Take away Johan Santana from the Mets’ offseason, and Omar Minaya would be on the general managerial chopping block.

That’s a bit like the old saw, “Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?”, but I think it’s a fair point.

The Mets have two players who could best be described as “brittle”, but they happen to be critical to the success of the team’s offense. The Mets have no depth at their respective positions, and they did little to address that lack of depth during an offseason which, aside from the Santana acquisition, left something to be desired (and a very good player in Washington).

The two players to which I am referring are, of course, Moises Alou and Carlos Delgado. The Mets’ answers to “What if either gets injured happens when one or both become injured?” were Olmedo Saenz and Angel Pagan.

Last year, ten players suited up in left field for the good guys: Moises Alou, Jeff Conine, Damion Easley, Ricky Ledee, Marlon Anderson, Carlos Gomez, Endy Chavez, Lastings Milledge, Ben Johnson, and David Newhan. Most of those guys aren’t around this year.

It’s pretty much a guarantee that Alou won’t top 500 plate appearances, which leaves at least 200 plate appearances up for grabs out in left field. Here is what Alou has done over the past few seasons:

2005 - 490 PAs, .321/.400/.518
2006 - 378 PAs, .301/.352/.571
2007 - 360 PAs, .341/.392/.524
2008 (PECOTA) - 405 PAs, .307/.368/.485

So, let’s say that there are 300 plate appearances up for grabs in left field. Where are they going to go? (My thanks to Russlan Abouhassan’s 40-man roster review.)

- Marlon Anderson
- Endy Chavez
- Damion Easley
- Ben Johnson
- Angel Pagan

Is anyone happy with those options at all? I love Endy Chavez as a late-inning replacement, but as a starter, he hurts your offense. Marlon Anderson is a pinch-hitting guru, for whatever reason, and he is also generally overtaxed as a regular. Damion Easley is coming off a severe injury and is not a natural outfielder, though he’s certainly not a bad hitter. I like Ben Johnson a lot, but he slugged .356 last year… in Norfolk. Pagan has never hit particularly well at any level (he’s a career .255/.306/.415 hitter in the bigs).

And, for what it’s worth, as I first started writing this article, I noticed that Alou is likely to miss most of April. This is the cost of having Alou. He will hit for you, but he won’t play every day. It’s a drag on your overall production from the position.

What about first base?

- Marlon Anderson
- Damion Easley
- Olmedo Saenz

Replacing Alou worries me more than replacing Delgado, because I think that Alou will produce more. Still, Anderson and Easley don’t hit enough for the position, and Saenz could be anything this season (EqA of .305 in 2006, .241 in 2007), except a passable defender.

The truth is: these are backups. You’re not expecting your backups to be exceptional players, but when you have two players as risky health-wise as Delgado and Alou, you need someone at that end of the defensive spectrum to be able to fill in. In other words, the Mets need Shawn Green, an average hitter who can fill in at various spots. Green, however, hung up the cleats after last season.

So, the Mets need a backup left fielder, preferably one who could play first base, or a first baseman who could be a stopgap in left. Here are some options. This is not an exhaustive list, but I think that these guys are all viable options (or possibilities):

Dan Johnson

Pros: Can play a serviceable first base and could fill in for Delgado in a pinch. Would probably be cheap, as the A’s have been shopping him all winter.

Cons: Can’t play outfield reasonably, as far as I know. Has hit a paltry .235/.339/.403 over the last two seasons.

If Beane’s dumping, I would probably acquire him for a PTBNL, just because I think I would rather have Dan Johnson than Olmedo Saenz. He’s not the answer, but he would help a little bit.

Barry Bonds

Pros: Can hit a little.

Cons: He might be in jail.

Risky, pricey, whatever. I’m sort of pooh-poohing the idea because I just don’t think it has any chance of happening. But Barry Bonds would be a net positive on the Mets. Remember, this is a guy who still doesn’t have a ring. And his godfather finished out his career at Big Shea…

Xavier Nady (The X-Man)

Pros: Apparently, the Mets’ players love him. He crushes lefties and would fit in as a great platoon partner with Ryan Church in right when everyone was healthy. He could also be used as a spell for Delgado 1-2 times per week and for Alou 1-2 times per week. He could give you 400 plate appearances at a
slew of positions with a line of .280/.340/.460. Championship-caliber bench guy.

Cons: None as a player for this role; as a lefty-masher, Nady is an absolutely perfect fit.

If the Mets had the chips, I would do this in a minute. Nady would solve roughly 4 problems at the same time. This is not because he’s a former Met; it’s simply because he’s a good ballplayer.

Brandon Inge

Pros: He’s wonderful defensively; he’s probably has a better glove than even the great David Wright. Inge would be an excellent utility man and could fill in at a corner outfield spot or at first base. The Tigers might be looking to move him with a surplus of offense and without a spot in the lineup for him.

Cons: He doesn’t hit much. He posted a .236/.312/.376 line last year, and his offense hasn’t been all that great since back in 2004. The Tigers may be looking to move him, but what would they want from the Mets?

I think acquiring Inge would be akin to putting a square peg in a round hole. There are situations where an Inge would be a very valuable asset for the Mets, but most involve David Wright being hurt. And I don’t want to think about that at all.

Marcus Thames

Pros: Pure power. Can play both needed positions, and he could spell Delgado against lefties extremely well.

Cons: Coming off a pretty poor year (.242/.278/.498). He can’t really hit righties at all (career .226/.287/.479); he’s not even serviceable.

He’s a bit like Nady, actually… except Nady has been a bit more consistent. I would avoid Thames, and I don’t think he’ll be moved.

Josh Phelps

Pros: He can hit; his PECOTA forecast of .264/.340/.471 would make him a very valuable bat for the Mets off the bench. Even if Delgado were healthy, Phelps could be useful as a substitute or an eventual platoon-partner, if things get bad. I imagine that he could be acquired in a trade.

Cons: He can’t play defense, and he can’t play left field.

He doesn’t solve the immediate problem, which is getting someone who can hit into left field. He does, however, pose a good solution for Delgado’s struggles against lefties (Delgado hit .267/.318/.386 against southpaws in 2007). It’s funny — if the Mets could somehow acquire Nady and Phelps, they would be in fantastic shape offensively. Sadly, I don’t think they have the chips to get both guys.

Aubrey Huff

Pros: He’s a pretty reliable bat, hitting roughly the league average for a few years running.

Cons: He’s been involved in at least 127 trade rumors involving the Mets over his long career, and he has a history of starting out slow. A couple of years ago, we’d have described his contract as an albatross ($16 million over the next 2 years). Now he’s just overpriced.

Thoroughly unremarkable, but he fits, and I imagine that the O’s would be happy to move his salary. If they’re willing to pick up some of it, this might work.

Kevin Millar

Pros: He’s a valuable offensive commodity; having posted OBPs over .345 every year since 1998. He can also play first base reasonably well, and he can handle left field.

Cons: His PECOTA of .249/.351/.417 is not particularly optimistic, and the 36 year old professional hitter is in his decline phase.

For the right price, would be a good fit. That’s a good way to describe most of the people on this list. Another recurring theme: the Mets might not have the chips that the Orioles are targeting.

Ben Francisco

Pros: An interesting choice. Francisco is 26 years old and just had a solid year for Cleveland between AAA (425 PAs, .318/.382/.496) and the bigs (66 PA, .274/.303/.500). He also can run a bit, stealing over 20 bases in AAA.

Cons: Limited major league experience.

I like this type of guy: not very well known, but a pretty good fit. The Indians seem to value him pretty highly, though, and he has made an impression thus far this spring.

Jeff Salazar

Pros: A waiver pickup for the D’Backs last year, one could imagine him coming pretty cheap. Had an excellent year for Tuscon, hitting .299/.385/.495 in 472 PAs. He can play all three OF positions, as well.

Cons: Tuscon is a bit of a launching pad; his great year there wasn’t really that great. He’s also left-handed; Alou serves as an excellent right-handed bat in the lineup at present.

In the end, Salazar is the type of guy that I think is probably most attainable. He doesn’t have much of a reputation or a track record, but we’re pretty sure we know what he can do.

Jon Knott

Pros: Can play first base and outfield. An old-fashioned sabermetrics-type guy; 6′3″, 240 lbs, and hit 32 homers in AAA back in 2006. Last year, he posted a respectable .250/.356/.451 in challenging Norfolk.

Cons: Just not particularly remarkable. Is he really that much of an upgrade over guys like Ben Johnson?

We’re really grasping at straws at this point. Knott was a minor league free agent picked up by the Twins this year. The Mets could use a guy like this, certainly, but he’s just another option, then.

Juan Rivera

Pros: Something of a forgotten man in the Angels’ outfield, Rivera hit .310/.362/.525 back in 2006. An injury in the 2006/07 offseason cost him the ‘07 season. The Angels have a surplus in the outfield, with Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Matthews Jr., Reggie Willits, and Garret Anderson around. Make no mistake, Rivera can rake.

Cons: Has struggled with injuries his entire career; he’s never had 500 plate appearances in a single season.

If he’s being shopped, this would be a great pickup. Rivera is probably the most complete hitter on this list, excepting the future Hall of Famer. He’s also a potential 3-4 year replacement for Alou after this season, if he bounces back from his injury.

Conclusions

The problem, of course, is making the acquisition. Who can be traded? Fernando Martinez? Insane. One of the other pitching prospects? Does anyone really want them? Aaron Heilman? Interesting, but he’s too important in a weak bullpen.

The answer is the Mets’ young second baseman: Ruben Gotay. Dealing Gotay for a Jeff Salazar-type might work. I like Gotay, but they have a bunch of middle infield types already, and he’s blocked by four years of Luis Castillo (a mistake, to be sure).

My recommendation would be to shop around Gotay, looking for a team that could use a young second baseman with a bit of upside. Certainly, Cleveland could use a guy like Gotay; Ben Francisco might be attainable. Los Angeles could use a solid backup for Howie Kendrick, who has battled injuries already. If Baltimore moves Brian Roberts, you might be able to work into a three-way deal there, shipping out Gotay as his replacement and getting Kevin Millar. There are options out there.

I would rather not trade Gotay, as a Met fan and armchair strategist. But right now, the Mets have a distinct need, and Gotay is not in a position to address that need. The Mets also lack the requisite minor league depth in order to make spring trades. And, most importantly, if Endy Chavez is starting in left field on opening day, and Damion Easley is getting a bunch of at bats at first base in May, the Mets will have some problems. Adding one of these guys would help.

So, the Mets need an upgrade at backup leftfielder, and preferably one who can play first base. Sadly, they don’t have very many trade chips at this point, and there just aren’t very many great fits out there. It’s a tough spot, but I’m still optimistic about 2008.