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July 3, 2008
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Maximizing Utility, 2008 Edition
Scribbled by: Dan Scotto @ 1:04 am | Filed under: Articles

One of my favorite lists to examine at the halfway point is the team’s production by position, wondering where the Mets are getting subpar work and where they’re getting standout work.

Pos   AVE   OBA   SLG  OPS Rnk (NL)
C    .257  .335  .338     12
1B   .234  .304  .383     14
2B   .257  .357  .345      8
3B   .292  .384  .503      3
SS   .287  .348  .470      2
LF   .228  .285  .305     15
CF   .268  .367  .452      3
RF   .293  .353  .450      8
P    .110  .161  .137     12
PH   .194  .263  .278     16

So, the Mets are doing quite well from their big three: Beltran, Reyes, and Wright have powered center, short, and third to the top of the NL. Church’s injury damaged the Mets in right, but even then, they’re in the middle of the pack. Castillo, for all the flak he takes, has also been in the middle of the pack offensively.

Still, the rest of the offense has been fairly inept. They’ve gotten subpar production from first, catcher, and left field. The bench play has been similarly awful.

1. Play Ramon Castro more.

Please, for the love of God, I’ve been on this for a while, but the guy can hit. Coming off a .285/.331/.556 year in 2007, Castro has simply continued to hit, posting a .259/.355/.426 line in limited work. I would prefer if he and Schneider, who has hit .235/.305/.311 since May 1, platooned. I guarantee that Castro would at least add some much-needed pop to a flailing order. Let’s move past the oversleeping incident; Castro can hit a lot. Last year around this time, I wrote something along the same lines:

“No one is arguing that Castro is a fantastic hitter, but he certainly has more power than Lo Duca, he walks more, and he’s a better defensive player. A repeat of his .244/.321/.435 from 2005 is not out of the question, and that’s more valuable than the .283/.330/.383 that Lo Duca has put up thus far. They don’t need to bench Lo Duca. They just need to spell him more frequently.”

I’ll push the same line of reasoning about Schneider. There’s just very little reason for Schneider to play against lefties at all; he doesn’t have a single extra base hit against them this year, and he’s a career .244/.309/.325 hitter against them in 545 ABs (Castro, in 200 ABs, is a .272/.354/.446 hitter against them).

2. Look for an option to play first base against lefties.

I think that the Yankees series was fairly instructive about what Carlos Delgado can and can’t do. He can hit the ball a LONG way when he makes contact and can extend his arms; his power and raw strength is still there. He can also go the other way with pitches outside, when he tries to. He cannot, at this point, get around on pitches belt-high inside, or catch up with a good fastball, or hit lefties. Check out the highlights of the three home runs; they were below-the-waist fastballs below 90 mph with a LOT of plate. More critically, though, check out the L/R split:

vs. lefties: .213/.255/.371
vs. righties: .238/.330/.436

If those hold (small samples), you can survive with Delgado in the lineup against righties, but he absolutely destroys you against lefties. Andy Phillips was actually a pretty good idea, for that reason.

I also like the idea of Valentino Pascucci, who is toiling away in Triple-A while destroying lefties to the tune of .400/.514/.836. Maybe his swing is full of holes, but even someone who could just mash mistakes would be useful.

3. Bolster the bench.

This one will fix itself, kind of, as the team gets healthier, but the bench play thus far this year has been very bad. If Alou comes back healthy, a bench of Pascucci, Chavez, Tatis, Easley, and Castro/Schneider would be serviceable. I would bet that Marlon Anderson will improve on his .198/.227/.286 line. Really, it would be useful to find a scrapheap replacement for Tatis, who is useful in that he plays infield, but he can’t hit at this stage of his career. His .256/.286/.314 line looks about right to me, and, a couple of big hits aside, Tatis is a known quantity at this point.

4. Find a defensive replacement for second base.

I love Damion Easley, but I think that this list is instructive:


Rnk Name Team Inn ZR
1 Mark Ellis OAK 620 .913
2 Brandon Phillips CIN 686 .874
3 Tadahito Iguchi SD 521 .861
4 Mark Grudzielanek KC 501 .853
5 Robinson Cano NYA 690 .850
6 Aaron W Hill TOR 479 .837
7 Jeff Kent LAN 491 .832
8 Chase Utley PHI 696 .829
9 Freddy Sanchez PIT 639 .822
10 Kelly A Johnson ATL 606 .819
11 Kaz Matsui HOU 487 .815
12 Felipe Lopez WAS 507 .815
13 Rickie Weeks MIL 571 .813
14 Placido Polanco DET 592 .812
15 Brian Roberts BAL 667 .811
16 Dustin L Pedroia BOS 705 .810
17 Ian M Kinsler TEX 699 .805
18 Jose C Lopez SEA 666 .803
19 Dan C Uggla FLA 665 .800
20 Akinori Iwamura TB 688 .793
21 Orlando Hudson ARI 610 .782
22 Luis Castillo NYN 547 .727
23 Damion Easley NYN 172 .645

I don’t know how to fix this, but the Mets simply do not have adequate defense at second base. Joe Smith, Pedro Feliciano, Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez, and Scott Schoeneweis are all groundball relievers. Castillo’s here for the long haul, but the Mets could use a defensive replacement for him.

I think the key problem for the Mets, at this stage, has been the Church injury. The bottom of the Mets lineup has simply been ineffective; we can talk about bad pitching performances all we like, but the team has so often not scored any runs that it hasn’t mattered. Without Church, and with Delgado’s struggles, the bottom of the lineup has simply been untenable.

One other modest proposal: the second leadoff hitter scheme. I think it fits the Mets really well:

1. Reyes (SS)
2. Church (RF)
3. Wright (3B)
4. Beltran (CF)
5. Alou (LF) or Castro (C)
6. Delgado (1B)
7. Castro/Schneider (C) or Chavez (LF)
8. PITCHER
9. Castillo (2B)

Something thereabouts, I think, would help the Mets a bit. The second-leadoff hitter apparently adds about 10 runs over the course of a full season, and Castillo is the prototype.

This is a 40-41 team and has pretty much played like one. A bunch of things need to happen for the Mets to make a serious push for the playoffs: Alou returning from injury would help immeasurably (well, measurably, but I think the word fits here); Pedro needs to get straightened out. I think a good place to start, though, would be to start driving home the point of efficiency. The Mets are facing serious drag from a few key spots, and a couple of moves would open it up a bit. Is this a playoff caliber team? I’m not sure. I do think they’ll give us an interesting second half, though. And really, that’s why we watch.

Dan is a student who writes for MetsGeek every Wednesday. He welcomes feedback at dscotto10@gmail.com.

9 Responses to “Maximizing Utility, 2008 Edition”

  1. Comment posted by Chaucer on July 3, 2008 at 7:01 am (#749543)

    Nice one, Dan. Thanks for this.

  2. Comment posted by Dave in Spain on July 3, 2008 at 7:59 am (#749545)

    Is this a playoff caliber team?

    No, not the way they´ve played.

  3. Comment posted by John Peterson on July 3, 2008 at 11:05 am (#749642)

    Well, at least we don’t have Ruben Gotay playing second base.

    Hey Dan, these are all great suggestions, but none of them are going to happen. We have been saying these things for years, it seems like. The moves are almost obvious, and a capable front office would make them, but a capable front office this is not.

    I’m not sure what bench configuration you are arguing for, but Anderson and Tatis have to go. Anderson is one thing– he’s a “pinch hitter,” right, but he can’t hit and he can’t play the field. Tatis is not a good defender either, and he has a big, long, loopy swing that just doesn’t work anymore. Why the Mets are committed to these guys is beyond me. Oh right, it’s because Omar Minaya is loyal to certain players and doesn’t quite grasp the fluidity of the baseball commodities market.

  4. Comment posted by Pat Andriola on July 3, 2008 at 11:40 am (#749700)

    Dan- Awesome article.

    Imagine how much money the Mets could have saved by platooning Easley and Gotay and then cornering a second baseman this off-season (maybe a 2-3 year rental before Reese Havens is hopefully ready). Gotay is struggling in Atlanta, but it’s only 71 at-bats. Also, if you look at Gotay vs righties, he’s hitting .245/.327/.408 so far this year. Couple that with the way Easley crushes lefties, and you have a solid duo at second (plus, it’d be a cheap duo!)

    Lineup going into this year should have been:

    Jose Reyes
    Lastings Milledge
    Carlos Beltran
    David Wright
    Moises Alou
    Carlos Delgado
    Ramon Castro
    Gotay/Easley

    Church has been great (in limited time), but that trade probably won’t look so hot in the long run. Plus, the deal forced us to see Brian Schneider make constant outs.

    Also, if Omar doesn’t resign Castillo, then he has a ton of money to pick up a nice backup/starting OF for when Alou goes down, and maybe a bullpen arm better than Matt Wise.

    Omar Minaya id just a below average general manager.

  5. Comment posted by §Ø©ª£ μΣŦƒдⁿ on July 3, 2008 at 3:14 pm (#749797)

    If those hold (small samples), you can survive with Delgado in the lineup against righties, but he absolutely destroys you against lefties. Andy Phillips was actually a pretty good idea, for that reason.

    I also like the idea of Valentino Pascucci, who is toiling away in Triple-A while destroying lefties to the tune of .400/.514/.836. Maybe his swing is full of holes, but even someone who could just mash mistakes would be useful.

    Dan, Why is Andy Phillips a good idea? Phillips platoon splits in his career:

    vs LHP: 165AB .206/.241/.279
    vs RHP: 340AB .268/.313/.421

    Looks like a worse batter than Delgado, and he posts a reverse platoon split, which makes him a bad platoon partner for CD.

    At this point, I have to believe Pascucci kicked Omar’s dog or something for him to not be called up. Even if he’s awful, it’ll maintain status quo.

  6. Comment posted by littlefallsmets on July 3, 2008 at 3:38 pm (#749810)

    I think we have to pin the dumping of Gotay on Willie’s 18th Century attitudes on the position of second-base as much as we can on Minaya’s inability to see the ramification of small picture moves, though.

    And… as much as I think trading Milledge for Church and the Schnide… the idea that Castro is an everyday catcher IS rather farcical. Dude is ten hells of fragile.

    Now, if Minaya had protected Flores with a roster spot instead of Julio Goddamned Franco a while back, we wouldn’t HAVE the problem of needing a catcher to at-least platoon with Castro…

    But if that mistake is already made, a catcher IS needed from somewhere else for the roster.

    Not Brian Schneider out there swinging a goddamn wet noodle for a bat, certainly, but someone.

  7. Comment posted by littlefallsmets on July 3, 2008 at 3:42 pm (#749811)

    Sadly, sadly, sadly Delgado was a sunk cost for this year as was Pedro and Alou… these three sunk costs alone probably needed us to accept this as a rebuilding year from the start.

    But for God’s sake, Castillo was just a ridiculous brick of a signing.

    If there was any way to MoVaughn him and try to collect the insurance to counteract the bulk of his contract, I’d hope the front office lawyers are working on it.

  8. Comment posted by Dave in Spain on July 3, 2008 at 4:44 pm (#749830)

    I´d much rather have Church than Milledge this year, and probably next. Milledge now:.245/.312/.368.
    Jesus Flores, on the other hand….283/.345/.454

  9. Comment posted by littlefallsmets on July 3, 2008 at 5:36 pm (#749834)

    Would you rather have Milledge and Flores, though, or Church and Schneider?

    Would you rather have Milledge, Flores and Gotay platooning with Easley or Church, Schneider and Castillo on and off the DL for the next four years?

    It isn’t just one piece here or one piece there we’re talking about. The further we go back, the more the whole organizational attitude toward developing young talent goes.

    Would you rather have all those guys and Heath Bell or all those other guys and nothing?

    Would you rather have all those guys and Heath Bell and Mike Jacobs and some back-of-the-bullpen help or all those other guys and Carlos Delgado?

    The more moves we go backwards and the more we project into the future, the uglier and uglier it gets.

    If you want to say “who would be hitting better in a lost 2008 campaign, Lastings Milledge or Ryan Church?” …yes, you probably have yourself the very short term answer “Ryan Church”.

    But going for the short-term answers are why the Mets have in the course of less than two years from… being a Cliff Floyd at-bat away from the world series in October of 2006 to… being a 40-44 club in July of 2008.

    In today’s ballgame, you can’t try to play for this year anymore. There’s no such thing.

    Three best teams in baseball right now, Red Sox, Rays and Angels. Three teams agressively building from within and buying star pieces only went they CAN’T fill a position from within.

    Stars get old a lot faster now that HGH and steroids are smaller factors again. Player comes up at 23, say, plays a coupla years for the minimum, gets ONE big long-term contract and starts fading in his early-to-mid thirties.

    There’s no SECOND big longterm contract to count on anymore. That way of running a ballclub is gone, now, and Omar Minaya just can’t admit it yet.

    Build from within and with guys on their FIRST big free-agent go-around because…

    The second big free-agent go-around split town when the Mitchell Report hit.

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