The Mets (19-16) did what they needed to do against one miserable team—the Cincinnati Reds—and now must do the same to another—the Washington Nationals (15-23). The Nationals are in town for the first four-game set of the year, and they’re more-or-less as miserable as they were the last time the two teams met. After splitting with the Mets, the Nats won their next three series (against the Cubs, Braves, and Pirates), but have since lost five out of their last six, to the likes of the Astros and Marlins.

It appears like the Nationals will throw Odalis Perez (0-3, 3.43), Chaminade High School alumnus John Lannan (3-3, 3.40), Tim Redding (4-3, 3.83), and Mike O’Connor (1-1, 13.00). The Mets will counter with Nelson Figueroa (2-2, 4.81) and John Maine (4-2, 3.00) in the first two games, but the third game appears to be up in the air. Johan Santana (4-2) will certainly pitch one of the final two games, though he’s currently scheduled for Thursday and is likely to stay there. Instead, one of the minor league veterans—Tony Armas or Claudio Vargas—will probably make his 2008 debut.

Game 1: Odalis Perez, LHP

What’s the Story? You can find my original scouting report on Perez here.

This Year: Perez started against the Mets on April 15th and wasn’t as sharp as he has been in other outings. He only gave up three runs in six innings, but he did allow six hits and four walks while striking out three. Jose Reyes went three-for-three against him—including a double and a triple—and he left a mistake out over the plate for David Wright to crush over the left field wall.

What to Expect: Perez has been surprisingly solid so far this season—not at all like the horror show that starred in Kansas City and Los Angeles in 2006 and 2007—despite starting the season 0-3. In fact, the Nationals’ offense has been held to three runs or less in all but two of Perez’s eight starts. Perez will throw a lot of fastballs and cutters to get ahead in the count to set up his changeup and curve. When he’s consistently able to jump ahead in count, he’s an effective pitcher. It should be noted that he’s averaged just a tick better than five innings per start this year, so don’t expect him to pitch too deep into the game. At least no without some help from the Mets’ hitters.

Game 2: John Lannan, LHP

What’s the Story? You can find my original scouting report on Lannan here.

This Year: Lannan pitched a hell of a game on April 17th, making for the perfect “local kid shows up the local team” story. Lannan pitched six innings, allowed one run on three hits, walked none, and struck out eleven. Even when the Mets’ offense put the ball in play, it tended to be on the ground. His breaking stuff was especially surprising, as he was able to consistently fool hitters with both his slider and curve, something few were expecting.

What to Expect: Lannan hasn’t been quite as effective since facing the Mets—the strikeouts, in particular, were an anomaly—but he’s still been the Nationals’ best pitcher since then. He’s at his best when he doesn’t put batters on base via the walk and keeps the ball on the ground. In his last start against the Astros, he walked only one and 15 of his 21 balls in play were grounders. The end result was one run over six frames. Mets hitters should certainly expect to see two-seamers low in the zone. The big question is whether his breaking stuff will be as effective this time as it was the last.

Game 3: Tim Redding, RHP

What’s the Story? You can find my original scouting report on Redding here.

This Year: Redding pitched so-so in his last outing against the Mets, on April 23rd. He threw 97 pitches before being taken out after allowing a single to Carlos Beltran with no out in the top of the sixth. He allowed three runs on four hits and three walks while striking out three. He especially had difficulty getting the ball over the plate to the Mets’ bottom two hitters, Brian Schneider and Johan Santana, which hurt him badly.

What to Expect: Redding’s been a little up-and-down this season, and he’s coming off one his worst outings of the year. On Friday, he allowed six runs over five-and-a-third innings against Florida. Redding got rattled when the home plate umpire, Kevin Causey, didn’t call a couple of close pitches strikes and failed to adjust his gameplan accordingly. In general, he failed to locate his fastball properly and caught too much of the plate too often. For Redding to have a successful outing on Wednesday, he’ll have to hit his spots.

Game 4: Mike O’Connor, LHP

What’s the Story? O’Connor’s taking the spot in the rotation vacated by left-hander Matt Chico, who was demoted to the bullpen after a string of ineffective starts to open up 2008. The Nationals gave O’Connor a major league trial in 2006 and were somewhat impressed; the young left-hander went just 3-8, but posted a passable 4.80 ERA. He didn’t pitch for the team at all in 2007, due to a long recovery from offseason elbow surgery—he spent the season pitching miserably at Double-A Harrisburg instead. With the Nats once more needing fresh bodies for the rotation, they turn once more to O’Connor. The 27-year-old has no fastball to speak of—it’s lucky if it hits 88—and instead has to rely on his changeup and curveball.

Last Year: O’Connor did not pitch against the Mets in 2007 but did make two starts against them in 2006. Over his career, which includes two starts and a relief appearance earlier this season, he’s 2-1 with a 4.97 ERA over 12.2 innings, striking out eleven and walking three.

What to Expect: O’Connor’s a soft-tossing lefty in the Mike Bacsik mold. To have any hope of success, he has to hit his spots with his fastball to set up the change and curve. Thus far this year, he’s done the opposite, walking eleven batters in nine innings of work. As if that wasn’t bad enough, he’s also allowed three homers. His first start, against the Marlins, was a total train wreck: nine runs in three innings and change. If O’Connor can spot his fastball and if he isn’t too predictable in working his change, he could throw six solid innings.

Overall: It’s tough to guess what’ll happen with both rotations in a little bit of flux right now, the Mets due to Saturday’s double header and the Nats because they don’t believe in O’Connor at all and might opt to throw someone else instead (the return of Matt Chico? Joel Hanrahan?). I’m picking the Mets for three out of four. Some of the Mets’ bats are showing signs of awakening, and this Nats team is bad. I think Lannan won’t strike out eleven Mets this time, and the Mets will tee off on O’Connor. And while I’m unsure about both Monday and Wednesday, I do think they’ll take one of the two. Which one? No clue, but I flipped a coin and it came up Wednesday. So the Mets lose to Perez and take three straight. Sound good to you?