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July 30, 2008
Can’t Touch This
In 2005, in the midst of trade rumors surrounding Lastings Milledge, Omar Minaya declared that Milledge had nothing to worry about. He was “untouchable.” That meant other teams could inquire about Mr. Milledge, but the Lastings would not be dealt. Of course, this is a complete farce. If Brian Cashman had called Minaya offering A-Rod and Cano for Milledge then Lastings would be in pinstripes before you could say “Kazmir.” And Minaya did in fact deal Milledge for a package that was much less appealing than others mentioned during past deadline whisperings. What is much more likely is that Omar Minaya uses the “untouchable” tag on his players for two reasons, both of which serve a crucial purpose towards how he negotiates trades. Joel Sherman of the New York post wrote this week that, “The Mets have removed Double-A outfielder Fernando Martinez and left-hander Jon Niese from discussions, and also are said to have made their Binghamton teammates, Robert Parnell, Eddie Kunz and Daniel Murphy, nearly untouchable.” So according to Sherman’s sources, the list of untouchables includes Niese, Parnell, Kunz, Martinez, and Murphy. Incredibly, as of that column’s posting, all of those guys were playing in Binghamton, a city that is now probably being flooded by scouts from rival teams. But should they even waste their money on a trip to Binghamton (apart from the town’s scenic views?) I mean, Minaya has already declared these guys “untouchable.” One reason Omar publicly declares these players untouchable is because they are young and he does not want them to be affected by trade rumors. That is why even a young Jose Reyes was described as such during the Johan Santana negotiations, but a veteran would never need to be told he is off limits. Thus, Omar is able to reassure his players by declaring out in the open, “These guys are not going anywhere.” And for a kid like Martinez, who came to the United States with the Mets as a 16-year old and has only known this organization, that must feel good to hear. However, Omar also is playing a little game theory with his declarations. A tool that can both help and haunt a baseball club is the disseminating of inside information that is supposedly the inner thinking of the front office. For example, if Mets VP Tony Bernazard leaks a negative comment Willie Randolph made about Jose Reyes, there are clear problems. However, if Omar Minaya has Assistant GM John Ricco intentionally leak a rumor that the team wants to stand pat at the trade deadline, it will give other teams the impression that the Mets are desperate (if or if not they are is of little concern) and then force teams to up their offers in trade talks. Most likely, in my estimation, Omar liked reading/hearing that he had declared a set of players untouchable. But why would that make Omar happy? What does that do for the Mets? Well, first off, it gives the impression that these players are just so damned good that Omar could never dream of trading them. But is that the case? Take a look at Robert Parnell. The big right-handed pitcher is a nice prospect, but he had a 4.77 ERA last year in Double-A, and has only slightly improved with a 4.32 ERA this season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio leaves much to be desired, and he’s really only had two good seasons. But when you throw Robert Parnell in a group that includes Fernando Martinez and Jon Niese, you’re most certainly saying something. When general managers make deals, they not only have to worry about how the players will perform, but they have to fret over how the trade will play out with the owners and fan base. By making a deal in which you were able to get an “untouchable” from a guy who stole Johan Santana, well then you can sit back and watch the praise come in. That’s what Omar wants. He wants other GMs to ask about Dan Murphy, and when it seems like Minaya will bite (therefore netting them an untouchable), they’ll blink first and make a move that they otherwise would not want to make. That’s why Twins fans were rejoicing when they got Deolis Guerra and Carlos Gomez from the Mets, two players who it seemed the Mets would never move. Now look at how that deal has turned out for the two clubs. So when Omar has a conference call with Brian Sabean about Randy Winn or Lee Pelekoudas about Raul Ibanez and the two teams are haggling over money or players, expect Omar to possibly “cave in” and even include an untouchable. And while opposing GMs may snicker and applaud themselves for pulling the fleece over ol’ Omar’s head, it may be Mr. Minaya who winds up having the last laugh. 9 Responses to “Can’t Touch This”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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I really don’t think Omar is itching to make the trades people say he is. When was the last time he pulled a trigger on a deadline deal? It was in 2006 when Sanchez was hurt in a freak accident and he needed to get pitching help in its aftermath. I really don’t see Omar giving up too much outside of a guy like Carp.
prospects are like a box of chocolates… you never now what you’re gonna get. so, let’s trade our youth. that’s right, you heard me. no one in our minor leagues should be untouchable at this point. this includes highly touted fernando martinez (aka f-mart). here’s why:
matt peterson. justin huber. pat strange. grant roberts. okay, maybe this list isn’t fair. how about these names:
alex escobar. alex ochoa. paul wilson. bill pulsipher. ed yarnall. jay payton. terrence long.
all former top prospects. all supposedly untouchable at one point. i don’t see any superstars there. i know what you are going to say. “well, what about wright, reyes and pelfrey? what about kazmir or… or… umm…” yeah, that’s about it. and i’d say the verdict is still out there for pelfrey. he needs to have a couple of solid seasons under his belt to be on the same level as wright, reyes or kazmir. yes, there are the occasional heilmans and dotels that are solid. but i wouldn’t classify them as superstars.
now, if f-mart turns out to be an escobar or even a jay payton, none of us would feel bad about trading him away. if jon niese turns out to be a grant roberts or a paul wilson, none of us would be crying over it. of course, if any of us can figure out who are the duds and who are the david wrights and scott kazmirs, that person will be a billionaire.
so let’s make some smart trades. mets fans weren’t whining that kazmir got traded away. it was because he got traded away for victor zambrano. if carlos gomez, phil humber or kevin mulvey turn out to be great, who cares? as long as johan santana is still johan santana, i’m happy! if ryan church can come back healthy and leads the mets to several post-seasons, i can handle lastings milledge going to the all-star game for the next several years. so please, mets front office, i don’t mind if you trade away our youth. but it better be for someone good.
Thats the point there isnt anyone good Randy Winn and Ibanez are hardly worth it as they are marginal upgrades to players such as Tatis and Chavez maybe even a downgrade if you are talking about defense.
ventilate…obviously prospects are a crapshoot. but that does not mean you should just trade them all away. it is proven time and again that the surest route to sustained success is through a retention of home-grown players. sure, you point out the few Mets prospects who have panned out…but can you tell me where we’d be right now if Cleveland had taken Jose Reyes instead of Alex Escobar? obviously, there is always a time and place for trading prospects… ie. Johan. however, that does not suggest that an organizational philosophy should be “hey let’s trade all our prospects because only a few will turn out.” that is a recipe for disaster. how many teams succeed without home-grown talent? without Reyes and Wright, this team would be an absolute joke…and the fact that they’re locked up for several years at palatable salaries makes them that much more valuable.
My feeling is to always stand pat until:
A: you come across a Santana-like trade in which you are a clear winner or…
B: You come across a trade that would so obviously help both sides that it has the effect of a steal for both teams.
Otherwise, build from within. It’s not all about superstars and busts. It’s also about cost-effective production from all of your position players. Jacobs, for example, would have made a fine catcher–although his hideous O.B.P. might prevent him from being a star even in that position, let alone 1B, where he has no business. Omar was wise to deal Jacobs along with Petit in ‘05, when he hit for an entirely unsustainable 175 OPS+ in 100 AB, for Carlos Delgado, particularly since the Mets at the time were starting Doug Mientkiewicz on a regular basis. But unless you can get a trade that’s so obviously in your favor, you would have been better off keeping Jacobs as a young, low cost, long term, solid and productive catcher (assuming he really could field the position. I’m not sure if he ever could have). Similarly, Keppinger–who was not so much traded as given away–would have made a fine–though not superstar–2nd baseman for years at no real cost.
We don’t yet know what the real return on the Lastings Milledge deal is going to be. But it is still unlikely in my eyes that Milldge will be any worse than a league average right fielder, which is what he was last year for the Mets, albeit in limited time and without much exposure to left-handed pitching. That’s 6 years of having 2B, Catcher, and RF manned effectively at little cost. You can’t keep trading that for a short term stud at one position. Omar should thank his lucky stars for Delgado’s resurgence.
pardon me…that’s *right* handed pitching for Milledge.
Speaking of which, does Murphy still exhibit reverse splits?
thanks nails, i respect your response. please allow me rephrase and clarify my point: let’s NOT be afraid to trade our youth.
of course i’d love to have a mostly “home-grown” ball club, but at this day and age it’s almost impossible. let’s not forget some past key veteran players obtained by trading young players (gary carter, ray knight, ojeda, viola, piazza, leiter).
throughout the years on many mets forums or WFAN, i’ve read/heard a lot of “don’t trade player X or Y.” this year, it’s f-mart/niese. last year, milledge/humber. and so on and so on. but as you also admitted:
isn’t that time now? isn’t it time we put some space between ourselves and rest of the division? are we so confident that the phillies and marlins will sit on their hands and not make a move to improve their roster? are you, as a mets fan, so confident that this team can get to the playoffs and win it all… as is?
looking at our team and then looking at the competition, i’m going to be honest and say i’m not that confident. we have delgado and castillo/easley in the IF. with apologies to tatis, i still feel we have a hole in LF. out of all the starters, santana is the only sure thing. maine and ollie are inconsisent (though improving). pelfrey is growing, but not there yet. pedro is a question mark and so is the bullpen.
so, are we mets fans willing to wait until next year? if so, then let’s hold on to our young players. if not, then maybe no one should be considered untouchable.
ventilate, those are fair points all…i just don’t see that big difference-maker out there that the mets can acquire. Johan was a very special case…picking up someone like him is worth any amount of prospects due to his age and status. plus, the trade was contingent upon signing him to an extension. trading several prospects at this point for someone in their walk year? i hate trades like that.
am i willing to wait for next year rather than trade f-mart for a rental player? absolutely, positively. you’re right, tatis will probably not hold up. the bullpen is shaky (just like everyone else’s). there isn’t a no-brainer trade out there. i don’t mean in the sense of an imbalanced trade, but there is no one player out there who the Mets must obviously get and they will become the NL front-runners. i just don’t see it. unless someone previously unspoken becomes available, then sure i’m fine trading any prospect. but nobody who’s been bandied about so far.
Why trade young talent when you can get these guys in the off season anyways, C.C., Ben Sheets, Texiera etc. get them doesn’t cost you any of your proven prospects, just a first rounder and since the Mets will probably be in or near the playoffs, that draft pick is going to be around 25th or so. Ill take C.C. or Ben Sheets for a 25th pick in the first round.