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April 1, 2008
Minor League Notes, Preseason Edition
Hypocrites. Pure, unvarnished hypocrites. That is the only way of describing the outpouring of support from various outlets for Ruben Gotay, after it was learned that he was placed on waivers in favor of either Fernando Tatis and Brady Clark. Of course, people from all circles have—and will—denounce Omar and company for keeping Brady Clark, a decent OBA guy with little power (or as things originally appeared, Tatis, someone who hasn’t enjoyed a good season since Benny Agbayani was playing stateside), a solid OBP guy with little power, while cutting ties with Gotay. They are and will be baffled by the fact that Gotay, in limited spring training action, managed to compile over a .900 OPS with a concomitant ankle injury, while Clark’s was a mere .681. The issue is with Gotay’s comments, which were short but somewhat mind-boggling by baseball’s standards: “I did a good job and I didn’t deserve this.” Yes, a young player frustrated by gratuitous lack of playing time he has received. We have seen this act before, namely by one Lastings Milledge, in a story by SI.com’s John Donovan in late February:
Even if that Milledge comment reminds you of some spoiled imbecile on the MTV show My Super Sweet Sixteen, he is speaking out against the playing time he was wrongfully denied from Shawn Green, Marlon Anderson, and David Newhan throughout the last season. Just like Gotay. Not surprisingly, Big Media had a frenzy of, “I told you so’s” following Milledge’s comments, but what about Ryan Church’s past comments in the Washington Post, astutely documented by Capitol Punishment?
Metsblog, without a doubt the foremost authority on Mets-related news, failed to report that one, along with countless other Mets sites and blogs. The same Metsblog that was applauded for their equivocal response at the time Milledge was dealt, applauded because they were either historically myopic when evaluating Milledge’s potential, or applauded because they find it hard to be impartial with their links to SNY and the front-office. Than we have Gotham Baseball, a week after Milledge made those absolutely startling comments, likening Milledge to a “tech stock in the late nineties just before the bubble burst.” This, despite the fact that Church has made the same, if not more elaborate, comments than Milledge has. Folks, my biggest gripe here is that Big Media is trying to establish some sort of behavioral norm here, but it’s acting somewhat hypocritical in how they apply it, establishing a different standard for guys like Gotay and Church than for Milledge. In doing so, they’re demonstrating some personal antipathy towards Milledge—you can provide your own reason—and a simple lack of knowledge concerning prospect evaluation. Despite Big Media’s obsession with Ruben Gotay over the past few days, that still does not mean he didn’t receive the raw end of the stick here. His production suffered down the stretch last year, hitting just .189/.262/.270 in August and .200/.333/.367 in September, due largely to the fact he was not playing consistently. He still managed to equal Luis Castillo’s offensive production (.733 OPS, .328 wOBA), posting a .767 OPS on the year with a .331 wOBA. His .359 BABIP, while extremely high on the surface, was very close to his expected BABIP of .365, a result of his excellent line drive rate (24.5%), something a hitter retains control over. His defense, while always suspect, was certainly not much worse than Castillo’s. As bench players, Tatis and Clark are there to provide depth, which is what makes the move all the more puzzling. Caleb Stewart, after a blistering May, (.364/.407/.589) fell of the radar last year, hitting .252/.314/.400 with an 0.35 BB/K ratio, yet both he and Jamar Hill, (.300/.343/.459) spent last season with Binghamton and appear somewhat close to major league ready. On the other hand, Anderson Hernandez appears to be the most experienced minor league infielder they have, and after that, the pickings are slim. Daniel Murphy, (.285/.338/.430) is a third baseman who spent last year with St. Lucie working on his defense, and his season in Double-A should determine if he’s really major league caliber. Meanwhile, Matt Bouchard and Jake Eigstein have much to prove in A-ball this year if they want to get rid of the “future utility infielder” tag. Gotay—like Milledge—knows he was cheated out by a media-driven, veteran-loyal Mets organization, which is what makes the situation all the more frustrating for all of us. Anyway, on to our regularly scheduled minor league content: 2008 Breakout Candidates With the minor league season set to kick off in a few days, I thought I would provide a short blurb on my top five breakout candidates for 2008, in no particular order: 1. Nick Carr: A late-round draftee back in 2006, Carr burst onto the scene with Brooklyn last year, posting a 3.80 ERA, while leading the Cyclones club with a 26.1% strikeout rate. His fastball has been clocked in the mid 90’s with some nice sink on it, and his slider has the potential to be a deadly out-pitch. Between Nathan Vineyeard, Gavin Dlouhy, Philips Orta, and Scott Moviel, Carr will have plenty of competition in the lower minors and could be headed to St. Lucie to start 2008. 2. Jacob Ruckle: Perhaps the most unfairly handled pitcher inside the organization, Ruckle is famous for being demoted to Brooklyn for business reasons in 2006 after posting a 1.60 ERA in St. Lucie that year, now known as the infamous “Ruckle Shuffle.” After being shuffled once again between the bullpen and the rotation last year, Ruckle still managed to post a 3.48 ERA in his second stint with St. Lucie accompanied by a miniscule walk rate (4.2%). Still, the Binghamton bullpen looks like the likely destination for Ruckle next year. 3. Gavin Dlouhy: A surprise signing out of Australia in 2006, Dlouhy impressed with his splitter at MLB’s Gold Coast Academy and posted a 2.49 ERA with the GCL Mets last year to go along with a terrific 34.7% strikeout rate. Look for him in the Savannah rotation this year. 4. Philip Orta: A draft-and-follow signee last year, Orta has a mid-90’s fastball to go along with a big curveball. Orta posted a 4.58 ERA with Kingsport last year. A little old in the tooth, (21 years old) for rookie ball, Orta might make the jump to St. Lucie next year. 5. Lucas Duda: An eighth round pick out of USC, Duda has been the recipient of strong praise from scouts and teammates. A gap-to-gap doubles hitter with some big time power potential, he hit .299/.398/.462 to go along with a 0.76 BB/K ratio with Brooklyn last year. The spacious parks in the Florida State League should test his power output next year. Around the Minors
15 Responses to “Minor League Notes, Preseason Edition”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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A few comments:
First, I always love minor league spotlights, so thanks for the profiles. I had seen some things on Duda and Carr, but not much of anything on Dlouhy.
Second, you say that the media failed to report Church´s comments, but you quoted a DC paper. I also recall reading that online; though I don´t recall where I read it, I only read NY oriented media.
Third, all three quotes are players whining. How is that unequal reporting?
Fourth, if you want to be balanced, then mention that the Mets had serious concerns about Milledge´s ability to hit breaking stuff, his work ethic/approach to major league adjustments, and the negative response from a number of his teammates. In trading him they filled two holes in their lineup with everyday players. Gotay could only hit from one side of the plate and was inconsistent on defense.
While I respect everyone´s right to their opinion, and understand the frustration of trading a young player full of potential, I´m just sick and tired of the Milledge defenders. He´s gone, a new season has started– let´s move on. We can all root for him to succeed in DC, as long as it´s not in games against the Mets.
ps-
I could be wrong, but I thought I read that Carlos Gomez got injured last week and will start the season on the DL. Did he end up OK after all?
Thanks Matt, I like hearing about the lotsa potential guys in the minors, but then as soon as I begin to like them, Omar trades them.
I was disappointed when Gotay was replaced by Castillo and I hope he does well in Atlanta.
Dave, I guess you know by now that Gomez played the opener, got two hits and two stolen bases. The Minnesota coach really likes him. If he plays regularly, even if he only bats .240, he should steal 50-60 bases with an 85 percent success rate. I think he will be great, though you definitely need to give something good to get someone like Santana.
Dave, there was an article in every paper for 3 consecutive days about those Milledge comments. In fact, when Paulie made some semi-inflammatory comments about the Mets, the article headlines (and the body of the story) would actually invoke Milledge’s name just to bring up his comments again, even though they were a few days old. I think 2 or 3 outlets even mentioned Church’s comments in passing.
There is a difference in coverage. It’s obvious.
As far as the minor leaguers go, I like your 5 potential breakout guys a lot. The Ruckle selection was inspired. I enjoy his 1920’s whirling dervish windup steezy. Here’s mine to throw on top of that, beside that, below that (whichever you prefer):
1. Ruben Tejada - uncanny plate discipline at such a young age, tremendous Spring
2. Nathan Vineyard - 19-year old strikeout lefty with a good fastball and a major league out pitch. Me like.
3. Hector Pellot - It just feels right. He really improved in the second half last year and seems poised for a leap. Good athlete and strong defensive potential at second base.
4. Wilmer Flores - He’ll probably only play in the GCL and he’s really raw, but he’ll mash the GCL and get us all excited for the Next Big Thing after Fernando. At least in my head he will.
5. Daniel Stegall - for Lister, Frenchy-type with tools about who hasn’t put it together… yet
Fernando!, Niese, Kunz, Parnell and Rustich are already rated too highly to breakout. I like all of those dudes.
I’ll gladly take that challenge. Lastings Milledge is a young black man with dreads who listens to and occasionally dabbles in rap music. Simple is that, his coverage here was dripped in racism from the minute Duquette picked him in the draft. It is beyond shameful that media does it, and almost as shameful that Mets with a minority GM and manager allowed it to continue without blistering the media for it.
None of the NY papers even picked Church comments, I picked them from the Washington Post directly. What a fucking joke the papers in town are.
I’m with Dave about the bias. In expressing puzzlement over the lack of infield depth at the minor league level, you fail to mention the player who made Gotay expendable — Argenis Reyes, who had an excellent spring training with the Mets. We spent a lot of time chatting about him on Metsgeek only a couple of days ago, analyzing his minor league numbers and spring training numbers, so the absence of any mention of his existence is even more puzzling. Reyes lacks Gotay’s power, but he has hit for a higher minor league average than Gotay (incl hitting over.300 against lefties, which is more the Mets’ need at present), hit .348 or so in spring training, is a better defensive player than Gotay, and has played 2d base, 3rd base and the OF in his five years in the minors, making him more versatile than Gotay. He’s also 25, so still young and improving. The Mets also have a kid named Anderson Machado, who has no stick (a la AHern), but who is also an excellent defensive infielder. The presence of these two kids certainly factored into the decision that Gotay was expendable.
I still don’t buy that explanation, Luc. Gotay was made expendable to make room for a righthanded utility OF. I don’t see how Reyes and Machado make him more or less expendable. Machado is not ready and Reyes has very limited upside in comparison to Gotay.
Gotay made the major leagues at the age of 21. Reyes is 25 and has never played in a major league game. They’re not the same level of prospect. You can’t just look at minor league numbers and not take into context the level and age at which they were achieved. Reyes played at the Double-A level for the first time at the age of 24 last year. He had never played above high-A ball before that. Gotay played High-A at the age of 20 and Double-A at the age of 21, before getting promoted to the big leagues.
The whole Gotay thing sucks for me. The organization is afraid to use their young players unless they are cant miss. Its funny how they’ll let players like Pelfrey get theyre teeth kicked in but someone like Gotay, whos defense isnt the greatest but its not horrible, go.
I also was impressed with Reuban Tejada’s AB’s. He looked looked he had the skills to be a 2hole hitter and down the road maybe be an effectve backup, or even be moved to 2B. I also thought Gustavo Molina looked pretty good behind the plate, and for a guy who is not supposed to have much of a bat, he managed to get quite a few ST hits.
Please….no more Gotay
The other thing that never gets mentioned in our complaints about players traded or waived is the options issue. If a player is out of options, the team has only three choices: trade him, keep him on the 25 man roster, or try to sneak him thru waivers. Even if a prospect is good, if he doesn´t fill a current need for the team it doesn´t make good business sense to keep him on the 25. The goal is winning, and management has to pick the players that best fill the roles to accomplish that. This was the main factor in the Gotay deal, and in the Heath Bell deal as well.
Matt and Danny–
I should offer a partial apology. I´m obviously out of town, so I don´t see all the media coverage in its smothering totality. They want to sell papers, and controversy sells. That said, I still stand behind my other comments. The media didn´t drive Milledge out of town, nor Gotay. Ryan Church isn´t a Met because of the media. Mets management knows a lot more about these players than we do, and are paid to field the best team possible– they´re not going to risk their own job by fielding a weaker team. Milledge isn´t the first ¨can´t miss¨ prospect to be traded by the Mets, and he won´t be the last. I love prospects, but I´ve become suspicious of the hype or early results, when I´ve been disappointed so often before.
BTW– Thanks for the Gomez update Eli. I´m glad he´s doing well for MN. Yes, you´ve got to give up quality to get quality.
Glad this was about minor league notes. I was tricked and want my time back for reading anything comparing Gotay’s comments to either Church and Milledge. I think the media on the whole is racist and there was a lot of it involved in the Milledge comments being published in the papers and the Church comments not being in the paper. Gotay uttered his quote right in front of the reporters apparently. Of course, It’s going to be covered to death.
I hate how the young players have been treated of late. They are either being rushed, hushed and/or sent off cause of fearing youth. I don’t believe Gotay fits into either category though. He is not on the Mets because Marlon Anderson is on the Mets. Simple as that. You can’t afford to keep another left handed pinch hitter type on your bench when there is an obvious need for a right handed pinch hit option vs left handed pitchers. See, as I said before and will say again, Easley is a horrible pinch hitter. Gotay hasn’t hit Lefties in his career either. So, I’m throughly tired of the comparison between Clark and Gotay because that isn’t the issue. It would of been a worthy combo had Tatis made the club since the argument there was that Tatis played the infield and outfield. I didn’t like losing Gotay. I like the guy but I don’t like him enough to let my blind faith as a Metfan ignore the fact that last season was an unexpected high in his career that hedged against the norm of his minor league numbers. As I’ve said, I hope Gotay learns the outfield and I hope that he gives up batting from the right side, just as Anderson Hernandez needs to give up batting from the left side.
I guess I’m just cranky because I got hyped seeing that this was called “Minor League Notes: Preseason Edition” and 2/3rds of the paper is about media bias. Argh!
for some reason, brady clark’s 2007 platoon split is missing from baseball-reference, but his 2006 against lefties was 273/338/375. in his career he’s only 273/361/401, and he’ll turn 35 in two weeks. that is not good. gotay has troubles against lefties, yes, but it should be extremely clear that clark does too. in fact, clark can’t really hit righties or lefties. i guess it kind of makes sense to claim that we needed clark as a righty off the bench and didn’t need gotay because we have marlon anderson, but i wouldn’t make that argument. a 25-year-old middle infielder with upside is a far better player to keep around than a fifth outfielder who can’t hit at all or a pinch-hitting specialist. hell, a 25-year-old middle infielder with upside is a far better player to keep around than a 26-year-old outfielder with a career ops of 726, as much as everyone seems to love angel pagan these days. i don’t know why they pushed gotay out of town, but it was either because they don’t trust youth or because they can’t evaluate talent very well. either thing is really bad. so in my opinion, yes, gotay did kind of get screwed (and the mets kind of screwed themselves while they were at it), and yes, it does kind of suck that young players are criticized and scrutinized for discussing unfair treatment, while veteran players are not. also, milledge now has more homeruns this year than the entire mets team. just saying.