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May 2, 2008
  
Upcoming Series: Arizona Diamondbacks Pitchers
by: Alex Nelson on May 2, 2008 1:20 AM | Filed under: Articles

After the worst trouncing of the year, the Mets (14-12) can now look forward to the Arizona Diamondbacks (20-8). I don’t know how many would have guessed that the Diamondbacks would be the majors’ first team to 20 wins, but there they are. Before the season, I was worried about their offense, which, considering where they played half their games, was terrible last season. This year? They rank behind only Chicago. The biggest difference-makers have been a hot start from Conor Jackson (171 OPS+) and the emergence of Justin Upton (136 OPS+), who has a chance to become something truly special. On the pitching side, the trio of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and Micah Owings have combined to go 14-1 with a 2.80 ERA, which stands 55% better than the adjusted league average.

And guess what? The Mets will face all three this weekend. John Maine (2-2, 3.58) gets Owings tonight (4-0, 3.48), Mike Pelfrey (2-1, 4.43) opposes Webb (6-0, 1.98) Saturday, and Johan Santana (3-2, 3.12) faces Haren (4-1, 3.13) in the finale.

Game 1: Micah Owings, RHP

What’s the Story? Owings had a very encouraging rookie campaign in 2007, going 8-8 with a respectable 4.30 ERA. While his strikeout rate was nothing special, he posted solid walk and homerun rates, though both could stand mild improvements. This year, he’s off to a phenomenal start, as his strikeout rate is up to nearly a batter per inning. If he can stay healthy and continue pitching as he has been, he’ll give the Diamondbacks a devastating 1-2-3 combo anchoring their rotation. Owings throws a low-90s fastball with fair movement, a good changeup, and a decent slider. A deceptive delivery makes it quite difficult for hitters to pick up on the pitch. He’s also the best hitting pitcher in baseball, a guy who should not be taken lightly at the plate.

Last Year: Owings made one start against the Mets last season, almost a year to the date, and went six innings and gave up three runs on four walks and five hits while striking out five.

What to Expect: Owings’s principal weapon is his command of the fastball, and he’ll feed hitters lots of them low and away. If he gets two strikes on a hitter, he’ll occasionally elevate it to get the strikeout. His slider will mostly be reserved as an out-pitch against righties—it’s not an effective enough pitch otherwise—although he’ll throw both off-speed pitches against first pitch fastball hitters. The changeup won’t be used too often late in the count, other than to set up the heater.

Game 2: Brandon Webb, RHP

What’s the Story? The 2006 Cy Young Award winner has been unbeatable in 2008. I mean that literally: he has made six starts and won them all. Webb’s a groundball machine who can get strikeouts, something the league hasn’t really seen since Kevin Brown’s heyday. Last season, Webb’s walk rate increased substantially—a possible red flag—but considering his strengths, it hasn’t been a big deal yet. Webb’s got a low-90s sinker, a very good slow curve, and an above average changeup. He’s a tough pitcher to face.

Last Year: Webb made two starts against the Mets. The Mets got to him in Arizona during the first, and he allowed six runs over six innings, walking four and striking out thee while giving up a rare homerun to Shawn Green. Of course, he dominated them at Shea in his next start, throwing eight innings of four-hit ball, striking out eight and walking one.

What to Expect: Webb will throw a ton of fastballs—almost 80 percent of the time, in fact. The curve is a surprising weapon, almost an afterthought to hitters, and to make matters worse, he’ll throw it on any count. He’s more likely to throw the changeups to lefties, usually to set up the fastball. Webb’s a tough opponent, but patient hitters can give him trouble. If you can lay off the fastballs below the strike zone, he’ll be forced to elevate his pitches, giving hitters a window to drive the ball.

Game 3: Dan Haren, RHP

What’s the Story? Haren came over to the Diamondbacks in a blockbuster offseason trade designed to provide Arizona with the NL’s best rotation, a move that has done just that thus far. He’s an outstanding pitching who can rack up strikeouts while demonstrating very good control. Haren’s got a good fastball that sits around 92, and he complements it with a devastating splitter he’ll throw in the mid-80s. He’ll also throw a decent curveball and an average changeup.

Last Year: As an AL resident, Haren did not face the Mets in 2007. He made his only start against them in 2005, when he threw seven innings of two-run, two-walk, eight-strikeout baseball.

What to Expect: The real challenge for hitters is to resolve the at-bat without getting to strike two. At that point, he’ll unleash the splitter, an incredible pitch that will almost always result in either a groundout or a strikeout as the hitter swings over it. The curve gives him a third weapon against righties, though he’ll throw it occasionally to a lefty also. The change is really a “show me” pitch. The scariest thing about Haren is that he’s capable of throwing all his pitches for strikes, though he’s prone to nibbling when he misses the corner.

Overall: This is a tall order for any team. The Diamondbacks have been the league’s best team, featuring a potent offense and tremendous starting pitching. You can get to their bullpen, but, considering that Webb and Haren are both durable pitchers capable of going deep into games, there might not be much of an opportunity. I’m picking the Mets to lose two of three, with Santana salvaging Sunday.


2 Responses to “Upcoming Series: Arizona Diamondbacks Pitchers”

  1. Comment posted by Danny on May 2, 2008 at 8:52 am (#677282)

    At least we miss Scherzer. We know he would dominate us with our first look at him.

    I remember not being that impressed with Owings in his start against the Mets last year. But he’s been rather terrific otherwise.

    I also like the Mets to take 1 of 3. Maybe the Mets will actually score runs for Santana this time, or the bullpen won’t blow his lead. The parallels so far to Santana 2008 and Pedro 2005 are rather troubling in terms of how the team under-performs whenever their ace is on the mound.

  2. Comment posted by mr.bmc on May 2, 2008 at 11:22 am (#677420)

    Sure the snakes are 20-8. But who did that come against? Here’s Arizona’s record against:
    CIN 1 2 11 11 .333
    COL 5 1 43 23 .833
    HOU 2 1 17 16 .667
    LAD 4 1 32 23 .800
    SDP 4 2 37 22 .667
    SFG 4 1 25 14 .800

    There’s only two decent teams among that lot and neither of them is in the class of the Mets (on paper).

    I like John Maine in the warm weather against Owings. I think Johan is gonna get knocked around a bit but still best Haren.

    Mets take two.

    The glass is half full.

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