Anyone who has the slightest inclination to start their own baseball website, particularly one that focuses in on prospects, should probably be aware of one thing: rankings click. I myself have had an unhealthy obsession with them that began somewhere around my ninth birthday, and it is easy to see why; they are relatively easy to put together, generate rigorous discussion and debate, and unlike Miss South Carolina last year, you can share your thoughts on a subject you obviously feel passionately about without having to conceal the fact you are half-illiterate.

But, as one of my favorite websites in the Prospect Ranking industry—Project Prospect—taught me last year, when an afterthought like Josh Hamilton can jump over the consensus top prospect, Alex Gordon, after one torrid week, you had best stop clinging to rankings and consider the volatility of numbers early in the baseball season.

Don’t think that does not apply to our “kids” too.

Starting all the way down in low-A Savannah, right hander Scott Moviel is a scout’s dream. At six-foot-ten-inches and 245 pounds, Moviel’s low-90s fastball is easily projectable, as are the rest of his offerings: an above average curveball, and a rarely seen yet potentially solid changeup. Despite his height, Moviel showed surprisingly solid command with the GCL Mets last year (6.2% BB/BF).

This year, the 19-year-old has put up freakishly league average stats (17.0% K/BF, 8.5% BB/BF). What exactly is the problem? An 8.38 ERA. Fortunately, Moviel appears to be a pretty level-headed kid and pitched rather smoothly in his last start (3.1 IP, 5 K, 3 BB). Of course, it would probably help his confidence if he understood the logistics behind his .471 BABIP and 3.10 FIP.

Next, we take a further ride down south into the pitcher-friendly confines of St. Lucie, Florida. There, we take a look at the Mets rotation, which reflects the paradox that usually comes during election season in Florida: wildly unpredictable, if a bit smudged. From the get-go in Brooklyn in last year, it appeared as though college products Dillon Gee (22.4% K/BF, 3.6% BB/BF, 2.61 FIP), and Dylan Owen (24.7% K/BF, 4.3 BB/BF, 2.24 FIP), would have some friendly competition between them.

Both pitchers have a propensity to attack the zone, yet Gee appears to have the upper-hand as far as stuff is concerned. Owens has an above average 90-93 mph fastball that has added a tick or two and some improved sink under the Mets’ tutelage. He also has a plus slider and a “lollipop” curveball that figures to become less effective as he moves up the minor league ladder.

Gee, on the other hand, has a somewhat higher ceiling. Armed with solid four-seam and two-seam fastballs that have lots of movement, a really good curveball, and an average slider, Owens has some catching up to do. Why then, with their eerily similar peripherals (Gee: 23.2% K/BF, 8.9% BB/BF; Owen: 18.8% K/BF, 7.8% BB/BF) this year, does Owens boast a 1.69 ERA while Gee’s is sitting at 6.23? You can bet Gee’s .371 BABIP has something to do with that,

On the offensive end, Raul Reyes has quietly accumulated at least one hit in eight of the last ten ballgames. There is nothing to cry or light fireworks about with his .298/.327/.468 line this year, so what is the issue? Consider the fact that his .419 BABIP is only so ludicrous in itself when his 6% LD% gives him an expected BABIP of .180. Reyes might be able to survive with his power projection while flailing away at the breaking ball this year in Savannah, but will likely follow suit of Brahiam Maldonado—better known as “El Toro,” whose terrible plate discipline last year (0.24 BB/K ratio) has caught up to him thus far in St. Lucie (.185/.241/.241).

Notes

• Speaking of Raul Reyes, the twenty-one year old was placed on the DL with a fractured ankle and will be replaced by outfielder Brandon Kawal, who hit .302/.352/.362 for with Brooklyn last year.
• Jamar Hill has finally been placed on the DL after being hit near the left ear by the once promising prospect Ben Fritz on April 11th, which left a nasty gash. He has not played since.
• The Mets’ earliest high-school draftee last year, southpaw Nathan Vineyard, struggled mightily in his first two starts before hitting the DL himself with a left shoulder strain.

Around the Minors

• One last case of sample size craziness for the road: Cameron Maybin is hitting .294/.431/.510 in 51 at-bats with AA Carolina so far. A .500 BABIP might have something to do with that.
• The San Francisco Giants have reached the maximum level as far as being desperate: Infielder Emmanuel Burris, who hit a combined .278/.336/.325 between A-ball and AA last year, and is now hitting .258/.281/.206 in AAA this year, is getting the call to the big leagues.
• Rays fans do not have to commit Harry Caray after Jacob McGee missed his last start. Just a sore forearm. The twenty-one year old has a 2.77 ERA and 29.6% K/BF with AA Montgomery this year but, as usual, has struggled with his command (13.0% BB/BF).
• Yankees catching prospects Austin Romine (.364/.383/.455) and Jesus Montero (.324/.352/.485) are playing excellent as of late, with Romine going 18 for his last 34 (.529) with six straight multi-hit games.