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May 5, 2008
   
Upcoming Series: Los Angeles Dodgers Pitchers
Gravatar by: Alex Nelson on May 5, 2008 12:54 AM | Filed under: Articles

After shocking the hell out of me by winning two out of three from a good Diamondbacks team, the Mets (16-13) can now look forward to playing baseball’s hottest team, the Los Angeles Dodgers (17-14), who had an eight-game winning streak snapped on Sunday. The Dodgers, under former Yankee manager Joe Torre, have a balanced team that have scored the third-most runs in the NL and have allowed the fourth-least. Like the Mets, the hitting attack has been almost completely punchless, as the team has hit only 20 homeruns this season—only the Nationals and Giants have hit fewer.

The Mets will throw Nelson Figueroa (2-1, 4.08), Oliver Perez (2-2, 4.03), and John Maine (3-2, 3.48) against Chad Billingsley (1-4, 5.20), Hiroki Kuroda (1-2, 3.82), and Dodgers staff ace Brad Penny (5-2, 3.19), respectively.

Game 1: Chad Billingsley, RHP

What’s the Story? For the Dodgers, there’s good news and bad news about Billingsley’s sophomore campaign so far. The good news is that he’s striking out a ton of batters, 40 in 27.3 innings, which would be the highest strikeout rate in the majors if he qualified. The bad news is he’s walking far too many, also, 5.53 per nine innings. If he can cut that rate to last year’s levels (3.92), or optimally a little below, the former top prospect would be an elite pitcher. As it is, he gifts too many runners first base and drives his pitch count too high, knocking himself out early in too many games. Billingsley’s got great stuff: a moving fastball that touches 96, a cutter, a fantastic hard curve, a very good slider, and a decent changeup.

Last Year: Billingsley has appeared in only one game against the Mets, a 1-2-3 seventh inning in relief last season.

What to Expect: Billingsley will use his fastballs and cutters to get ahead of hitters to set up those two great breaking pitches. That makes his ability to throw his fastball for strikes extremely important. If he can’t get ahead of hitters, he won’t be able to rely on the breaking stuff to get outs. Further development of a changeup would probably help him out tremendously, but, as of right now, it’s a pitch he’ll throw only a couple times a game, usually to lefties. Patience is definitely a key for Mets batters.

Game 2: Hiroki Kuroda, RHP

What’s the Story?After a distinguished career in Japan, the 33-year-old Kuroda made the jump to America, signing a three-year, $35-million contract with the Dodgers last offseason. The early returns are good, as Kuroda has shown good control and an ability to get groundouts in the early going. He’s not a true strikeout pitcher, and I doubt he’ll ever be one at this point, but he does have a better-than-average repertoire. His fastball will touch 95 and mostly sits around 91-92, and his forkball is a good out-pitch that batters will either miss or pound into the ground. He’ll also throw a good slider in the low-80s, and a fair shuuto, a fastball that cuts down and in on righties.

Last Year: Kuroda has never faced the Mets.

What to Expect: It’s tough to know exactly what to expect out of Kuroda, since the Mets haven’t seen him pitch yet. He seems to throw a ton of fastballs, and he can locate the pitch to either side of the plate well. Unlike a lot of Japanese pitchers, he seems to do a good job elevating the pitch when necessary to change the batter’s plane of sight. He’ll throw a good amount of sliders also, while saving the forkball for when he needs it most—strikeout and double play opportunities. He’s not just a junkballer, so it’ll pay to be aggressive with his fastballs and not let him get ahead.

Game 3: Brad Penny

What’s the Story? Penny had a great season in 2007, going 16-4 with a 3.03 ERA while staying healthy the whole season, but the Dodgers should be wary: his strikeout rate hit a new low (135 in 208 innings), and his walk rates was nothing special, either (73 walks). He thrived by keeping the ball inside the park at a phenomenal rate (just nine homeruns allowed), something he’ll need to continue to do in 2008. What’s particularly scary is that he’s not a groundball machine; about a third of all his balls in play are flies. Penny’s got a low-to-mid-90s four seam fastball with life, plus a two-seamer, a great splitter, a very good slow curve, and an average change.

Last Year: Penny made three starts against the Mets in 2007, going 2-1 with a 3.26 ERA over 19.3 innings while striking out 14 and walking six. His best start came on June 13, when he allowed one run on seven hits and no walks. He struck out seven. His other two starts were pretty average. Over his career, he’s 5-11 with a 5.66 ERA against the Mets.

What to Expect: Penny will mostly live on his fastball and curve and split; the changeup’s just for show. He’ll pound the lower strike zone with two-seamers, but he’ll also work up in the zone with the hard stuff. He has two pitches he can turn to for outs, the curve to righties, and the split to hitters on both sides of the plate. Mets batters need to be careful, because he can throw the curve for strikes, so they’ll probably see a few curves in fastball situations, too.

Overall: I must be drunk on the victory over the Diamondbacks on Sunday afternoon, but I’m picking the Mets to take two out of three. I like Figueroa in the opener despite the Mets not having seen Billingsley before. I just think the Mets will thrive on his inability to throw strikes. I absolutely believe Kuroda will best the Mets in Game 2, but the Mets will hit Penny hard the next day, while Maine finally throws that gem I’ve been waiting for.


Alex is a raving lunatic whose work can be found regularly here at Mets Geek. He welcomes comments and criticisms at kingblackfish@yahoo.com.

9 Responses to “Upcoming Series: Los Angeles Dodgers Pitchers”

  1. Comment posted by Tim in LA on May 5, 2008 at 5:19 am (#681001)

    What’s the difference between a shuuto and a cutter?

  2. Comment posted by Jessica on May 5, 2008 at 8:06 am (#681004)

    If I’m not mistaken, Penny tends to pitch terribly at Shea but quite well against the Mets at his home park.

  3. Gravatar
  4. Comment posted by Alex Nelson on May 5, 2008 at 8:14 am (#681006)

    If I’m not mistaken, Penny tends to pitch terribly at Shea but quite well against the Mets at his home park.

    Stop ruining my optimism, Jess!

  5. Gravatar
  6. Comment posted by Alex Nelson on May 5, 2008 at 8:16 am (#681007)

    What’s the difference between a shuuto and a cutter?

    A shuuto has more downward action than a cutter. It’s been described as a combination cutter/sinker/slider, but it moves faster than a slider, and the break isn’t as pronounced.

  7. Comment posted by Danny on May 5, 2008 at 9:28 am (#681031)

    Sweep time. I feel it in my loins.

  8. Gravatar
  9. Comment posted by Simons on May 5, 2008 at 11:24 am (#681197)

    Me too. In my own loins, I mean, not… well, you know.

  10. Gravatar
  11. Comment posted by Lunkwill Fook on May 5, 2008 at 12:46 pm (#681295)

    I dunno. Danny’s loins feel like a sweep to me.

  12. Comment posted by Lister on May 5, 2008 at 3:57 pm (#681653)

    (There’s an ugly older woman with gigantic breasts sitting next to me in the stacks.)

  13. Comment posted by mr.bmc on May 5, 2008 at 11:04 pm (#682173)

    The Mets have never faced rookie Billingsley.

    Willie doesn’t believe in scouting a guy they’ve never seen.

    A + B = shutout

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