It’s funny; normally, considering the level the Mets have been playing at recently, you’d think I’d be thrilled with two-of-three from the Texas Rangers. I still feel disappointed. Maybe had they completed the come from behind victory in the first game of yesterday’s doubleheader and lost the second, I’d be more invigorated, but I’m still on the listless side. If the Mets (33-35) could pull off a series victory against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (42-28), I might find myself a little more energized. How likely is that? Not very. Prior to losing their series with the Braves over the weekend, they had won their previous eight series, a pretty foreign thought around Queens these days.
The opener features recent hard-luck loser Mike Pelfrey (2-6, 4.24) and Jered Weaver (6-6, 4.45). Johan Santana (7-4, 2.85) and John Lackey (3-1, 1.83) are scheduled to pitch on Tuesday, while Oliver Perez (5-4, 4.98) and Jon Garland (6-4, 4.13) duel on Wednesday.
Game 1: Jered Weaver, RHP
What’s the Story? Over three seasons with Long Beach State, Weaver went 37-9 with a 2.44 ERA, 431 strikeouts, and 73 walks over 369.1 innings. Needless to say, he had an outstanding college career that made him the 12th pick overall in 2004. By midseason 2006, he was up with the big club and went 11-2 with a 2.56 ERA. He wasn’t quite as good in 2007, but he was still solid, and he’s pitched about the same this season. Weaver throws a 91-94 mile-per-hour four-seam fastball with some movement, a sinking two-seamer, a good, low-80s slider, an improving changeup, and an average curveball.
Last Year: Weaver’s never pitched against the Mets.
What to Expect: Weaver’s a pretty smart pitcher, who does a lot of little things well. His fastball’s above average, but it looks faster due to his ability to hide the ball. None of his breaking pitches have better than average break, but they can both be difficult pitches due to his command and an ability to adapt the break and speed of the pitches to the situation at hand. He’ll use the four-seamer to get ahead in the count, the two-seamer when he needs a groundball, while the slider will be his primary out pitch to righties. He’ll mix in the change in early and middle counts, while he’ll mostly save the curve for fastball hitters. Early in the game, expect to see more fastballs and changeups.
Game 2: John Lackey, RHP
What’s the Story? After quietly being one of the league’s better starters in 2005 and 2006, Lackey exploded in 2007, finishing third in the AL Cy Young voting, thanks to a 19-9 record and a 3.01 ERA. The biggest difference-maker was a refinement of his control; his walk rate improved by 30 percent. He started this season on the disabled list due to a triceps strain, something that will bear watching as the season progresses, as it could signal a more serious injury. Still, he’s looked great after his first six starts this season. Lackey’s got a fastball that can touch 94 but mostly hovers around 90, he’s got a good slider with late bite, a good mid-70s curve, and a solid changeup with a little sink.
Last Year: Lackey hasn’t started against the Mets since 2005—his only start against them—when he allowed three runs on six hits over five innings and change.
What to Expect: Like Weaver, he’ll throw the fastball to get ahead of hitters. He prefers to throw them down and away, but he will climb the ladder to get a hitter to swing out of the zone. The slider’s his out pitch, but he’s got outstanding command over the pitch, and he’ll throw in on any count. He’ll use the curve to change a hitter’s eye level, mostly early in counts, while the change will be mostly used against lefties. It often pays to work the count with Lackey, even though he’s got good control. He tends to throw too many pitches, and he can get frustrated when he misses the strike zone, often over-compensating with a fastball that gets too much of the plate.
Game 3: Jon Garland, RHP
What’s the Story? Garland struggled last season after a couple of fluky 18-win seasons. In fact, he struggled enough that the White Sox opted to trade him to the Angels in exchange for shortstop Orlando Cabrera. Frankly, it might have been a smart move by the White Sox. At his best, Garland’s a groundball pitcher with a good walk rate, but the walk rate has been declining, and his strikeout rate—which is also declining—is so low that it will always limit how good he can be. Garland throws a sinking fastball that sits in the high-80s and can touch the low-90s, a good changeup, a decent slider, and an average curve.
Last Year: Garland’s never pitched against the Mets during his nine-year American League career.
What to Expect: Garland really doesn’t have a plus pitch he can use to consistently get outs, so he instead has to rely on his fastball, which he’ll throw roughly two-thirds of the time. Against righties, he’ll use the slider when he gets ahead in the count, but against lefties he’ll go almost exclusively fastball-changeup instead. The curveball is really a show pitch, although he will use it a little more often against lefties, due to its added depth. Unfortunately for Garland, he often has trouble throwing his offspeed stuff for strikes, which forces him to throw fastballs in the zone, which get predictable. He’ll also occasionally leave it upstairs, and he doesn’t really have the velocity to blow it by guys.
Overall: I think the Mets will pull out one win, but I can’t in good conscience predict anything more. But which game will the Mets win? I’ll say the finale. Pelfrey can’t buy a win these days, and both teams have their respective aces taking the mound on Tuesday, so I’ll pick Lackey in a squeaker. That leaves Wednesday. Both pitchers can be inconsistent, but I’ll take Perez.
Alex is a raving lunatic whose work can be found regularly here at Mets Geek. He welcomes comments and criticisms at kingblackfish@yahoo.com.
http://letsgomets.vox.com/library/post/last-time-in-anaheim.html
I wonder who will be the DH for us in this series. Marlon Anderson, probably.
Either Anderson or Castro, I’d say.
There’s this guy in AAA. He can’t field a lick, but he can hit.
Don’t like the sound of that.