After a very disappointing series against the Braves that saw a rainout and the Mets’ two best pitchers losing, the Mets (2-3) now hold their first series at Shea as they face the 2007 NL East Champions, the Philadelphia Phillies (3-4). Like the Braves, the Phils feature a terrific lineup, anchored by infielders Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and reigning MVP Jimmy Rollins. It’s a team that’s going to hit, but will they pitch? The starting rotation is a weakness, though it should be improved with Brett Myers returning to the rotation after a year serving as the club’s closer. Will that be enough? Much depends on the development of Kyle Kendrick, the young sinkerballer who needs to show he’s no fluke despite the utter inability to accumulate strikeouts. The bullpen also needs to prove to be stable, as someone will need to pitch the innings Adam Eaton and Jamie Moyer can’t.

In this series the Phillies will throw Moyer (0-0, 7.36), Kendrick (1-0, 7.20), and Eaton (0-0, 3.52). Oliver Perez (1-0, 0.00), Mike Pelfrey (0-0, —), and John Maine (0-1, 9.00) stand in opposition.

Game 1: Jamie Moyer, LHP

What’s the Story? Father Time keeps on chugging, and so does the 45-year-old Jamie Moyer. At this point in his career—and really this has been the case now for about a decade—Moyer is the foremost practitioner of the Stu Miller school of pitching in today’s game. As Milt Pappas once said about Miller, “he had three speeds for his pitches: slow, slower, and slowest.” Moyer’s the same way. His “fastball” comes in around 81-83, his cutter around 80, his change at 75, and his curve at 67. Moyer has made a career of making the most of that assortment, changing speeds as well as anyone. He proved very durable last season, finishing less than an inning shy of his tenth 200+ inning season in the past eleven years—he had only two before he turned 35.

Last Year: Moyer made four starts against the Mets in 2007. For the most part, he pitched well against them. His worst start was his second of the year, when he took the loss after allowing four runs on seven hits and two walks over six innings. In the other three starts, he went at least six innings with two runs allowed each time.

What to Expect: Moyer’s going to throw a ton of changeups to the outside part of the plate, as he always does. He’ll throw them on any count, so hitters need to be cautious and never assume the fastball’s coming. The curve is mostly just for show and it’s his worst pitch, so Mets batters shouldn’t worry too much about that. Moyer’s command isn’t quite what it used to be, and his walk rate increased substantially last year. It wasn’t exactly bad, but a pitcher like Moyer has very little room for error to begin with.

Game 2: Kyle Kendrick, RHP

What’s the Story? Called up to the big leagues after Freddy Garcia predictably got injured, the 23-year-old Kendrick had a very successful rookie campaign, going 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA. Most importantly, he walked only 25 batters over 121 innings while maintaining a 52.4% groundball ratio. Because of that, he’s vital to the Phillies’ fortunes this year, as he gives the team a capable third pitcher to turn to after Cole Hamels and Myers. When he’s on, he’s a perfect fit for that bandbox, featuring a low-90s sinker, a good slider, and an average change.

Last Year: Kendrick made just one start against the Mets, on July 1 in Philadelphia. The Phillies won 5-3, largely due to the efforts of Kendrick, who threw 6 2/3 innings of two-run baseball. He wasn’t untouchable, however: he gave up six hits and three walks and failed to strike out a batter. It should be noted that his opponent that game was Mike Pelfrey, who allowed three runs over five innings.

What to Expect: Kendrick’s a classic sinkerball pitcher, meaning he’ll throw his fastball about two-thirds of the time to generate lots of groundball outs. When he gets ahead in the count, he’ll throw the slider to righties and his change to lefties. He does struggle against the latter, who have hit .321/.374/.549 against him over the course of his career. It should also be noted that he’s also liable to leave the occasional ball up in the zone for hitters to drive; he allowed 45 extra base hits last season in just 121 innings.

Game 3: Adam Eaton, RHP

What’s the Story? The Phillies signed the oft-injured Eaton to a three-year deal worth $24 million before last season, a deal that sounded completely ridiculous the moment it was announced. Well, who’s laughing now? Actually, everybody else (except the Mets) is still laughing, because Eaton threw only 161 innings and went 10-10 with a terrible 6.21 ERA. Eaton’s got good stuff—a low 90s fastball with some movement, a very good hard curve, a decent changeup, and a fair slider—but he’s one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He gives up plenty of homers, can’t strike out a soul, walks too many, and doesn’t pitch deep into games.

Last Year: Eaton is a different pitcher when he takes the mound against the Mets. He made four starts against them last season, and he went 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA. The Mets must be catching up: over his career the numbers are 5-0 and a 2.68 ERA. In fact, his worst start against them was his last—he was knocked out with two outs in the fifth inning after allowing five runs on seven hits and two walks (the Mets lost the game anyway). Maybe a trend is forming.

What to Expect: Eaton has the stuff to perform better, but he just can’t seem to put things together. The easy answer is a lack of command. He has trouble hitting the corners, often missing the zone or throwing a fat pitch down the pipe instead. Another big problem is that Eaton has a tendency to fall in love with his fastball. It’s a good pitch, but he throws it too often (about two-thirds of the time) for a guy who has three other pitches, particularly when he’s ahead in the count. Hitters need to be patient with Eaton and wait for him to make a mistake.

Overall: It’s tough to pick the Mets to take this series. The offense doesn’t seem to be clicking right now, and the Phils do have Eaton pitching, which is an automatic win. I like Oliver in the opener, but the Phillies definitely have the advantage in the middle game. Thus, I’m only picking one out of three. Let’s hope I’m as wrong about this series as I was about the last.