After the Mets took (57-48) two of three from the Cardinals to maintain their one-game lead over the Phillies, it’s easy to forget that the Florida Marlins (55-50) are sitting in third place, a mere two games out of first. It’s certainly understandable, however. The Marlins were never expected to contend for the division crown, and they don’t really look like contenders. Both their team ERA and on-base average rank fourth from the bottom of the league, they play poor defense, and their run differential is worse than that of any NL East team save Washington. Honestly, it appears that they’ve been playing over their head. However, these things don’t reduce the importance of this series, and the Mets need to approach it as they would a series in Philadelphia.

John Maine (9-7, 4.20) opposes Ricky Nolasco (10-6, 3.99) in Monday’s opener. Tuesday will be a battle of enigmatic left-handers as Oliver Perez (6-6, 4.15) takes on Scott Olsen (6-5, 4.07), while Mike Pelfrey (9-6, 3.67) and Josh Johnson (0-0, 3.71) duel in the finale.

Game 1: Ricky Nolasco, RHP

What’s the Story? Nolasco’s original scouting report can be found here.

This Year: While the Marlins won his May 26th start against the Mets, Nolasco wasn’t particularly sharp. He gave up nine hits and a pair of walks over five innings and was lucky only three batters crossed home plate. Two of those were Jose Reyes who hit a pair of solo homeruns.

What to Expect: The Marlins have gotten some surprisingly effective work from Nolasco this season, whose succeeded by throwing strikes and doing what he can to keep batters off balance by mixing speeds. When he hits his spots with his fastball, he’ll be able to keep hitters guessing all day long. If not, he can be hit pretty hard. Despite a sinking fastball and a splitter, Nolasco allows a lot of flies, which has made him prone to the homerun, particularly to lefties, who’ve hit 16 of the 18 homers he’s allowed. With Carlos Delgado really swinging the bat well, his will be a key at-bat each time through the lineup.

Game 2: Scott Olsen, LHP

What’s the Story? Olsen’s original scouting report can be found here.

This Year: Olsen had a so-so outing against the Mets on May 28th. He lasted just five innings—which would later haunt the Marlins as the game went 12—and allowed four runs on six hits. Of those six hits, four went for extra bases, including homeruns to Luis Castillo and Jose Reyes. He also walked two and struck out three.

What to Expect: As I mentioned the last time, I keep expecting the bottom to fall out on Olsen’s season. He’s His strikeout rate has taken a nosedive and he’s giving too many homeruns despite playing in a pretty good pitcher’s park. It’s difficult to see how he’s pitched significantly better than he did last year. He has regressed slightly, but it hasn’t been to the extent I expected, largely thanks to a walk rate that’s gotten a little better as he’s gone along. Still, he’s been incredibly lucky this year and isn’t the pitcher the Marlins were hopeful he’d become.

Game 3: Josh Johnson, RHP

What’s the Story? As a 22-year-old rookie in 2006, Johnson nearly led the NL in ERA. A late injury and a bad outing against the Phillies cost him that opportunity, but Johnson was looking like one of the game’s more talented young starters and the ace of a promising Florida staff. Unfortunately, 2007 was almost entirely lost to him; he suffered elbow injuries all season long before undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. He returned on July 11th, just 11 months after the operation. He’s looked pretty solid so far, flashing his low-to-mid-90s fastball, a very good slider, and a so-so changeup.

This Year: Johnson didn’t make a start against the Mets last season. Over his career, however, he’s thrown 17 innings against them without giving up an earned run.

What to Expect: Johnson offers little in the way of surprises. He’ll attack hitters with sinking fastballs low in the zone, using the slider late in the count against righties, the change against lefties. At his best, he’ll throw strikes, keep the ball on the ground, and get the occasional strikeout against righties. However, since the change isn’t nearly as effective as the slider, he’s had some problems getting lefties out over the course of his career, though he has been able to limit their power numbers, thanks to the fastball.

Overall: Once again, I’m picking the Mets to take two of three, specifically the first two. They’ve had some success against both pitchers this year, and neither one particularly impresses me. Meanwhile, Maine is coming off a solid outing and Perez has been lights out this year. Pelfrey’s been outstanding lately also—he’s allowed just three walks over his past five starts—but Josh Johnson seems destined to plague the Mets, so I’ll say the Fish salvage the final game in a pitcher’s duel.