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July 17, 2008
   
Interview: Alex Carver

After interviewing Paul Hagen concerning the Phillies a couple weeks ago, we wanted to turn to the other team ahead of the Mets in the division race, the surprising Florida Marlins. To help us out, we turned to Marlins blogger Alex Carver, who writes about the team for Marlins Today, part of the Most Valuable Network. Alex was nice enough to give us his take on the present and future of the franchise.

What do you make of the Marlins’ season? Are you excited about this team? Or is it hard to get excited about them because you can’t trust the front office not to dynamite the team again? Or is it hard to get excited about this team simply because you think it’s a fluke?

Any time your team has a winning record and is less than two games outof first going into the All-Star break, it’s easy to get excited. The Marlins’ young arms keep getting healthier and healthier (Josh Johnson just returned way ahead of schedule, Anibal Sanchez is throwing rehab starts and will return later this month). By August, the Marlins will have six quality arms. Scott Olsen, who is having a career year, Ricky Nolasco, who is pitching out of his mind, Andrew Miller, who has had more ups than downs, Johnson, who reached 97 miles-per-hour in his first start back, Chris Volstad, the 21-year-old studly prospect and Sanchez. A good problem to have. Add to that the fact that the Marlins are sixth in the league in runs scored and the fact that the only other two years they have ever had at least 50 wins at the break were 1997 and 2003 and getting excited is turning into getting ecstatic.

Do you think the Marlins will be buyers during the next three weeks in an attempt to make a run at the playoffs? Who do you think they’d target, and what expendable parts do you think they would give up?

Most definitely buyers. If you asked me this question two weeks ago, I would’ve said we would be in the market for a starting pitcher. But because Josh Johnson is back and Anibal Sanchez will be back shortly, the top priority will be a catcher, possibly of the veteran variety. An idea I mulled over a few weeks ago was Minnesota’s Mark Redmond. With Joe Mauer starting almost every day and Ryan Jorgensen on call in the minors, the Marlins could probably re-acquire Redmond for a not-so-hefty price and platoon him with recent call-up John Baker. Granted, he
played in the PCL, a pure hitter’s league, but Redmond was OPSing at .897 against right-handed pitching prior to his call-up, and Redmond hits lefties at a .329 clip. Another possibility is Paul Lo Duca, one of GM Larry Beinfest’s all-time favorite players. Because the Nationals will undoubtedly be looking to get younger and because Lo Duca is a free agent after this season, he probably won’t cost much either. As for expendable pieces, the biggest name the Marlins will shop is Mike Jacobs, who has been average at best offensively and simply egregious defensively. Other names that will probably be available include Robert Andino, Graham Taylor, and Matt Lindstrom.

Do you think the Marlins can ever be a successful franchise under Jeffrey Loria? Does he even care about winning? Now that there are plans for a stadium, will the Marlins finally expand their payroll to beyond A-Rod’s annual salary?

Loria has promised us that when the new stadium opens, the payroll will increase. I believe him. In my eyes, the Hanley signing was a sign that this franchise is ready to turn the corner. Of course, they’re not going to get around it in a day but this franchise is definitely on it’s way out of the gutter.

The Marlins gave a contract extension to Hanley Ramirez. First, does this signal that the Marlins actually might keep an elite player instead of trading him? And second, are there any other players (Dan Uggla? Jeremy Hermida?) that you could see them extending?

Signing the core of the franchise two years before we relocate definitely says to me that Hanley is here to stay. That said, the only other player on the current 25-man roster that I see us possibly giving a long-term deal to is Dan Uggla. As for Hermida, because of his injury and under-performance issues, the Marlins will likely look to sell as high as they can on him. If he doesn’t go off in the second half, he could be put on the market as early as this offseason.

Josh Johnson pitched the other night. What, if anything, do you expect from him and Anibal Sanchez during the second half of the season?

If they stay healthy, I foresee both of them being key contributors during the second half and hopefully during our playoff run. For Johnson, I’ll be looking for an ERA in the 3s with 70+ strikeouts. With some competition around for his rotation spot, I expect similar numbers out of Sanchez.

What are your thoughts on the Carlos Delgado/Mike Jacobs trade? And although he’s struggling now, what’s the status of Gaby Hernandez? Does he have a big league future?

What was there not to like about that move? It was the perfect trade for a rebuilding team. We got rid of an aging, steadily declining, injury prone Delgado and most of his massive contract and got a guy who once won an award for being the best prospect in the Mets’ system along with two other type Bs. Over the past two years, Jacobs and Delgado have theoretically been the same player, only Jake is eight years younger. Unfortunately, we traded Yusmeiro Petit for Jorge Julio, one of the biggest failures in Marlins history, but If Grant Psomas ever lives up to his potential, we’ll have won that much more.

Gaby Hernandez had a good spring campaign but since then, he’s struggled mightily. After getting mashed to the tune of a 7.24 ERA in Triple-A, he was recently sent down to Double-A Carolina. He’s gotten off to a much better start there but as for his big league future, he’s still at least two years out.

What did you think about the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis trade, and how do you feel about it now?

At first, I thought this was just another case of the Marlins selling off their young stars but it’s turning out to be another example of how great our scouting department really is. Andrew Miller has already shown flashes of brilliance at the major league level and after an impressive spring, Cameron Maybin is spending his days OPSing .818 in Double-A and could be ready as early as next season. Meanwhile, Dontrelle Willis is on the disabled list in Single-A and Miguel Cabrera, although he’s started to pick it up of late, still had his worst first half since his rookie year in 2003. In hindsight, selling high on Cabrera was the right move. Selling higher on Willis would’ve been better but you can’t have your cake and eat it too.

The Marlins seem to have an endless parade of second-tier pitching prospects: VandenHurk, Tucker, Volstad, Badenhop, etc. Who do you like the best among the Marlins’ young pitchers going forward? Also, do you think either Ricky Nolasco or Scott Olsen can build upon their
strong first halves this year?

Chris Volstad probably has the brightest future ahead of him out of the entire system. In his first start last week, he went 8.2 innings, nearly ending the longest complete game drought in major league history. He’s 21 years old. He also won in his first ever appearance a couple days earlier which made him the first rookie to ever win in a relief appearance and a start since Doug Waechter did it in 2003. Projected as the ace of this staff come 2010, this kid’s an amazing talent.

Ricky Nolasco is having a spectacular year and always had the make-up to pitch like this but injuries held him back. If he can stay off the DL, I don’t see any reason why he can’t win 15-20 games this year. Olsen is the same way only his problem was his maturity, not his physical well being. In less than a year, it seems as though he’s aged 10, both on the mound and off. Aside from his record, the rest of his numbers are very similar to Nolasco’s. The only reason he doesn’t have the wins to show for it is because he has found run support hard to come by. They will both be key factors in deciding how far the Marlins go this season.

Finally, what’s the status of the Marlins’ new stadium. I know there are plans, but has it been confirmed that it’s going to be built. The location is supposed to be on the site of the old Orange Bowl, which a lot of people have complained about. Is that a bad location?

Much to the chagrin of Norman Braman, a local attorney who evidently hates baseball and is filing some sort of lawsuit, the stadium is still a go to be built in 2010 and played in in 2011. The good thing about the current stadium is that it’s located in the middle of Miami/Dade and Broward Counties. The new location is very much out of the way of Broward. Those you hear complaining are people like me who live in Broward but people in Miami/Dade couldn’t be happier. Is it a bad location? No. Is it inconvenient to some like myself? Yes. But you can’t please everyone. The important thing is that baseball is staying in South Florida.

Thanks, Alex.


Aaron Dorman is the biggest Mets fan in all of Delmar NY. His all-time favorite players are Mike Piazza, Jose Reyes, and Glendon Rusch. As of Spring 2008, he is an English/Communications double major at Goucher College in Baltimore, and can be reached at metfanaaron2001@yahoo.com.

3 Responses to “Interview: Alex Carver”

  1. Comment posted by President of the Mike Pelfrey Fan Club on July 17, 2008 at 3:40 am (#767523)

    Am I the only guy who thinks this Alex Carver dude is smoking the happy crack pipe about the Marlins several respects? To wit:

    1.) Jacobs has not been as good as Delgado has been since the trade. Jacobs has been nowhere near Delgado in terms of WPA/LI, Win Shares or RZR over the past 3 seasons.

    I mean, I am happy the Marlins dumped Delgado’s contract as they obviously couldn’t afford to take it on, but c’mon, I have yet to see them acquire anything that has matched or exceeded Delgado’s worth to their MLB team until Grant Psomas or Gabys Hernadnez develop into legitimate ML players or at least generate decent value to help match what they lost. Maybe they can trade Jacobs to get something of value for them down the road, but so far, I don’t think they received anything substantive from that trade that exceeds what they gave in Delgado outside of a dollar and a dream.

    2.) Andrew Miller is a mess. Not only has he performed poorly in 33 starts since last season (5.65 ERA) but also, as this article from Driveline Mechanics contends, he has major issues with poor mechanics and a limited fastball/slider repertoire that are the product of his being rushed to the majors:
    http://drivelinemechanics.com/2008/05/04/pitcher-analysis-andrew-miller/

    3.) Olsen has been rather lucky, His newfound success seems to have come from his newfound reliance on an improved changeup, which he is throwing more often in place of the fastball. But does this last? Although Olsen’s K/9 and GB% have declined this season from 2007 he still sports the best of ERA of his career (3.77) because of his .242 BABIP, which happens to be 4th lowest in the league this season. Too bad his decent 19.8 LD% isn’t low enough to sustain that number at the rate he is pitching.

    On top of this, it should also be noted that Olsen “physical well-being” has diminished to the point that he is mostly a finesse pitcher. His fastball has decreased in velocity from 90.1 mph to a mediocre 87.0 this season while his slider has dipped from 82.4 mph to 79.6 mph. The kid is only 24-25 and this is drastic drop is already happening? To be sure “in less than a year”, it does seem as if “aged 10 years”. Maybe he’s figured out that velocity is overrated and has sacrificed power for control, but wouldn’t such a change indicate a better SO/BB this year (1.49) from last season (1.56) if that were the case?

    4.) Does he really expect Josh Johnson to produce “an ERA in the 3s with 70+ strikeouts“ only eleven months after having undergone Tommy John ligament-replacement surgery? Wow. According to his Major League career K/9 total of 7.72 that would mean that he’d have to pitch around 80 innings for this to happen. Mind you that the most innings Johnson pitched in one season during professional career was 157.1 IP and that was the 2006 season that his elbow into the ground to begin with. With 67 games and about 13-14 more starts to go he now has to meet half of his 2006 total for Alex Carver‘s projection to come through.How does he expect Annibal Sanchez to come out and produce “the same” total? Sanchez’s career Major League K/9 total is 4.20. That’s even more unlikely for Sanchez than it is Johnson. Not only this, would the Marlins really want to push Sanchez that hard considering that the 114.1 innings he pitched in 17 games lead to his tearing his labrum?

    5.) If what this guy says about the Marlins organizational plans for Johnson and Sanchez are true then what the fuck are the Marlins doing there with their young pitching? These guys won’t last long like this. They rushing kids through with little time in the minors to pitch at rates that would have them accumulating over 200 innings a season.

  2. Comment posted by pants on July 17, 2008 at 9:01 am (#767540)

    ^^ether^^

  3. Comment posted by Pat Andriola on July 17, 2008 at 10:55 am (#767707)

    Yeah, I proposed the Jacobs/Delgado question and was shocked by his surprise. Jacobs sure does have power, but a .280 OBP is just patheticly bad.

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