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July 29, 2008
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Is Raul Ibanez a Worthy Trade Target?
Scribbled by: Chris McCown @ 2:30 am | Filed under: Articles

I have to admit, my gut reaction to the question at hand was no. Obviously we don’t get to see Raul Ibanez play a lot, as he does the bulk of his work on the West Coast and in the other league. I generally think of him as a good all-around guy who brings a lot to the table but not enough of any one thing to bring the Mets a significant upgrade. Ibanez has challenged a lot of perceptions about typical aging patterns by busting out in his 30s, and I will not use the “s” word, but I’m sure he’s a convenient target for those theorists. A career .284/.345/.469 line in the minors will do that for you, particularly when his stop in Triple-A Tacoma included only a .430 slugging percentage.

I didn’t really start following other teams closely until about 2001, which was right when the 29-year-old Ibanez had his first really good offensive season. In Baseball Prospectus 2001, speaking of Ibanez’s odds in that upcoming season, the player comment stated: “Cattle mutilation. Crop circles. Spontaneous human combustion. Watching golf on television. Add Piniella’s fascination with Ibanez to the list of unexplained mysteries.” The book projected him at just .247/.313/.380 off the Royals bench. Instead he hit .280/.353/.495 in 279 at-bats. Ever since the Royals used that as a jumping point to give him a starting job, Ibanez hasn’t stopped hitting. From 2002-2007, he’s done the following:

  1. Had an OPS+ of 110 or higher in 6 of the 7 seasons, with the low point being 103 in 2003.
  2. Hit over .280 every year.
  3. Hit over 30 doubles every year.
  4. Never had an OBP under .345 or over .355

    5. There’s a guy you can set your wrist-watch to. He’s been a very good player who has toiled in relative obscurity over the years, never playing for a team with more than 91 wins, and only sniffing the playoffs with the pre-Ichiro Mariners, where he was still mostly a bench player.

    Ibanez is a natural left fielder, which slots in well with the Mets. He’s not an iron glove, though he is getting a little up there in years at 36. While he’s a left-handed hitter and would tilt the Mets lineup that way with Delgado and (hopefully) Church, one of them could bat second and Beltran could split the other two, and Ibanez has a respectable .873 OPS against lefthanders this year in 114 at-bats (as compared to Delgado at .642).

    The main arguments against acquiring Ibanez are prospect cost and disrupting the rhythm of a team that is firing on all cylinders of late. Plenty of scribes have already said that Omar Minaya won’t be parting with the cream of the crop: Fernando Martinez, Jon Niese, Eddie Kunz, and Bobby Parnell probably won’t be available at the deadline. I agree with this stance, and would add Wilmer Flores to the list, but obviously that is no help in acquiring Ibanez. Brant Rustich could be a possibility, but he’s been far from pretty down with the Sand Gnats. Someone like Greg Veloz could also be an option, as well as Mike Carp (who has cooled down a bit) and Danny Murphy. Personally, I think acquiring Ibanez would be a great move for the Mets, particularly because they are in a tight division race and would be upgrading a position that’s compiled a 68 OPS+ for them this year, but about the furthest I’d be willing to go is two of those guys. The Mariners could definitely use some replenishing after the disastrous Erik Bedard trade though, so they may be looking for a bigger package.

    As far as disrupting the current torrid pace the Mets are on, I think Ibanez would probably only add to it. While it would get Fernando Tatis and his hot bat out of the lineup more often, they could simply platoon the two in left if the latter keeps hitting. This would also possibly add a new facet to the Mets: a pinch-hitter worth using.

    I had planned to write a big trade deadline piece before everyone started swapping, but with Xavier Nady and Casey Blake already gone, it almost completely boils down to Ibanez. Randy Winn is not a significant upgrade on what we have and is owed $8+ million in 2009, you have as much a chance of seeing Adam Dunn in a Mets uniform as you do Barry Bonds (or me), and you can file Jason Bay, Brian Giles, and Matt Holliday under “way too expensive”. The only other positions that the Mets have a real need to fix up are positions where we’re waiting on injuries (Church, Castillo, Pedro Martinez) or positions where the Mets have an in-house solution even if they refuse to recognize it (Ramon Castro). The bullpen will be fine in the long run, the injuries will run their course and Omar will almost assuredly let them, Castro will continue to get two starts a week. Raul Ibanez is the player that could put the Mets over the top, and get himself into the spotlight for the first time. He’s the one player on the market I’d chase after.

    Chris can't help you play better than Tiny Iota. That guy was great. He is currently a Creative Writing student at the University Of Houston, and also writes at Future Considerations. Comments and criticisms can be sent to itsinhowyouinflect@gmail.com.

12 Responses to “Is Raul Ibanez a Worthy Trade Target?”

  1. Comment posted by Tim in LA on July 29, 2008 at 3:37 am (#785233)

    It’s definitely just a matter of what you’d have to give up. I’d do it for pretty much two of anyone other than F!, W!, Neise, Kunz, or Parnell. Maybe Parnell straight up. Maybe Murphy or Carp and Rustich. I don’t have a lot of faith in the Mets mid-level prospects…I just hope the Mariners do.

    But you’re right, Ibanez is the only upgrade available, realistically. If he can’t be had for a B-prospect or two, then stand pat. I hate trading up at this time of year.

  2. Comment posted by President of the Mike Pelfrey Fan Club on July 29, 2008 at 4:51 am (#785234)

    We need a quality middle reliever before a corner OF.

  3. Comment posted by Jessica on July 29, 2008 at 7:09 am (#785237)

    I agree with much of what you’ve said, except for this:

    He’s not an iron glove

    http://www.lookoutlanding.com/
    Scroll down to where it says “Raul Ibanez Takes Pride In His Defense” (it’s a little box on the left side of the page), and watch the GIFs. His defense is a significant concern, especially given the flyball tendencies of 80% of our rotation.

  4. Comment posted by swoboda on July 29, 2008 at 8:20 am (#785244)

    G AB OFF DEF Tot
    ibanez SEA LF 95 370 1.9 -8.3 -6.4

    These are Dials numbers from this year. He is okay on offense, but brutal on D. Pass

  5. Comment posted by NYNarwhal on July 29, 2008 at 11:11 am (#785416)

    I still don’t understand why Eddie Kunz is “untouchable”. I have nothing against him, but reliever’s are easy to replace and I don’t even feel he’s “that” close to being a dominant major league pitcher; he’s doing a lot better lately but he’s still showing poor control. And I’d trade one of Murphy/Carp/Evans since it seems like at best they can only play two positions (OF and 1b).

    They really just needed another offensive-minded OF bat, even if its someone who can only platoon. Someone along the lines of Juan Rivera. Counting on Fernando Martinez to play a corner, even when Church gets back, is just wayyyy to risky.

  6. Comment posted by yfern328 on July 29, 2008 at 12:55 pm (#785554)

    I totally agree with the chemistry factor. I feel the media is giving Tatis too little credit. This guy plays hard and hits. I like him as a right-handed bat personally over Ibanez. Also, I feel the bullpen is not fine for the long run. As long as guys like Muniz and Collazo are being shuttled between the minors and the majors, I feel we need one more arm. The arm I would target is Chad Bradford. He was great with the Mets, and I’m sure it would not cost us our untouchables. If we do that I feel very confident with the mets. Also let Easley play, not Castillo…

    P.S. has anyone seen Brad Holt? The guy is an absolute beast. He will be at shea in a year if he keeps up what he’s doing at higher levels in the minors coupled with the mets loving to promote guys.

  7. Comment posted by Hubie on July 29, 2008 at 1:14 pm (#785561)

    His defense is a significant concern, especially given the flyball tendencies of 80% of our rotation.

    Can he be any worse than Marlon, Tatis or Evans? I doubt it.

  8. Comment posted by Hubie on July 29, 2008 at 1:21 pm (#785565)

    I would target is Chad Bradford.

    I like Bradford but do we need another side armer. I’d prefer someone who is more of a strikeout pitcher.

  9. Comment posted by argonbunnies on July 29, 2008 at 3:30 pm (#785710)

    I’m tempted to hold onto Carp, Evans and Murphy in the hopes that one of the three might be our first baseman next year (but who knows which one).

    If Marlon Anderson gets hot, we have no need for Ibanez. If Marlon continues to be useless, Ibanez would be a definite upgrade… dumping a good clubhouse guy during a stretch drive can be tricky, though.

  10. Comment posted by FMARTin09 on July 29, 2008 at 3:59 pm (#785783)

    Jerry Manuel said Aaron Heilman would have pitched the eighth, rather than Joe Smith and Scott Schoeneweis, who combined to allow five runs. But Heilman was unavailable after tossing three innings Saturday. (By the way, we noted before the game that Manuel did tell Heilman he’s now stretched out to be a starter.

  11. Comment posted by Chris McCown on July 29, 2008 at 4:14 pm (#785813)

    FWIW to his detractors on defense, I’ll admit that I haven’t been watching game film of him or anything, but I wouldn’t take any one set of numbers or small sample size of his “abilities” as gospel. For instance, Hardball Times RZR has him as 7th of 14 qualifying left fielders this year, and while I definitely think he’s closer to the middle than the top, I was mainly trying to get at him not being a Manny-esque level of bad.

    And I don’t buy the bullpen dilemma. Last night was bad, yes, but Joe Smith gave up a flyout double and a single up the middle. Not exactly hard liners all over the place. And everyone knows that there’s no reason to force Schoeneweis to pitch to right-handers. Would it be nice to have a more dominant pen? Certainly. Is it that much of an upgrade? I don’t think so.

  12. Comment posted by Dave in Spain on July 29, 2008 at 5:21 pm (#785958)

    P.S. has anyone seen Brad Holt? The guy is an absolute beast. He will be at shea in a year if he keeps up what he’s doing at higher levels in the minors coupled with the mets loving to promote guys.

    I haven´t seen Holt, but I´ve read that his fastball is dominant, but he really needs to make his secondary pitches more consistent to have success at the upper levels. He can dominate lower hitters with his FB, but he needs to improve a second and third pitch.

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