. Just fyi.
Simons…please don’t confuse him with the facts……lol!
Look, there’s a reason why more and more the hot prospects spend most of their development in AA and only bop into AAA for fine-tuning or a change of pace…
AAA is becoming a dumping ground for cheap insurance plans consisting of players not good enough to make major league rosters but “experienced” enough to soak up a bench position if you’re hit with a DL tornado.
Young guys learn bad habits in AAA because those old goat AAAA tomato cans, hitting and pitching, haven’t been playing the major league game or the game of multi-talented multi-faceted players for years.
The mature full-on players are in the majors, the great players who are still raw are in AA developing.
There’s a lotta straight-ball pitchers and a lotta straight-ball hitters playing against each other in AAA. The numbers are functionally meaningless and everyone’s gotten into bad habits just to “make numbers” in hopes of getting to the next level at the end of the ‘pen or the end of the pine.
It isn’t that hard to explain, really… its only counterintuitive insofaras, like, baseball is all about “well… look at his numbers!”
When you’re hitting against the other team’s version of Brandon Knight, the numbers mean nothing about your ability against a real major league player.
Taking the numbers in context is “facts”.
Saying that a guy is hitting great against nobodies just hanging on for their shot at a half-season of the league minimum as a mop-up guy isn’t “facts”.
It’s wishful thinking at best.
I notice that you like to poop on guys who are brought up, but you rarely bring up a name of someone who should be brought up instead. Why is that exactly?
I’m gonna use your logic now. AA is just a group of unproven rookies playing against other unproven rookies. As a result, those numbers should be ignored? I mean, they have never faced a ML player. Given that a small % of minor league players make the bigs, I’m thinking a good portion of the players in AA are straight-ball pitchers and straight-ball hitters.
You see how silly that is.
Now, mutliply it by 10, and that is how silly your continued bashing of AAA is.
No one is saying the dude is gonna come up and be the next A-Rod. But he should get a shot. If he sucks, no worries, send him down.
Cripes, Nunez got a shot, and he had NO #’s in AAA.
As least Val can hit something.
The argument is much stronger for leaving Delgado in than Easley, but still, Easley is pretty much a guarantee with that line, and has shown clutch power, if such a thing exists. Argenis couldn’t even put up a .700 OPS in the minors — he hasn’t been much of a drop-off thus far, but there’s no way to tell if that’s going to keep up. Don’t get me wrong, I really like the kid, and I don’t mind at all him getting consistent playing time spelling Easley.
My main beef is that I don’t think a few innings of slightly better defense on the right side of the infield are going to make a bit of difference in late-inning losses. Say Argenis comes in for every 8th and 9th. How often is he going to get a chance to make a play that Easley can’t? Every 10 games? 20?
So far in 67 innings in the field, Argenis has 20 assists and 14 putouts. That means that half the time as a defensive replacement, he’s not even going to touch the ball, let alone make a play that Easley couldn’t.
Dear little falls,
How would you judge who is to be brought up then? Back in 2004, Ty Wiggington was a proven league average hitter at 3rd base, whereas David Wright was violating minor league pitchers. Of course, he was mashing AA and AAA straightballers, whereas Wiggy was by no means a slouch in the majors. It seems that trading Wiggy to the bucs while bringing up Wright was the right thing to do in retrospect, does it not?
Wright turned out to become a franchise player in the majors. This is not What we’re asking from Pac-Man. We’re asking him to be better than Marlon Anderson of the .580 OPS.
Now, does a .960 OPS in AAA translate to superstardom in the majors? Not necessarily-just ask David Newhan. However, do you think that facing real major league pitching–and not everybody in the majors is necessarily a major league pitcher–should cut his OPS essentially in half? Also note that Pac-Man is debasing AAA lefties to the tune of a Bonds-like 1.300 OPS. Might that not imply a good situational righthanded bat off the bench, at the very least?…
This was suppose to be a Bullpen Fix thread it turned into something else very quickly. You want my fix bench Heilman should not pitch past the 6th inning he’s been a pretty crappy pitcher all year that is why his era is about 5.00. Don’t let the Show pitch to right handed hitters please. How stupid do you have to be to have him pitching to back to back righties. Kunz until he proves he can’t be trusted should be the setup man for Wagner, and Joe Smith should be the setup man for Kunz. Heilman is a problem the Mets are going to have to contend with in the off season.
Is Turk available?