Well, it’s been a rough couple of weeks. Willie Randolph was finally fired (yay) but in such a horrible way that even his most vehement critics felt kind of bad for him (well, mostly). Sure, in terms of managerial style Jerry Manuel is basically Willie Randolph Lite, but I have no doubt that this cosmetic personnel change will hold a profound and lasting effect on the character of the team.

Anyway, with the Mets lackluster start and the laughably inept firing of Willie Randolph, it’s gotten kind of embarrassing to root for a team that has become the laughing stock of MLB. One popular Mets fan site even abandoned the team altogether, in favor of the Rays, maybe you read about it? The media backlash against the early favorite to win the NL East has been swift and severe.

But you know what? I’m sick of it. I’m starting the backlash to the backlash. Sure, in 2008 the Mets have only expanded the grave that they dug themselves last September by struggling to tread water at .500, but so what? What follows here is a list of 10 reasons why it’s still good to be a Mets fan.

1) The Mets Still Have a 40% Chance Of Making the Playoffs

I swear, it’s true. At least, according to Clay Davenport. After simulating the rest of the season a million times (adjusted for talent, as represented in their PECOTA projections) the boys at BP think the Mets make the playoffs four times out of ten, even after the crummy start. Those are much better odds than you thought, admit it.

2) Johan Santana Is a Notoriously Slow Starter

I feel like everybody knows this, but somehow everybody’s forgotten about it at the same time. For his career, Santana has a 3.52 ERA in the first half; in the second half it’s 2.79. Santana’s strikeout and walk rates traditionally improve in the second half, but only slightly. The main difference has been in his home run rate, which in the past has improved by more than 22% from the first half to the second . . . the same home runs which have been Santana’s bugaboo all through the first half of 2008. As good as Santana has been so far this year, he might get even better.

3) David Wright And Jose Reyes: Still Just 25

Again, something that everybody knows, but somehow forgets about at the same time. Even if 2008 ends up being an embarrassing addition to the collapse of 2007, the Mets will still have Reyes, Wright, Beltran, and Santana under contract for 2009. That’s a pretty good core to build around. Wright and Reyes will be just 26, and probably still approaching their peak offensive value. Utley, Rollins and Howard will be 30, 30 and 29 respectively, and are probably entering their declines.

4) Reyes Runs

Last week against the Angels, Jose Reyes got on base with an infield hit, stole second and moved to third on the throwing error, and then came home for the first run of the game on a David Wright groundout to second base. One run without anybody hitting the ball out of the infield. Gary Cohen calls those “Reyes Runs.” You can almost hear the capital R. And while I would rather have the Mets scoring on scorching line drives and long home runs, those Reyes Runs sure are fun to watch. Like falling backwards into a pile of garbage and finding a gold watch.

5) Jerry Manuel – At Least He’s Funny

And he will cut you, fool. And I swear if I ever hear about a player’s nice little rhythm again, I’ll cut you, too.

6) The Mets Are Almost Certain to Improve

Yes, it’s been a pretty crummy 74 games so far. But you know what? Even if nothing else changes the Mets are likely to improve. Of course, that’s partly because the Mets have underperformed so badly this far that they almost couldn’t help but get better, but check out the team’s current .289 BABIP – that should be more like .300. That’s a fair amount of bad luck. If that bad luck regresses a little bit, a few more of those balls should fall in for hits . . . maybe even with runners in scoring position. But let’s not get greedy.

7) So Long, David Sloane

Yes, the Mets farm system is bare. But at the end of this year the Mets will have more than $50 million in payroll coming off the books, including: Delgado ($16 mil), Alou ($7.5 mil), Pedro Martinez ($11.8 mil), El Duque ($7 mil) and Oliver Perez ($6.5 mil). Also going away: Carlos Delgado’s batshit-crazy agent. Anyway, that’s a lot of scratch for whoever’s GM next year to pick up free agents.

8) Only One More Year at the Big Purple Dump

Look, we all love Shea Stadium, but it’s a dump. It isn’t even a historic dump, like Yankee Stadium (which, however historic, is also a dump). I can’t even imagine what it’ll be like to watch a ballgame in a stadium where mysterious liquids don’t drip onto my head and into my beer from the rafters underneath the upper deck. Anyway, be sure to really appreciate all that Shea has to offer while it’s still around, so you can tell stories about how awful it was after it’s gone. Also, get a good healthy dose of those Mystery Liquids (I hear they cause super powers).

9) Mike Pelfrey May Never Throw Another Off-Speed Pitch Again

Won’t it be interesting to find out? Of course, if he can keep a miniscule home run rate, he might actually be successful, too. And wouldn’t that be a pleasant surprise?

10) It Can’t Get Any Worse

Well, I mean it could get worse; we’re not the Nationals here. But that’s the problem: expectations. When the Mets cracked .500 again back in 2005, I was ecstatic. Of course, this was coming off of the Art Howe years, so if the Mets were able to field a squad that could move under its own power and fight its way out of a wet paper bag, I was happy. But these Mets were supposed to be a 90+ win team, and they’re still trying to fulfill expectations that they raised two years ago. Anyway, now that our expectations have been adjusted down a bit, maybe we can just enjoy the games. The playoffs aren’t out of the question, you know – 53 and 35 would probably get us there.

Special thanks to Baseball Prospectus, Paul Katcher and Josh Kalk. They know what they done.