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July 10, 2008
Plan B
The Mets play “Takin’ Care of Business” after every home win, but they haven’t done a better job living up to their song than they did in Philly over the past weekend. This was one of the better series I’ve watched in a long time, and it was wonderful to see them scratch out three straight road victories. Really great stuff, and, with that, the Mets are serious players in the NL East again. With that said, I think there is a compelling case to be made for the Mets to adopt a seller’s posture at the trade deadline. I will lay it out here. 1. The Mets are flawed presently and lack the chips to repair said flaws. A few days ago, I went over a bunch of Mets stuff, discussing the Met offense in detail. Right now, the Mets get playoff-caliber production from their big three, and very little from anywhere else. The Met lineup right now is the big three, the red-hot Damion Easley, Brian Schneider, and three other players who should not be starting. That’s not a playoff lineup. As someone who has seen the effects of multiple concussions, Ryan Church’s recurring symptoms worry me greatly. But from a strictly analytical standpoint, we have to account for the possibility that Church will not be back for any extended period of time this year. That’s yet another hole in the lineup, left to be filled by Fernando Tatis, Endy Chavez, Marlon Anderson and the like. The pitching? Johan Santana has been good, but other than that, Maine’s had trouble going deep into games, Oliver Perez has been erratic, two good starts notwithstanding (though I did just pick up Olly in fantasy), Pedro is still scuffling, and Mike Pelfrey’s peripherals don’t quite match his performance. The starting pitching, over the past couple of weeks, looks better than it had been, but I’m not going to jump to any conclusions yet. All of this comes to a head when you look at the Mets farm system. It’s not quite as bad as the press clippings, I think (see: Pat’s article from today), but there’s a severe dearth of tradable talent in there. The Mets cashed in their chips this offseason and, while a good draft has restocked things a bit, those aren’t tradable parts. 2. The wild card was probably just pushed out of reach. I never like to put teams into the playoffs so prematurely, but the twin moves by the Cubs and Brewers seem to have locked down the wild card. The Cubs looked pretty certain to make it into the playoffs before adding Rich Harden. And CC Sabathia is an excellent addition for the Brewers, who now look like a World Series contender. At this point, it’s looking very much like “Division or Bust” for the Mets. None of the Phillies, Marlins, and Braves are particularly strong, but this chart is instructive: NL East Run Differentials (as of 7/8, 5:30 PM) Phillies: +98 By run differential, the Phils are clearly the best of the bunch. This can be turned around, but realize that the Phillies have put up their season without standard levels of performance from Ryan Howard (.226/.317/.484) and, less dramatically, Jimmy Rollins (whose .272/.337/.437 line bears an uncanny resemblance to his 2004 season). As satisfying as winning three of four in Philly was, the odds are clearly against the Mets winning the division. And with the wild card out of reach, it’s worth considering that… 3. Parity creates sellers’ markets. As has been the norm over the second half of the Selig Era, significantly more than half the league is legitimately competing in July. For better or worse, all but seven teams are fewer than ten games out of a playoff berth. The Mets, of course, are one of these 23 teams. With their lack of a farm system, the Mets really can’t compete with other teams looking to make additions around the deadline. There are, however, opportunities for exploiting the market. A dearth of supply and a surplus of demand means that the price of particular parts (say, 2-month rental starting pitchers) goes up. 4. The Mets’ secondary pieces, while not enough in their own hands, could be extremely useful to some other contenders who have chips to trade. The Mets have five players who may not be in their long term plans but could be very useful to someone looking to make a push for the playoffs.
I picked these five guys because none of them are really in the Mets’ plans for next year. We’re not talking about a full-fledged rebuilding project. It’s more a chance to bring in some young talent to fill in some holes for next year. The Mets will have a bunch of open spots next year, and it makes sense to bring in options to fill them. If cashing out of 2008 sets you up for 2009 and beyond, it’s definitely worth considering. I wouldn’t say that the Mets are doomed; hell, they might make the playoffs as they are now. Baseball Prospectus has them at 37.5%; CoolStandings.com has them at 23.1%, neither of which is terribly outside the realm of possibility. I’m certainly not waiving any white flags here. But I think that I would be quick to pull the plug on this season, just based on a look around the NL. While things are good, it’s best to try to ride it; New York sports fans saw one team ride a hot streak to a world championship already in 2008, and this Met team could catch fire at some point. But if the Mets keep hovering around .500 for the next few weeks, I think that moving some parts is sound strategy. They can get a head start on building the next Met championship team then. Better that than continuing to try to claw their way into a race that they are not well-positioned to win. Dan is a student who writes for MetsGeek every Wednesday. He welcomes feedback at dscotto10@gmail.com. 13 Responses to “Plan B”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. metz suck »» |
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I love the logic of your premise…
However, I’m holding out hope that the Mets can exploit this illusory hot streak for Delgado and fleece some AL team looking for “one more bat” to stick in their DH slot.
Ditto for Show… there’s no way this guy would have such good numbers this season if he wasn’t handled so incredibly gingerly.
Alou and Pedro, though, I think are lost causes… we don’t have anything to fuel a delusion with those guys… they look like lost causes and that’s what they are.
Ollie Perez’s value, of course, is deeply deeply cut into by the guarantee that he’d only be a rental, per his representation… combine Representation from Hell WITH Don’t Know What You’re Getting and… yeah.
I don’t see getting value for Ollie so you might as well hang onto him.
Wagner… I don’t know if there’s anyone on this team with a mindset to close right now and I wouldn’t wanna go around messing with anyone’s development just to unload Billy. Might as well hang on.
But Delgado and Schoeneweis, hell yeah. Heilman too… he’s got to be the whiniest only-okay player in the game. Someone gives you value for someone who’s been just so much… trouble… you bite.
Again, I key in on the Angels.
They want a “big bat” that they don’t really need and… the only thing they really do need that they don’t have is middle relief depth.
And their depth in everything other than power and middle relief is absolutely disgusting.
Just a couple of points about the Phillies. It’s true that the Phillies are underperforming their Phytaagorean expectations (i.e. their W-L record is much lower than their run differential predicts). However, the Phillies’ run differential is much higher than their expected runs scored and allowed would predict. Baseball Prospectus’ Adjusted Standings Report:
Phillies:
457 RS, 382 RA (53.1 W1, 37.9 L1)
458 EQR, 417 EQRA (49.6 W2, 41.4 L2)
450 AEQR, 419 AEQRA (48.5 W3, 42.5 L3)
Mets:
436 RS, 417 RA (46.9 W1, 43.1 L1)
423 EQR, 385 EQRA (48.9 W2, 41.1 L2)
416 AEQR, 389 AEQRA (47.9 W3, 42.91 W3)
(For those who have no idea what I’m talking about…EQR is a Baseball Prospectus formula for expected runs scored by the team, based on stats like OBP, SLG, etc. EQRA is the same formula for expected runs allowed. AEQR is EQR, adjusted for the quality of the opposition’s offense. AEQRA is EQRA, adjusted for the quality of the opposition’s pitching & defense. W2 is second-order wins, i.e. the number of wins that would be predicted by EQR & EQRA. W3 is third-order wins, i.e. the number of wins that would be predicted by AEQR & AEQRA. Also see the Wikipedia entry on Pythagorean expectations for a fuller explanation.)
In terms of players underachieving, Jimmy Rollins’s numbers this year (.268/.332/.430) are actually in line with his career numbers (.277/.331/.441). 2007 was a career year for him. I agree that Ryan Howard is a likely candidate to improve in the 2nd half, but you also have a lot of Phillies likely to regress to their mean: most of the Phillies bullpen for instance. Also, Kyle Kendrick’s ERA is much lower than his WHIP and K/BB ratio would predict.
Thank you, Peter H. Great stuff. As I was reading this article, I was struck by how Dan said a couple of things that aren’t going the Phillies way and then didn’t mention anywhere where the Phillies are due for some regression (especally that overachieving bullpen). We’re not going to be sellers. It’s a cute idea and all, but we’re not going to be sellers, and nor should we be.
As far as this:
I don’t know what the guy has to do to get in better graces with us, but this is what Delgado has done since April 27: .271/.345/.522/.867
That is 2.5 months of more than decent production from first base. Delgado should still ideally be platooned, but he is not a bench player.
However, I’m holding out hope that the Mets can exploit this illusory hot streak for Delgado and fleece some AL team looking for “one more bat” to stick in their DH slot.
Thank you Danny-O. The ridiculous premise that Delgado has had a recent hot streak is so unsubstantiated, it is laughable. The man is slowly inching his production back to respectability for over 2 months now. If he continues to produce at around a .850 OPS this offense is completely different.
There were plenty of knowledgeable baseball people out there who said, early in the season, that Delgado would begin to hit once the weather got warmer. And guess what? He has.
lucienlc: Good point on Delgado; I had missed that.
Also, in the same span, Delgado has crushed righties to the tune of a .282/.371/.564 line. At the very least, Delgado can still hit a bunch of righties. For all the flak he takes, Delgado is too good for his skills to have evaporated completely so quickly. He still has some value.
The Mets should be neither buyers nor sellers. They should make trades that overall benefit the ballclub both now and in the future.
For example, Baseball Prospectus gives the Mets about a 57% chance of making the playoffs.
So let’s go with this momentum, and also pawn off pieces we don’t like.
I agree that we should look to deal guys like Schoeneweiss and Pedro and if we could get anything for Alou, great. But guys like Wagner and Ollie should stay. We’ll get a nice draft pick for Mr. Perez anyway.
No way do I think we are a seller team. Even take as a given that we have a less than 50% chance to catch the Phillies, the idea just doesn’t make any sense in what is going on around it.
And let’s face it, if you do want to look to next year, rebuilding is not going to be the goal. If you look at our problems this year, this team could very well be one player from being the best team in the NL. That player being Texiera. We sign Texiera and stick him in the 4 spot of this lineup and suddenly this team all makes sense again. Which is why we look like a good team now with Delgado actually hitting.
Now, I could certainly see moving a player like Show for some farm relief, and especially if Alou came back I could see us moving Delgado if we could get anything of value for him. But Wagner? Ollie? Pedro? There is more chance of Bush winning a Nobel Prize in Science than there is of us trying to move those three players this year for prospects.
While I appreciate the logic, I don’t see Omar unloading these guys unless Mets are 10 games out on 25 July. In fact, I am afraid he will do his best to give up the few remaining chips for another middle aged former star.
Perhaps I am not reading the same newspapers, but I think this is an unfair characterization of Heilman. I have never read about him whining - just upon being asked if he would rather start, his answer is a polite yes.
Major league baseball is first and last a business. The Wilpons are not going into seller mode when the team’s 1 1/2 games out of first and, most important, 9 months away from inaugurating a brand new, very expensive ballpark. That would send the wrong message to the people who are expected to pony up for those very expensive seats. So the Mets will not be sellers; we can only hope they will be smart buyers and can add 1 good bat without getting fleeced. Among other things, Omar’s job depends upon doing it.
I wonder if there is a planet where all persons places, things and ideas are referred to as “dearths”.
Strictly on baseball terms, the Mets should be sellers, mostly because the farm system needs to be restocked, and their chances of winning a pennant do not seem particularly high at this point.
Wagner is a definite sell. Too many teams need (or think they need) a closer, and the “closer” title inflates his value tremendously. You could get a haul for him that dwarfs his real value, and his contract expires next year anyway.
The next-most obvious sale item is Ryan Church, if he gets healthy. He is in the height of his prime, and will not get any better. He is also very likely overperforming this year. There is no better time to sell him, as you could get somebody to get you something rather sweet. Wagner and Church in a package will net you next year’s Ryan Braun and then some.
With the others, it depends on how much you can get for them. Perez, if he stays hot, will find a buyer who will overpay, Heilman could be of great service to a team like the Yanks, starving for middle relief; but unless you can get someone to overpay, you keep both.
I can’t think of any contender that would actually need Delgado enough to give up anything worth getting for him.
If you really want to go on fire-sale mode, put Beltran on the market, or perhaps…(gasp) Johan waives his no-trade clause. I know it would seem idiotic to trade someone you just signed, but someone who needs these players more than you do now would gladly replenish the Mets’ farm for them if the Mets eat some contract money.
So before you mock me (particularly for the last two…think)
Binghamton:
1st: Carp
2nd: Murphy
3rd:Larouch
SS: Reid Brignac
C: Clement
RF: Fernando!
LF: Evans
CF:Austin Jackson
P: Rick Porcello
(This is not to say that I think we could get all or any of these prospects; it is meant to infuse the reader with the beautiful sensation of possessing a top-of-the line (all right…delusional fantasy) farm system.)
Middle Releivers present the best combination of trade-ability and relative value. As has been shown in study after stufy, the marginal value added of an elite middle releiver and a MLE is minimal since they work so few innings a year. Moreover, there is zero correlation between production from one year to the next making it very difficult to predict performance over time.
With two red hot (but ultimately MLE caliber) players in our pen right now, we need to sell high. I completely agree with the Schoenweis deal and would add Pedro Feliciano to the mix. Both guys would return reasonably good low level prospects in advanced A ball or perhaps an average high level prospect at the Double A level.
That said, I don’t remember Omar Minaya ever trading Major League talent for prospects once since he arrived in New York, although I could be mistaken.