First place was pretty sweet while it lasted, wasn’t it? After dropping two of three to the Marlins, the Mets (58-50) once again find themselves a half-game out of first; the Fish sit a game behind the Mets. The series loss was their first since losing two of three to the Yankees at the end of June. Next up is a trip to Minute Maid Park for a weekend series against the Houston Astros (50-57). Believe it or not, Houston GM Ed Wade actually fancies the team contenders–he acquired Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins at the deadline–despite the team sitting in fifth place, 14 games behind the Cubs and nine-and-a-half behind the Cardinals for the Wild Card. Befuddling.

The series kicks off with a matchup between the returning Pedro Martinez (3-2, 6.25) and Brandon Backe (6-10, 4.73). Staff aces Johan Santana (9-7, 2.93) and Roy Oswalt (8-8, 4.67) face each other Saturday, followed by what I hope will be John Maine (9-7, 4.13) and Randy Wolf (6-10, 4.79).

Game 1: Brandon Backe, RHP

What’s the Story? Backe missed most of 2007 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2006. He did make it back to the team last September, and pitched okay; he went 3-1 with a 3.77 ERA, but his command was a little off, which certainly isn’t totally unexpected. Thus far this year, he hasn’t looked particularly sharp. But that might be because, outside of the playoffs, he never looked especially sharp. Backe’s velocity is back where it was–hovering around 90–and he’ll throw both four-seamers and two-seamers. He also has a cutter, slider, slow curve, and changeup, though no pitch stands out in particular.

Last Year: Backe didn’t face the Mets last year but is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in five appearances (three starts) against them.

What to Expect: One interesting thing about Backe is that he’s throwing his fastball a lot less than he used to. Last year, he was throwing it almost two-thirds of the time, while he’s under 50% in 2008. Instead, he’s throwing more breaking pitches, preferring to change speeds and eye levels with the slider and curve. It’s not quite working, however. Righties are now hitting him almost as hard as lefties do. Backe’s a guy who likes to change speeds, but he can be hit hard when he gets too much of the plate and leaves the ball up.

Game 2: Roy Oswalt, RHP

What’s the Story? The Astros ace and patron saint of short right-handed pitchers is having a down season. For the first time in his eight-year career, Oswalt finds himself with an ERA below the league average–actually, it’s the first time he’s ever had an ERA less than 25% above the league average, a testament to Oswalt’s career. He had been pitching a little better for a while, but a hip injury seems to have him back off track. When all is well, he’s otherworldly, possessing a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a phenomenal curve, a solid slider, and an average changeup.

Last Year: Oswalt made two starts against the Mets in 2007, both lasting seven innings. In the first, he picked up the win as he held the Mets to three runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out five. The second didn’t go quite as well as the Astros lost 4-1. Oswalt allowed all four runs, giving up nine hits and a walk while striking out four.

What to Expect: Oswalt’s decline this season is a little puzzling. He’s pitching very similarly to how he usually does. Fastballs down in the zone, using the curve as an out pitch, mixing in the slider and change to righties and lefties, respectively. His strikeouts, walks, and groundball rate are all consistent with his career numbers. The big problem has been the homerun rate, which has nearly tripled. My guess is that Oswalt’s met with some bad luck this season, and the homers allowed will return to normal, provided this hip thing isn’t too serious. As it is, expect the Astros to stay a little cautious with Oswalt.

Game 3: Randy Wolf, LHP

What’s the Story? My original scouting report on Wolf can be found here.

This Year: Wolf had one of his better starts of the season against the Mets while still a member of the Padres.

What to Expect: The Astros acquired Wolf from the Pads who were just looking for some salary relief. Wade was happy to oblige, somehow thinking that the Astros still had a chance (they don’t) and Randy Wolf would be a difference-maker for them (he won’t). As I mentioned the last time the Mets faced him, the key for Wolf, as it is for all finesse pitchers, is location. When he’s able to paint the corners with his fastball and break the curve and slider into the strike zone, he’s an effective pitcher. When he’s doing the opposite, he’s extremely hittable.

Overall: There are two big questions concerning the Mets rotation during this series. How will Pedro pitch in his return? And will Maine actually be able to pitch? I think Martinez will pick up the victory as I don’t think the Mets will struggle against Backe. Also, I expect Johan to get the better of a somewhat hobbled Oswalt. I have no faith, however, that the Mets will win on Sunday. Wolf always seems to beat the Mets, and I’m not sure what to expect from the Mets’ starter. Two of three.