After a move that startled the baseball expert community and all 500 Tampa Bay Rays fans and counting, General Manager Andrew Friedman took the bullet for his organization late in Spring Training:

“It’s one of the things of erring on the side of caution,” Friedman said. “It’s focusing on his development, first and foremost. And that was the decision we made in a vacuum, just focusing on Evan himself.”

Under the guise that either Longoria stands more to gain by starting by starting the year in AAA or that the Rays’ playoff hopes are extraordinarily bullish, Friedman and company, along with various other outlets, have managed to convince fans—all of whom by no means understand all the implications—that the Rays ownership’s Svengali-like cost-benefit approach is the best thing for their organization.

Still, I have little doubt that, no matter the motive, the Rays are making a terrible mistake by keeping Longoria in the wings.

Let’s start off with why Longoria belongs in the big leagues. It is true that the Rays have something to gain by promoting Longoria at a later date, giving him one less year of service time in the long run. But the Rays should not be sacrificing their playoff prospects for this, and you can be sure arbitration payments are an even larger concern.

Money-related issues aside, Longoria appears capable of making the transition to the big leagues with ease. While his line last year at AA and AAA may not be screaming the likes of Ryan Braun or David Wright, Longoria’s power numbers will only improve within time; his BB/K rate (0.76) in the International League last season was excellent, particularly considering how important plate discipline is for a player his age. His Isolated Power (.221) was among the top-five in the IL, the benefactor of a slew of extra-base hits.

Usually, fans would prefer to see an established veteran—à la Shawn Green—over a talented, young prospect. But when you consider the almost laughable disparity between Elliot Johnson and Evan Longoria—one an organizational player and the other arguably one of the top five prospects in the game—you can see why Rays fans, who have pinned all their hopes on the development of their young talent, see him as a beacon of hope for their franchise.

Of course, there is also the argument that Longoria’s possible promotion is dependent upon the Rays playoff hopes this year. Despite statistical projection systems, such as PECOTA, which projects the Rays to win 89 games this year, giving Rays fans more than a flare of hope for 2008, these systems also serve as a source of pessimism. As Keith Law recently noted, to achieve these lofty projections, the Rays would have to prevent over 200 runs fewer than in 2007.

Still, assuming things break right for the club next year, there is no reason to think they cannot make a serious push for the playoffs next year. They have three potential all-stars to show for in B.J. Upton, (.300/.385/.508) Carl Crawford, (.315/.354/.466) and Akinori Iwamura (.285/.357/.411) Catcher Dioner Navarro hit just .177/.238/.254 in the first half of last year, but rebounded in the second, hitting .285/.340/.475. Improved command should help James Shields (3.94 FIP 21.1% K/PA 4.1% BB/PA) ameliorate his HR rate (3.20), while Matt Garza (4.25 FIP 18.3% K/PA 8.7 BB/PA) and Edwin Jackson (4.97 FIP 17% K/PA 11.7 BB/PA) should all make substantial gains. And while any report on Scott Kazmir is accompanied by the words, “out indefinitely”, he is hoping to return to the mound as early as May 1st.

As far as competition in the AL East goes, the Red Sox appear as though they have solidified their spot as the best team in the division, yet the Yankees appear headed for an inexorable decline this year. So long as three quarters of the cast on Daily News Live are content with leaving Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen, the Bronx Bombers are unlikely to move him into the rotation, leaving Mike Mussina and Ian Kennedy, whose ability to keep hitters off-balance in the minors with his fastball-changeup combo might continue wearing off in the bigs, to fend for themselves. Yes, threesomes are always good, but unless you are run by baseball’s model hierarchy (Red Sox) and are willing to let Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Dustin Pedroia play an influential role in a world championship year, or your once traditionally minded organization taken over by a radical ideology that threatens to start three rookies on opening day (Cardinals), having three rookies (Philip Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy) in the starting rotation is demonstrated as a sign of weakness.

Outside of the division, the Seattle Mariners’ veteran-laden lineup should implode by the All-Star break, leaving the Cleveland Indians as the most credible threat to the Rays. Worse comes to worse, Longoria will end up cutting his teeth this year in the big leagues and be locked and ready to go by 2009.

Needless to say, the case for promoting Longoria would certainly behoove the Rays’ interests. Perhaps they are waiting to get more of a read on their pitching staff, among other facets, to see if they are truly a contender or a mere pretender before doing so. But by than, will it be too-little too-late?

Mets Minor leagues Notes

Well, the first few games of the minor league season have started, which means the dust has settled on where nearly everyone will spend at least the first few months of the season. I will not comment much on where the pitchers stand right now, considering most of the Mets affiliates, particulary in the lower levels, are letting two starters split the workload. Although it is interesting that Gavin Dlouhy, who I pegged as one of my breakout candidates last week, will not join fellow 19-year-olds Nathan Vineyeard and Scott Moviel in Savannah as of right now. The club instead optioned to keep the talented yet wildly inconsistent Julio Polanco, as well as 23 year-old Jacobo Nuguilis. Savannah is a very Latin-friendly town for many of the Mets prospects, though with Vineyard and Moviel there, I see no reason as to why Dlouhy should not be promoted either.

Elsewhere, it does not look as though Josh Thole, the Mets’ 13th round pick out of high school back in 2005, will see much action, with Lucas Duda manning first at St. Lucie. Thole is an excellent contact hitter, compiling a 1.07 BB/K ratio accompanied by a .371 OBP with Savannah last year, but he has little power. Therefore, he is well suited to play catcher, having shown an excellent arm at the position in 2006 with Kingsport. However, the Mets would like to give Sean McCraw, who split catching duties with Francisco Pena in Savannah last season, a full season behind the plate. McCraw split also saw some time in the outfield and hit a combined .268/.397/.364 between Savannah and St. Lucie last year.

It is also a wonder why third baseman Leivi Ventura is still in the organization. The 24 year-old hit .242/.310/.345 last year with Savannah after an excellent start; part of his downfall can possibly be attributed to troubles reported last June, in which Ventura was removed from the all-star team for disciplinary reasons and was known to have a strained relationship with the Sand Gnats former manager Tim Teufel. Why not take a flyer on J.R. Voyles at that point?

Game Highlights

A starter in college and in a short stint with Kingsport last year, Michael Antonini made his mark out of the bullpen with Brooklyn last year with his pinpoint control, but he got the opening night nod for the Sand Gnats on Thursday and threw six innings of shutout ball in their 2-0 win over Columbus … Binghamton defeated rival Trenton 2-0 that same day after Jonathon Niese threw five shutout innings and Mike Carp launched a HR into the right field stands off Chase Wright … Ryan Coultats’s pitching debut on Friday did not go as well as planned, giving up one run on five hits in two innings of work … New Orleans is off to a rocketing start, backed by infielder Argenis Reyes (.444 AVG) and outfielder Chris Aguila (.571) … Starters Dillon Gee and Dyon Owen dominated the headlines at Brooklyn last year, but it was Gee who enjoyed a solid debut Saturday, allowing just one run in five innings with six strikeouts, while Owen allowed two earned runs in five innings but took the loss against Vero Beach just the day before … Ruben Tejeda (.077) is off to an exorbitantly slow start at St. Lucie.