After a tough couple of series on the West coast, the Mets (17-15) get to return home for a three-game set against the Cincinnati Reds (14-21), who are tied with Seattle for the majors’ third worst record. The Reds have the makings of a potent offense, but it’s just not quite clicking yet. The big problem has been an inability to get people on base—their .321 OBA ranks 11th in the NL. Defense has also been a major stepping stone for the Reds, as their .676 DER bests only the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Mets are lucky to miss the only two Reds starting pitchers who should frighten opponents, Aaron Harang and Edinson Volquez. In the opener, Matt Belisle (1-2, 6.91) faces Mike Pelfrey (2-2, 5.27). They’re followed by Bronson Arroyo (1-4, 8.63) and Johan Santana (3-2, 2.91) on Saturday, and rookie Johnny Cueto (2-3, 5.27) and Oliver Perez (2-3, 4.63) on Sunday.

Game 1: Matt Belisle, RHP

What’s the Story? After spending most of his major league career as a reliever, the 28-year-old Belisle converted back to starting full-time last season with mixed success. He walked very few batters (43 in 177.2 innings) and did a decent job of keeping the ball in the park (26 homers allowed), considering where he pitches half his games. However, his strikeout rate was thoroughly mediocre (6.33 K/9), which means he’s putting way too many balls in play, resulting in 212 hits last season. 2008, thus far, has been more of the same. Belisle has a high-80s fastball with good movement that’s capable of getting groundballs, a decent cutter, a good curveball with tight break, and an average change-up.

Last Year: Belisle made two starts against the Mets in 2007. In the first, he was great, locating his fastball perfectly to set up his curve. He went seven innings and allowed one run on nine hits and two walks while striking out six. In the second, things went sour quickly, as Belisle allowed three runs in the second and two more in the sixth before being removed with one out. It should be noted that he failed to strike out a single batter and made mistakes up in the zone to Carlos Beltran and Paul Lo Duca that resulted in homeruns.

What to Expect: If key for Matt Belisle’s success is location of the fastball. If he can hit the corners with the fastball and get ahead in the count, the curve is a good enough pitch to put righties away with. Unfortunately, too often he missed his spots and hits too much of the plate. He also struggles a little more against lefties, who will see more changeups and cutters than righties. So long as hitters are aggressive early in the count, Belisle shouldn’t be too difficult an obstacle.

Game 2: Bronson Arroyo, RHP

What’s the Story? After a great first season with the Reds in 2006, Arroyo signed a contract extension that will keep him in Cincinnati until 2010 with a combined $22.5 million owed to him over the next two seasons. His 2007 was decent, but a large step down from his 2006, and if he continues pitching like he has been in 2008, that contract could be an albatross for a rebuilding Reds team. His strikeout rate is slightly up this year, but his command hasn’t been as sharp: both his homerun and walk rates have deteriorated significantly. Arroyo throws a sinking fastball that hovers around 90, a good curve that he’ll alter the speed and break of, a fair slider, and a decent changeup.

Last Year: Arroyo faced the Mets once last season, at Shea, and pitched okay. He went seven innings and allowed just three runs and a walk. But he struck out only three and allowed a pair of solo homeruns to Jose Reyes and Ruben Gotay.

What to Expect: Arroyo’s coming off the shortest outing of his career, as he allowed seven runs to the Braves over an inning and a third. The Reds plan to examine him for injury before Saturday’s start, although Arroyo insists he’s 100% healthy. His big problem has been an inability to throw his breaking pitches for strikes, allowing hitters to sit on the heater. Unfortunately for Arroyo, if the breaking stuff is neutralized, he has little else to turn to, as the changeup just isn’t potent enough—the reason for his chronic difficulties against lefties.

Game 3: Johnny Cueto, RHP

What’s the Story? One of the Reds’ best prospects, Cueto announced his arrival to the big leagues with a splash; in his first major league start he went seven innings, allowed one run on one hit—a solo homer to Justin Upton—and struck out ten Diamondbacks while walking none. It was a tremendous debut that demonstrated what Cueto does well: strike batters out while walking very few. His second start was excellent, also (six innings and change, eight strikeouts, no walks), but it’s been an adventure ever since. The problem? Cueto puts a lot of balls in the air, making him particularly susceptible to the homerun—he’s allowed seven in 41 innings. Cueto’s a short righthander who throws a four-seam fastball in the low-to-mid 90s, plus an occasional two-seamer, a great slider, and a decent changeup he learned from the great Mario Soto.

Last Year: Cueto has never faced the Mets.

What to Expect: Cueto will aim for the corners with his fastball early in counts, preferring to work in on lefties and to the outside corner on righties. Against the latter, he’ll occasionally mix in changeups low in the zone. When he’s got two strikes on righties, he’ll turn to the slider, which generates a lot of swinging strikeouts. Cueto prefers to throw changeups out of the strike zone against lefties late in the count, hoping they’ll chase. In the end, Cueto will stay around the strike zone, and he’ll leave the ball up giving hitters a chance to drive the ball, if they connect.

Overall: I like the Mets’ chances in the first two games. While Pelfrey hasn’t looked especially sharp lately, neither has Belisle. Belisle likes to stay around the strike zone, and provided the Mets can jump on his fastball, they could hit him hard. The middle game is a monumental mismatch. As for the final game, Cueto’s weaknesses should be well-disguised in Shea Stadium—I’m picking the Reds to pull out the victory by a hair.