Well, the Mets (5-6) couldn’t take out the Brewers over the weekend to climb above .500, so they’ll try picking on someone much, much smaller: the Washington Nationals (4-9). The Nats won their first three games, but then proceeded to lose their next nine before snapping the streak on Sunday with a victory against Atlanta. Their offense is merely middle-of-the-road, though it’ll help if the team’s best player, Ryan Zimmerman, can start hitting. However, the pitching is truly atrocious, the worst in the league after the miserable Florida Marlins. The starters have been especially disappointing, going 2-8 with a 5.07 ERA while averaging just 5.5 innings per start. To boot, the Mets will be missing the team’s hottest starting pitcher, Tim Redding, who is off to a 2-1, 2.25 ERA start.

The Mets will be facing veteran Odalis Perez (0-2, 4.91), Matt Chico (0-2, 3.72), and John Lannan (0-2, 6.75), all southpaws. Mike Pelfrey (1-0, 3.60), John Maine (0-1, 4.50), and Nelson Figueroa (1-0, 4.50) will take the mound for the boys in blue and orange.

Game 1: Odalis Perez, LHP

What’s the Story? Once upon a time, Perez was a big Braves prospect, someone who was expected to contribute to a phenomenal young rotation that also included Kevin Millwood and Bruce Chen. Believe it or not, that was ten years ago, and in those ten years, he’s thrown more than 137 major league innings just three times, all of them between 2002 and 2004. In 2002 and 2004, he posted ERAs 26% better than average. In 2003, he was 11% worse than average. Injuries, not to mention ineffectiveness, have hampered him ever since. His fastball, which he’ll sometimes add some cut or sink to, tops off around 90 or 91 these days and is pretty straight. His curve is still a pretty good pitch, and his change is still pretty mediocre. Perez will throw strikes, and he doesn’t like to put runners on base if he can help it.

Last Year: As a member of the Kansas City Royals last season, Perez did not face the Mets. He did face the Mets as a Dodger in 2006 and allowed seven runs on eleven hits before being removed with two outs in the fourth inning.

What to Expect: Perez will throw a lot of fastballs and cutters, while mixing in the changeup. For the most part, he only turns to the curve when he really needs it, which is unfortunate because it’s probably a better pitch than the change. As I mentioned, Perez does have very good control, but that also means he’ll sit in the strike zone for most of the game, which makes him pretty hittable. However, he has been bothered by blisters so far this year, affecting his command over his fastball. He’ll leave the occasional heater or cutter up in the zone and out over the plate, a prime pitch for driving. Also, Perez has never been known for his endurance, so don’t expect him to go past the sixth.

Game 2: Matt Chico, LHP

What’s the Story? For the Nationals and their fans, there’s good news and bad news about Chico. The good news is that he was very badly rushed to the big leagues in 2007—he had pitched only 11 innings in Triple-A—and he didn’t get murdered. His ERA was 9% worse than you’d expect league-average pitcher to have at RFK, but, frankly, that’s a better result than I would have expected. The bad news is that I’m still not sure he’s any good. He allowed too many homeruns, too many walks, and he received too few strikeouts. His ratios in the minors were better, so there’s still hope, but at 25, time’s running out. This year, he’s reintroduced a high leg kick to his delivery, and supposedly his fastball is back in the low-90s (it was mostly in the mid-80s in 2007). He also has a good change, a decent slider, and an average slow curve.

Last Year: Chico made four starts against the Mets in 2007 and went 2-2 with a 6.20 ERA over 20.1 innings. He struck out eight, walked nine, and allowed two homers.

What to Expect: The big key for Chico is throwing his curve or slider for strikes. When he can get them over, hitters have to stay on their toes—otherwise, Chico’s relying on his curve-fastball combination the whole night, which is dangerous unless you’re Cole Hamels. To Chico’s credit, he will throw the changeup on any count, and Nationals management loves the poise he brings to the mound. Even when his command is iffy, he likes to go right at hitters. The key for Mets hitters is patience; Chico will make mistakes, and they just need to wait for them. He’ll also rack up his pitch count—only five times last season did he pitch into the seventh inning. It should be noted, however, he pitched eight innings for the first time in his career in his last start.

Game 3: John Lannan, LHP

What’s the Story? The Long Island native was the Nationals’ 11th round draft pick in 2005, and he moved very quickly through their system before hitting the majors late last season. He handled himself reasonably well, posting a 4.15 ERA, but, like Chico, he was probably rushed. I think optimally the Nationals wanted to give Lannan some more time in Triple-A Columbus, but an injury to Shawn Hill and Jay Bergmann’s implosion to start the season likely will require him to learn on the job. Lannan’s stuff isn’t great: he’s got a four-seam fastball that tops out at 89, a sinker, an above average change, and a decent curve. But, also like Chico, the organization likes his mentality on the mound.

Last Year: Lannan did make one start against the Mets last season, and I wasn’t terribly impressed. He allowed five runs over five and two-thirds innings before hitting his pitch count and having to be removed. He allowed eight hits and a walk and struck out just three batters. His sinker wasn’t particularly sharp either, as 12 of 23 balls in play were in the air.

What to Expect: The hope in Washington is that Lannan will develop into a middle-of-the-rotation innings-eater who can thrive by inducing groundouts. He might be able to do so, but he’ll need to do two things to be successful: he’ll need to hit the outside corner low in the zone with his sinker, and he’ll need to show a willingness to throw inside to right-handed hitters, something that’s very tough for soft-tossing lefties to do. He failed to do it against the Braves in his last start, and he paid the price, letting in six runs over four innings. I think he and pitching coach Randy St. Claire will go back to basics this time out, so expect a lot of fastball-change to the corners.

Overall: I have to be honest, it’s tough to not see a sweep here. That said, the Mets aren’t sharp yet, and they don’t exactly have their best pitchers on the mound this series, save John Maine. I think Pelfrey will put forth another encouraging performance—maybe that’s the optimism in me getting in the way—and the Mets will take the opener. I think Maine should have little problem besting Chico, who I can’t see having two straight starts that good. But while Figueroa had his day last week, Lannan’s homecoming will be this week’s story. Just a feeling. Two out of three.

As an aside, the Nationals are throwing three lefties against the Mets. Here’s a trivia question for you: when was the last time the Mets faced three southpaws from the same team consecutively?