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April 29, 2008
Minor League Notes, 4/29/08
If you have been reading some of my work pertaining to the Mets since I joined Flushing University in February of 2007, you probably are under the impression that I am devoted to the cause of elaborating on my Willie Randolph conspiracy theories. But while media junkie James Bowman might disagree—one man’s poison is another man’s lunch—I believe my “conspiracy-laden” columns actually reflect a reality that all Mets fans should be aware of. And I am beginning to slightly doubt my success in educating fans. In a recent poll over at MetsBlog, a whooping thirty-five percent believe that the Mets should promote Mike Carp at this very moment. Another sixteen percent say that they are willing to sacrifice what the average fan would assume to be B-grade prospects to acquire a new first baseman, ultimately relegating Carlos Delgado to the point where Endy Chavez’s status as a grossly overplayed bench player would pale in comparison to Delgado. Maybe these fans’ sentiments are simply a case of a “Flavor of the Week”—after all, the poll came out shortly after Randolph proudly pronounced during an interview on WFAN that he likes young players because “you can mold them” and “you can teach them how to play winning baseball.” Never mind the fact that, by the time Randolph believes he has molded his younger players into “winning players,” a cliché he cherishes as much as any manager in the game, monarchy will have been completely overthrown in Britain. It is, perhaps, the most transparent use of deception I have seen myself. But I have some other ideas in stark contradiction to some of my past columns. I believe the veteran loyalty conspiracy theory has become so commonplace that, in one respect, it has denigrated the intelligence of fans, as the standard has now been set so very low when it comes to accusing Randolph of bias towards older players. For one, there is scant empirical evidence that Carp’s gains this year are substantial or meaningful. For instance, his plate discipline this year (0.55 BB/K), is very closely in line with his career minor league numbers (0.45 BB/K). In defense of Carp, his plate discipline was much improved in August of last year (13% walk rate, 14.5% strikeout rate). More importantly, Carp’s performance against left-handers is an even more vexing problem for the Mets. He hit just .174/.211/.211 in 109 at-bats vs. southpaws last year. To his credit, Carp has an 1.102 OPS against lefties this year and is slowly learning to go with the pitch and hit it the other way, a la Ryan Church. Carp, however, appears far more effective against left-handers when they are throwing fastballs—and not the tailing breaking ball that big league pitchers would surely pound him with. Not to mention, we are trying to draw conclusions from a very small sample size (35 at-bats). And that brings us to Carlos Delgado’s performance as of late. His meager 50 OPS+ does not capture the enormity of how slow or out of place his swing has looked recently. Yet, while Carp will likely see a sharp decline in his numbers this year, given his extremely high BABIP (.446), Delgado should see some improvement in the coming weeks, as his BABIP (.238) is far below his estimated number of .330 and his homerun-per-outfield fly rate is outlandishly low thus far (4.5%). An improvement in both numbers wouldn’t surprise me. Still, we should not be taking Delgado’s likely improvement for granted either. As Keith Hernandez has mentioned quite a few times over the last few weeks, Delgado might be reaching the point where he is going to have to re-invent himself by becoming more of a prototypical number six or seven contact hitter with limited power, similar to some of the adjustments Shawn Green made right before coming to Shea. Yeah, Delgado might not be Derek Jeter when it comes to carefully crafting his quotes, and maybe he smiles a bit too much for an underperforming player earning eight figures, but it would probably behoove Mets fans to stop the “Free Mike Carp” campaign and give Delgado some time to refine his game. I’ve come to learn that when such a highly touted prospect has bumped up to elite prospect status, there is a certain urge to get him up to the big leagues as quickly as possible, but with Carp, the my sense of reason tells me to hold back. Of course, don’t call me a hypocrite when I’m calling for Delgado’s head in June. More Thoughts Sorry—this spot is usually reserved for some quick minor league notes, but with not much brewing down on the farm I thought I would comment on Matt Cerrone’s decision to remove the Willie Randolph approval rating from his site, coincidentally after his positive rating dipped to forty-one percent. My colleague John Peterson was the first to alert me to the polls sudden disappearance, and afterwards there has been a widespread consensus that SNY, owned by the Willie-friendly Wilpons, had influenced Cerrone’s decision. Cerrone responded last Friday with the following explanation:
To be honest, I myself never put too much faith in these polls either, considering their propensity to fluctuate, but the fact is they represent a large portion of the mainstream fans’ opinions. At the same time, I am highly skeptical that SNY did not have a role in this. I respect Cerrone’s work and the heavy workload he must have to provide us with news and analysis, but I am curious: if Cerrone believes that the Randolph poll reflected the rapidly changing standings and not actual opinion, then why is he willing to run so many other polls at the beginning of the season? If the Randolph poll apparently has little validity to it, then what about the Mike Carp poll I cited earlier? Is it not premature to question the weight of a poll, when I wrote today Delgado is grossly underperforming, and Carp vice-versa? Is it possible that emotions are riding a bit too high barely a month into the season? Personally, I hope I’m wrong. Around the Minors
Matt is a disgruntled, statistically- and politically-obsessed teenager and appreciates all words of encouragement at: matthimelfarb@gmail.com. You can also check out his blog: matthimelfarb.wordpress.com. 11 Responses to “Minor League Notes, 4/29/08”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Cerrone also pulled a post with the YouTube circulated video of Joe Smith cursing out a fan at Wrigley, supposedly after being leaned on by SNY. Daily News and some other rag wrote about it as well. I mean, who didn’t think Metsblog was going to become a wing of the Wilpon Machine after they partnered with SNY? Most Met fans may be a little slow on the uptake, but no matter how one-sided Cerrone tried to paint this partnership, it doesn’t take an MBA from Wharton to realize what the business realities are.
In all fairness though, a yes/no approval poll on Willie is entirely too knee-jerk and should be on a 1-10 scale like the fan confidence votes. You can’t blame SNY for being slightly frightened by the power of Metsblog either. The crowd cannot be allowed to rule the team by fiat, regardless of how incompetent the easily swayed masses may believe the administration to be.
SNY is not the YES Network, and they are smart to keep at least some amount of leash on Metsblog. Cerrone has turned Metsblog into his career, so it would’ve been crazy for him not to take what is likely a very profitable partnership from SNY, especially with them leaving him a lot of freedom with the site.
Also, I voted they leave Delgado in, at least until the break. Carp isn’t the answer yet, and may not be ever.
Carp should be promoted soon, but to AAA.
I like Carp and he may yet turn into a very good major league player. I think everyone’s frustration with Delgado this year should really be directed at Omar. We all knew that Delgado’s performance fell markedly last year and there was every reason to believe that that trend would continue this year - and, no surprise, it has.
Omar in his great wisdom, decided not to pursue a complementary first baseman for the team - and there are many who couldn’t find big league contracts late into the winter. So now all of us have to debate the merits of calling up a 21 year old who is not ready for the role (still could you imagine Carp doing worse than Delgado thus far?).
The team has many issues and one big one is a weak .200 hitting bad glove first baseman (who won’t even help himself or the team out by bunting or peppering the ball to the 3rd base side when the defense all but begs him to do so).
Maybe the better debate (than bringing up Carp for Delgado) is a more realistic alternative. Because Omar left the team so unprepared for poor production at first base, should the Mets now make a trade for someone who could fill that role (and more). The tea leaves seem to be aligning into a potential move (that like many Omar has made focus on the now at the expense of the future).
Should we trade Mike Carp either straight up or with another prospect for Xavier Nady? Nady could play a big role at first base until the end of the year and he could also provide insurance in LF assuming Alou’s health keeps him from playing 100 games this year. Next year Nady could be the permanent LF while the team goes after a bona fide first baseman like Mark Texiera.
Despite another move which might cash in our young prospects for moderately old/somewhat better than average players, this one might make sense and “time is a ticking away”. I say if Delgado hasn’t found his stroke by mid-May, make the deal if it’s available.
If you think trading Carp and whatever other prospect you choose (not named Fernando Martinez) will nail you Nady, you may be as delusional as Omar. But I applaud that you dream big!
Really? The rumor is Heilman straight up for Nady (with Heilman taking a starters role for the Bucs).
If you were Huntington would you rather have (1) Heilman or (2) Carp and Neise (whom I really wouldn’t want to trade) or Evans?
While Nady’s having a somewhat better year in 2008 (thus far), he’s still a fairly average outfielder (29 years old with a career .800 OPS) being paid somewhat over league average ($3.35mm vs $2.8mm).
Exactly how much do you think he’s worth in your delusional world?
I keep meaning to comment on that poll removal comment, but what can I say? Even if Cerrone wasn’t “pressured” by SNY about it, he is heavily biased in his decision to remove it by his desire not to upset SNY. The poll was fine when it was high, but now that it’s low suddenly its lack of scientific accuracy is a problem? Let the thing play out. Maybe it levels off.
Omar made the decision to stick with Delgado this year back when he first brought him here. There’s just no way that he was going to spend money on a potential replacement for his $16 million first baseman until he absolutely, positively had no choice. I mean, having failed to sign the guy as a free agent, he paid in talent for the right to take on a contract at the same price minus the first year, which, at Delgado’s age, he had to have presumed to be the most productive and thus cost effective of the deal.
The thing is that there are suddenly four potential long-term solutions at 1B in the organization. For a franchise with a very thin farm system - one without a single middle-infielder that’s even close to the bigs - you have three guys at AAA, Carp, Evans, Murphy, and one guy in high A - Lucas Duda - who are all acting like legit 1B prospects. None of them, of course, are ready for prime time.
Mike Carp should probably spend all of this year and all of next year in the minors learning to be a more complete hitter, and from the little I know, the other two probably should as well. This presents a timing issue for the club. Do you go out next year and sign a big-time 1B for lots of money, thereby assuring that there is no path to the bigs for any of your four prospects? Omar’s history says that you probably do. And if he’s heading in that direction, there’s no sense keeping them all and we will likely see two of them gone by trading deadline 2009, and very possibly sooner than that if the decision comes down on Delgado this season.
Hey Matt–
Thanks for the article. While I agree that it´s too early to call up Carp (though I think he should be tried at AAA), I´m in favor of keeping our eyes open for trade possibilities.
One thing– when quoting 2007 stats on Carp, you made no mention of his injuries last year. In light of those, an additional 2006 comparison would have been useful.
CORRECTION: I meant, of course, that you have three guys in AA (not AAA) who look like they may be long-term 1B prospects.
davidg, it has nothing to do with I think he’s worth. You forget one basic truth. The Pirates are not looking to trade Nady. They don’t have to. Therefore, they have the upper hand. The Pirates know the Mets are desperate for a firstbase man/ right handed bat. The news on Alou’s imminent return seems a bit dire and adds to the Mets “desperation.”. I suspect the Pirates read the papers and they know this. If you’re the Pirates and your holding the cards, you ask for the stars. You may settle for the moon, but you ask for the stars. Aaron Heilman could be the moon, whether we all currently like him or not he has proved over several season that he can pitch in the majors. Carp, Evans, Murphy and whoever else we care to mention have proved nothing. Having career years in AA after a month hardly qualifies them for anything.
That was my point.
That’s not what I’ve read- they are looking to move him to play Pearce. Their new GM does not have the same bizarre Nady fascination that his predecessor did.