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March 28, 2008
2008 Atlanta Braves Preview
The days are gone when the Mets lived in the Braves’ shadow; that ended in 2006 when the Mets won the division and the Braves, for the first time in twelve years, didn’t. The Braves finished third that year, a sub .500 team for the first time since 1990, when Ron Gant and David Justice were stars and Tom Glavine had yet to win 20 games. 2007 saw the Braves finish third again but with 84 wins while their Pythagorean record suggested they should have won 88. Incidentally, that’s how many the Mets finished with in that infamous year. So, despite their recent failures, the Braves are right up there with the Mets and Phillies in the NL East. In fact, some analysts have predicted a division title for Atlanta in 2008. In the words of Baseball Prospectus quoting Monty Python, “No, no, he’s not dead. He’s resting.” As that institution noted in its 2008 almanac, the Braves of today are very different from the Braves of yesteryear. No longer do they develop top pitching prospects and dominate the league with three ace starters. What strong arms they have developed they’ve dealt for meager returns, including Kevin Millwood for Johnny Estrada and Jason Marquis, Adam Wainwright and Ray King for J.D. Drew. On the other hand, the Braves have plenty of good, young hitters. Their starting eight, which will make around $30 million in 2008, is almost certainly better than the Mets’ starting eight, which will make around $64 million. The best of their young position players is probably Kelly Johnson. Johnson is a player the Mets could definitely use and would love to have, except for the fact that he’s only 26, and thus would be too old for consideration. He hits for power, draws walks, steals some bases and plays a solid second base. Considering how weak the talent is at that position, Johnson’s a huge asset. Of course, most people would tell you that Jeff Francoeur is the Braves’ best young player, but most people are wrong. Frenchie is still young, but he still doesn’t walk enough and his solid power and powerful throwing arm don’t completely make up for it. Some say that 2008 will be his big breakout year, but I say we’ll wait and see. League average could be in Francoeur’s future. In fact, the young right fielder probably isn’t even the second most valuable young hitter on his own team. That’s Brian McCann, a strong player at another weak position—catcher. McCann dropped off quite a bit last year from his monstrous 2006, in which he went .333/.388/.572 with 24 home runs and a VORP of 54.6, but he’s still only 24. The 28-year old Mark Teixeira is entering his walk year, which may be the perfect atmosphere for a huge season. Conservatively, he’ll hit around .300 with an OBP around .400 and will slug around .550 while hitting 30 home runs and playing good defense. None of those things are even close to certain for the Mets’ first baseman. On the other side of the diamond, the Braves dealt Edgar Renteria and gave the shortstop job to Yunel Escobar, a young singles hitter who doesn’t really excel at anything, but does a good enough job at that to be comfortably above replacement. It’s likely that he could lose his job to Brent Lillibridge, by most accounts a better player all-around. Then of course there’s Chipper Jones, still an enemy of the Mets, and still awesome. He hit .337/.424/.604 last year, including a .400/.464/.880 line at Shea Stadium. Of course, his hitting prowess in New York is a little overblown (he named his daughter after Shea!): Larry has a career line of .307/.403/.546, but “only” .310/.399/.565 in Flushing. Then again, he’s 201/.286/.373 lifetime at Wrigley Field. Go figure. The other Jones is gone, but a new one is not yet ready to take his place in center field. Until then, the Braves will probably use Mark Kotsay, acquired from Oakland in January along with more than $5 million to help pay his salary. There’s been talk that Josh Anderson, acquired from Houston in November, could be the starting center fielder, and Met fans can only hope that it’s true. He’s a terrible player who lucked into a small-sample .358 batting average last year. In left field, the man is Matt Diaz. Diaz is good enough to play, but probably not good enough to start full-time. Last year’s .338/.368/.466 was largely a product of a .379 BABIP; his .327/.364/.475 in 2006 was due to a .367 BABIP. Diaz doesn’t walk, doesn’t hit for much power, and doesn’t run much, either. Let’s hope he plays all the time. The Braves starting rotation figures to be led by John Smoltz, who is 41 years old but still effective and still healthy, even though he is starting the season on the DL with a sore shoulder before reemerging in time to take on the Mets at Turner Field on April 6. He’s still one of the best pitchers in the league—perhaps closing for four years lengthened his career? Tim Hudson’s good too. Last year he limited his walks and home runs, and induced more ground balls. There’s no reason he can’t do that again. But after Smoltz and Hudson it’s “pray for rain.” These include Tom Glavine, who at this point is little more than a good memory, but not for the Mets; Chuck James, a young left-hander without much endurances; Jo-Jo Reyes, a bigger and younger left-hander who probably needs more time in Triple-A; and Jair Jurrgens a young right-hander acquired from Detroit who should become a serviceable major league starter. The Braves’ rotation is on the whole, pretty weak. Their bullpen is better. Rafael Soriano, whom the Mariners inexplicably traded for Horacio Ramirez, has great peripheral statistics and should be a great closer. Royce Ring and Ron Mahay are a good pair of lefties. Peter Moylan induces ground balls with the best of them. Mike Gonzalez should return mid-season. And a combination of Manny Acosta, Buddy Carlyle and whoever doesn’t make the rotation should give the Braves plenty of options in the back end of the pen. The Braves are a dynasty no longer, but they haven’t fallen off the map, either. They’re in the thick of it, and long-term, look to be in a better position than the Mets. In 2008 though, they’ll probably finish third for the third straight year. 16 Responses to “2008 Atlanta Braves Preview”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Ron Mahay isn’t a Braves. Will Ohman replaces Mahay in the pen for 08. Acosta probably will be one of their main setup men. Chris Resop will probably make the team too.
The other jones, Brandon, is a left fielder with a long swing that will cause him problems versus major league pitching. Jordan Schafer is the centerfielder of the future.
Damn right but the Braves undervalue Lillibridge so badly for whatever reason. He should be their SS.
That was the talk at the beginning of the spring. The new “plan” going around the media is a three man platoon in Left and Center between Diaz, Kotsay and the winner of the 4th outfielder race between Anderson and Blanco. I guess there would be some sort of rotation with Diaz staying in left whenever he plays and Anderson playing in center on days that Kotsay is out or Diaz is out. This plan is toi get these guys three starts a week each. No one has confirmed this but the booth has been talking about this for days.
The rotation is Tim Hudson, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton and Jair Jurrgans. Chuck James will start the year on the DL and not much is expected from him this year. Jo-Jo Reyes needs to learn how to throw strikes.
I’m not trying to be an ass BT, I’m just down here putting up with the Braves carp day in and day out.
Matt Diaz would be a great fit on the Mets as a 4th OF, but I don’t think he’s really a viable everyday player. The Braves know this, well at least they did last year, because he got more than half of his at-bats versus lefties.
vs. LHP: 188 AB, .356/.384/.580/.964
vs. RHP: 170 AB, .318/.350/.406/.756
The Braves played Willie Harris against righthanders last year. Diaz’s production will go way down as an everyday player. Everyday players like David Wright or Jose Reyes will have something like 70-75% of their at-bats against righthanded pitchers. The Braves need to find a platoon player for Diaz. Besides Frenchy, the OF is pretty bad. Of course, the infield is damn good offensively, and overall the unit is really good. Chipper’s health is monumentally important for the Braves (and that’s not something you want to count on).
Otherwise, I’m glad someone mentioned that the Braves rotation is weak. They are getting way too much love from the “pundits”. But the bullpen has a chance to be pretty good.
The Braves are a good team. I project them for 85-88 wins and a second place finish.
What about Mike Hampton?
He is sure to help the Braves this year. He is rested and ready.
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Do I really need to “boop” this?
boop
It is always easy to underestimate the Braves; my initial reaction to reading their starting 8 is superior to the Mets’ starters was no way. Here is a listing of the better player at each position.
Braves: c-McCann, 1b-Tex, 2b-Johnston, rf-Francoeur
Mets: ss-Jose, 3b-David, cf-Carlos, lf-Moises (if ………)
Now consider how much better each of these superior starters will be vs the other team’s player in terms of conservatively predicted rbi’s. (Not knowing the ATL backup players makes this somewhat difficult).
c: McCann 90 rbi vs. (BriSchnei 40 rbi Castro 30 rbi). (ATL +20)
1b: Tex 120 rbi vs. (Delgone-oh 80 rbi; ny other 1b 10). (ATL +30)
2b: Johnson (2007: 16 hr,68 rbi,91 run) Didnt realize he was this good in his 1st yr. no way our one time table setter approaches this kind of production) (ATL +35)
ss: Jose blows away any braves ss.(70 rbi,15 hr,70sb 115 r) brave ss 25 rbi (NY +45)
3b: david 120 rbi vs chippie 85 (a younger version of Moises) (NY +35)
rf: Francoeur 105 rbi vs (Ryan 70 rbi, maybe 15 from other NY lf’s) (ATL +20)
cf: carlos should blow away kotsay 110 rbi vs 45 (other ATL cf 15rbi) (NY +50)
lf: Moises 50 rbi vs Diaz 45 rbi; (other lf’s ny-30 rbi, atl-20) (NY +15)
The above estimates give the Mets 145 addt’l rbi’s out of their superior starters vs the Braves addt’l 105 rbi’s out of their superior starters. The Mets 40 extra rbi’s is likely lower b/c the Braves can probably expect 20 addtl rbi’s at 3b, while chippie is on the DL. Not knowing the Braves role/backup players also means their output is probably underestimated. Conclusion - in terms of rbi’s, it may be very close. Pitching, not offense, will likely be the difference in the teams’ success.
Thanks Chris. That’s interesting and makes more sense than Diaz playing everyday. Of course, what are the chances that Kotsay stays healthy? I think the LF/CF situation will prove to be a big black hole for the Braves (though they are pretty rock solid everywhere else).
I drafted Schaffer and Jones in my NL only fantasy league for exactly that reason.
Fantastic as always BT. I think the phrase in Atlanta is “Hudson and Smoltz and pray for thunderbolts.”
I dunno what to think of Diaz. He’s got a very quick bat with pop. He’s basically a free-swinging fastball hitter, but he legitimately crushes what he gets to hit. He seems to do well against us. If other teams don’t take him too seriously, I could see him posting very good numbers. On the other hand, if everyone just throws him changeups and sliders off the plate, he could be an easy out. We’ll see.
I think y’all are seriously underestimating Yunuel Escobar. The kid has ridiculous talent. Looks like a potential future star to me (though hopefully not this year).
glavine will inevitably suck against everyone else, but go 7 innings and give up 1 hit while getting 6 inches on either side of the plate against us.
Count me as one who thinks Francoer is their best young player - or second best behind Texeira. I think you’re seriously overrating Johnson who may have come close to reaching his ceiling last year.
“overrating Johnson who may have come close to reaching his ceiling last year”.
What would make anyone think this guy reached his ceiling in his 1st full season at the approx age of 25-27 ?
Wouldnt it be a major accomplishment if our 2b hits (16 hr 70 rbi & scores 90 runs) ? thats not to pick on Luis; if any 2b in our system puts up those stats, he’s going to be called next in line…
This guy is not flashy with blazing speed but if he can improve to 20/90/.285 I think he will be considered a star or at least a force.
Neyer felt strongly enough to say that Kelly is going to be one of the top 30 players for the next 5 seasons. Frenchy didn’t even make the top 50, yet alone the top 10 among rf.
For those who aren’t as fortunate as I am to live in Ga, you’ve missed Frenchy’s new approach to hitting. He wants to pull everything and rack up homers. Chipper has been joking to frenchy that he may end up being what Andruw was last season offensively.
Joe, just so you know, they are pretty down on Brandon Jones right now. They seriously need to rework his swing. Way too long
Damn, Chris, no mercy, huh? Just jump right in to showing how ignorant I am? I admit it, I’m a hack. Once I got to the bullpen I was so tired of the Braves that I just sort of guessed. Stupid me.
Also, I totally forgot about Mike Hampton.
I like “Hudson and Smoltz, and pray for thunderbolts.”
I stand by my ‘ranking’ of the Braves’ young players though.
John, I felt bad after I wrote that. I mean, I hear about the Braves everyday from my pal. I love the fact that you have Kelly Johnson number 1 in your ranking of young players. The guy will never have the love that Frenchy and McCann have from that fanbase but he is by far the best imo. I don’t know if you’ve seen Schafer but it pisses me off that this kid is going to be a thorn in our sides for years to come
I haven’t seen Schafer, only heard of him. It’s good to know that they’re having problems with Brandon Jones; I thought he was about ready to come on the scene.
What about Gregor Blanco? I guess he doesn’t have enough power to play every day, but is he going to be on the team?