John Kerry, having become a target of vilification and a bad joke among Democrats, notwithstanding, there is an established rule of reference for prospective political candidates; if you lose twice, you are done.

Three years, 127.3 innings, and multiple opportunities through, Mike Pelfrey is, to many Mets fans, probably about to receive the honorary “bust” tag, an often hailed award among former Mets pitching prospects.

Anyone familiar with the lottery they call “Making it to the Big Leagues,” of course, knows that Pelfrey’s possible failure would not be of Shakespearean proportions and would be nothing unique. Sure, in a draft that Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci says “is likely to eclipse the greatest in baseball history”, it was indeed legendary for hitting talent: Ryan Braun, Travis Buck, Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Gordon, Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Upton, Ryan Zimmerman, and the list goes on.

But away from a world where arguably the most vexing transition is that from an aluminum bat to wood, the 2005 pitching alumni have failed to dominate the big league scene with as much widespread success as the offensive end. Ricky Romero (six, Toronto), is in his third tour of Double-A this year and is sporting a 6.23 era; Wade Townsend (eight, Tampa Bay), and Cesar Carrillo (18, San Diego), have dealt with the injury bug all too commonly seen among collegiate pitchers; Mark Pawelex (20, Chicago Cubs), also battling injuries; Lance Broadway (fifteen, Chicago White Sox), Brian Bogusevich (24, Houston), Craig Hansen (26, Boston), and Jacob Morceaux (29, Florida) have all been regarded as major disappointments. Heck, you can make the argument that, aside from Matt Garza, Pelfrey has been one of the most successful picks in the first round back in ‘05.

All of which has led me to believe this: Mets fans’ discontent with Pelfrey seems to be rooted deep in Mets culture. You see, there seems to be this illusion that Pelfrey is part of an ancient scripture dating back to the days of Nolan Ryan, Doc Gooden’s unfortunate fall from grace, and more recently “Generation K,” where promising pitching prospects either fail to live up to expectations here or go on to fulfill their potential elsewhere. Everywhere I look nowadays, Mets fans are either calling for Pelfrey to switch to the bullpen long-term or measuring him against past flops more often than they argue over Willie’s potential replacements.

My fellow fans, I ask you to not dial 911 just yet, and simply be patient.

Two of my fellow colleagues—Jeff Matthews here and Jack Flynn at Flushing University—have both suggested that Pelfrey move to the pen for now. I disagree with Matthews that some of Pelfrey’s poor performance this year cannot be attributed to luck, since line drive rates are believed to be something that a pitcher exhibits little control over and widely varies from year to year. But, nevertheless, ground ball pitchers tend to have slightly higher BABIPs than your normal hurler, and Pelfrey has been hit hard this year (.333 ISOPa). Still, I have addressed the development concerns with moving Pelfrey to the pen, most notably in a feature I wrote over at Flushing University a few months back:

Far too many clubs try to implement the Minnesota Twins’ policy of letting pitching prospects throw out of the bullpen before transferring them to the big league rotation, when in many cases, pitchers have little to gain development-wise when they are placed in a relief role… At best, Pelfrey could see some improvement in his fastball command while being relegated to the role of a ground-ball-inducing reliever, but what about the other qualities needed to start? Pelfrey still needs to hone his slider, which has been occasionally dominant and mostly inconsistent. He will need to work even harder on changing speeds, since if he is going to keep his four seamer and sinker in the low 90s permanently, then his changeup, which when he did use it last year, was in the low to mid 80s, will need to have about an 8-10 mph difference from his fastball velocity. These are the things that must be taken into account before making Pelfrey the Aaron Heilman of tomorrow.

I cannot help but that think that Pelfrey has simply failed to adjust to the pressure of pitching in the big leagues. Under considerably less pressure in spring training in 2007, Pelfrey threw his sinker well to get ahead in the count, and even while battling for a spot in the rotation this spring, he threw his slider with far more consistency than previously seen. During this time, many people seemed to note, including former catcher Paul Lo Duca, how Pelfrey did not seem to have that “deer in the headlights” look. Pelfrey’s outing on May 3rd in Arizona, however, presented a different case of what has become a microcosm of a much larger problem: after starting the second inning with two strikes to Conor Jackson, Jackson slugged a fly ball into the left field stands just a few feet from the foul pole, and Pelfrey subsequently seemed to unravel, walking the next two batters.

Like Jeff and Jack, though, Pelfrey’s performance in 2008, (9% K/PA, 10% BB/PA) has led me to believe that Omar and company must take the initiative and let Pelfrey work on his stuff where he should have been all along—the minors. As Jeff pointed out last week, Pelfrey throws his fastball with far too much regularity and rarely turns to his change. While trying to keep hitters off balance at the big league level would not have as much of an effect as, say, perfecting his slider, at this stage, anything out of Pelfrey that slightly resembles your rudimentary fifth starter would be an improvement. Joe Janish of Mets Today even told me in a previous email exchange that, “A changeup can be thrown by anyone who has the desire and tenacity to master it. Whether he [Pelfrey] puts in the necessary time is unknown to us.”

My favorite reference point when alluding to a comparison for Pelfrey is Reds stud Homer Bailey. Bailey focused last year on perfecting his secondary stuff and this year on his overall command. Initially, it seemed as though he were struggling last year, as his 27% strikeout rate dropped to just 21% in 2007, and his walk rate was actually worse (12%). Yet, while his strikeout rate in Triple-A is very much league average (19%) thus far, his walk rate is at an all time low (7%).

Pelfrey walked just one batter in his last start against Cincinnati, and he threw 71 of his 106 pitches for strikes. At the same time, he struck out just three in six innings of work, which translates to 4.5 per nine innings. This underscores the fact that Pelfrey cannot make any substantial improvements at the big league level, particularly on multiple fronts.

“Patience and fortitude conquer all things.” That includes curses.

Notes

• The B-Mets placed RHP Jacob Ruckle on the DL Thursday due to right shoulder tendonitis.
• Hard throwing right hander Brant Rustich was finally added to the Sand Gnats roster Friday, although his debut later that night did not match the hype; Rustich threw just two-thirds of an inning while alloiwng two runs on three hits, one walk, and no strikeouts. Rustich was impressive in a late-season stint for Brooklyn last year, but his control problems from college came back to haunt him in the Hawaiian Winter League last fall.

Around the Minors

• Deolis Guerra has not lit up the sky with his performance thus far with the Twins A+ affiliate Fort Myers (14% K/PA, 8% BB/PA, 4.10 FIP), but the 19-year-old pitched well against his old mates on Saturday, giving up just two runs in six innings, while allowing five hits, no walks and striking out one. Guerra gave up just three earned runs in his first four starts but has allowed eleven runs in his last eight-and-a-third innings.
• Still just 19 years old, Orioles 2006 first-rounder Billy Rowell spent most of April on the DL before a less-than-spectacular return last month. He finally hit his first home run of the year on Saturday night and is hitting .304/.365/.429. Rowell largely disappointed many fans last year after hitting .271/.335/.424. Catcher Matt Wieters, meanwhile, is hitting .355/.435/.618 and leads the league in homeruns, slugging, and OPS and is second in batting. The 22-year-old is expected to be promoted to Double-A soon.