Another series, another disappointment. After the Mets’ bats briefly came alive on Saturday, they went back to suckitude on Sunday, managing just one run off Aaron Cook as their record fell to 23-25. Now the Mets can flail about against division competition; next, they face off against the NL East-leading Florida Marlins (29-20). The Fish, expected by many to bring up the rear in the division, have been one of baseball’s biggest surprises. Quite frankly, I’m not sure how they’ve done it. Their offense is powerful but lacks on-base ability, their starting pitching is thoroughly mediocre, and their bullpen has been lucky—only two guys have a strikeout-to-walk ratio better than two. Their Pythagorean record stands at 24-23, so there’s a lot of reason to believe they’re not as good as they’ve been playing despite still being better than anyone expected.

Ricky Nolasco (3-3, 4.62) gets the start against Mike Pelfrey (2-5, 5.00) in the Memorial Day opener, while Andrew Miller (4-3, 5.33) opposes Johan Santana (5-3, 3.36) on Tuesday. Wednesday’s finale features Marlins ace Scott Olsen (4-2, 3.38) and Oliver Perez (4-3, 4.53).

Game 1: Ricky Nolasco, RHP

What’s the Story? The Marlins handed Nolasco a slot in the starting rotation last year, but it didn’t last very long. Elbow inflammation cut his season short after just five outings. When he returned this season, Ricky found himself relegated to the bullpen, though that didn’t last very long. He moved to the rotation on April 11th, where he’s been ever since. Nolasco’s pitching a little differently since the last time he’s faced the Mets: he’s still got a low-90s sinking fastball with a very good curveball, but he’s completely abandoned the change in favor of a splitter instead. He’s been up-and-down this season, as he’s had a problem getting batters out after his third inning of work, something to be expected since he’s still building back arm strength.

Last Year: Nolasco made just one start against the Mets in 2007, and it was his best of the season. He went five innings and allowed just one run on a solo homer to David Wright. He walked none and struck out five.

What to Expect: In his last start, where he outpitched Brandon Webb, Nolasco was able to get ahead of batters with his fastball, allowing him to use his curve and splitter to best effect. For the most part, he’ll use the curve as an out pitch against righties while saving the splitter for lefties. Despite the splitter, lefties are still killing him, posting a 1.011 OPS this season. Location of his heater can also be a problem, and he’ll leave the occasional ball up in the zone. To boot, he tires out quickly, so Mets hitters need to be patient to drive up his pitch count.

Game 2: Andrew Miller, LHP

What’s the Story? You can read my original scouting report on Miller here.

This Year: The Mets pounded Miller on April 2nd to the tune of five runs over four-plus innings. He gave up eight hits—five for extra bases—walked two, and struck out five.

What to Expect: Miller had been a disappointment until recently. Over his last four starts, however, he’s gone 3-1 with a 1.44 ERA, striking out 26 and walking seven over 25 innings of work. The key’s been pitching to both sides of the plate and the ability to throw his devastating slider for strikes. Miller’s biggest problem had been predictability; hitters generally knew when and where he was pitching the fastball and when he’d throw the slider. When he can get the slider over, he can use it earlier in counts to keep hitters off balance. Lately, he’s just done a wonderful job of keeping hitters guessing.

Game 3: Scott Olsen, LHP

What’s the Story? Olsen had a 2007 I’m sure he’d like to forget. On the field, he pitched terribly allowing a 5.81 ERA over 176 innings of work. While his component ratios had been very promising in 2006, all three took a serious turn for the worse. Off the field, he had several issues, namely getting into an altercation with Sergio Mitre resulting in a suspension for insubordination and getting arrested last year for a DUI and resisting arrest. He’s still got the talent to be an excellent starter: a low-to-mid 90s fastball, a great slider, and a pretty decent change. I should note that his velocity’s been way down this year, into the mid-to-high 80s.

Last Year: Olsen made four starts against the Mets last season. None of them were very good, as he received game scores of 43, 40, 47, and 35. He went 1-2 with a respectable 4.09 ERA, but a closer look at the numbers reveal deeper troubles. Mets hitters hit .313/.365/.458 against him; he was lucky that ERA wasn’t higher. The Mets should consider stocking the lineup with righties against Olsen where they can, as southpaws have not fared well against his slider at all—they’re hitting .130/.200/.152 against him this year.

What to Expect: Don’t be fooled by Olsen’s surface numbers: he’s not pitching any better than he was last season. He’s striking out just four batters per nine innings, and he’s walked just as many as he’s struck out. To boot, 66% of the balls he puts into play—and considering that strikeout rate, it’s a lot—are in the air. Quite frankly, he’s been lucky in almost every way a pitcher can be lucky.

Overall: It’s impossible to work up a good vibe about this Mets team. They could easily win this series. The Marlins aren’t that good, and I think the pitching matchups favor the Mets considerably in all but the first game. Still, I’ll say they only take one out of three, winning only the last game. I just can’t pick them to win a series until they prove me wrong.