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February 25, 2008
Roster Musings, Part I
Like every baseball fan in the world, I can’t wait for real baseball to start. Unlike many baseball fans, I don’t really find spring training that interesting, especially for a team whose roster is pretty set, like the Mets. Of course, that didn’t stop me from writing an article about my thoughts on the team’s 40-man roster and the non-roster invitees as spring training games are set to begin. Moises Alou: Everyone knows that Alou can hit and that he gets hurt frequently. One thing I found interesting when I looked over Alou’s season last season was that he actually played a lot when he wasn’t on the DL. Alou was on the DL for roughly 60-65 games last season so he was basically eligible to play in 95-100 games. He actually played in 87 games in 2007. Would giving Alou more rest when he is healthy keep him off the DL? Or should the Mets play Alou as much as they can while he’s healthy enough to play because a long DL stint is a foregone conclusion? Marlon Anderson: He’s been a very good pinch hitter in his two stints with the Mets and I am very comfortable with him in that role. I am a little bit worried with the idea that the Mets are toying with the idea of using Anderson as a back-up firstbaseman. Ideally, the Mets would find a right-handed bat that could play both the outfield and first base. Tony Armas, Jr.: There was a time when Armas was a promising young pitcher who was likely to have a distinguished career as a frontline starter. Unfortunately, that time has passed, as injuries have robbed Armas of his once considerable talent. Hopefully, Armas just eats innings for the New Orleans Zephyrs. Carlos Beltran: He isn’t the best player in baseball, but no one looks as smooth as Beltran does. He just makes it look easy. Ambiorix Burgos: Burgos, still recovering from Tommy John surgery, probably will not help the team much in 2008. I honestly believe that he would have made a difference for the Mets during the collapse had he been healthy. There is still plenty of time for Burgos to become a good reliever, although that won’t happen until 2009 at the earliest. Luis Castillo: I tend to think players like Luis Castillo (short middle infielders who don’t hit for power) tend to be overrated by the average fan and mainstream media. That’s why I was surprised when I appreciated the way he played baseball for the Mets in 2007. He does all the little things correctly and really seems to get the most out of his talent. I don’t think Castillo is going to be a good player when his contract expires after the 2011 season, but I am confident he’ll help the Mets in 2008. Ramon Castro: I really thought Castro would leave the Mets to pursue an everyday catching position, but it now appears that he’ll never get another chance to find out whether or not he’s good enough to be a regular. I find it very odd that the Mets were able to get him so cheaply. Castro finished tied for 13th place among major league catchers in homers last season despite the fact that he had less than 160 plate appearances. While it is true that his defense was not good in 2007, and he has missed some time because of injuries the last few years, it’s also true that more than one team would have benefitted in 2008 by making Ramon Castro their everyday catcher. The Mets might be one of those teams. Endy Chavez: He’s been a good bench player for the Mets and has become something of a fan favorite. He might be the best defensive outfielder in baseball. Ryan Church: When the Mets traded Milledge to the Nationals, I was surprised that Church was thought of as something of a throw-in. In fact, I think Church is much more valuable than Schneider. Church has an .833 career OPS against right-handers and is a good defensive outfielder. The Mets should probably acquire a platoon partner, but it looks like Church will be given a chance to prove he can hit lefties. I don’t think he can, but he should be a solid contributor against right-handed pitching. Carlos Delgado: He had his worst year as a big leaguer last season and is going to be 36 years old in 2008. He should be better than he was last season but it is likely that his days of posting .900+ OPS’s are gone. I am expecting an OPS between .800-.850, instead. It’s going to be interesting to see what the Mets do if Delgado does have a rebound season in 2008 because the Mets have the option of bringing him back next season for what would amount to $8-12 million when one discounts the $4-million buyout. Mark Teixeira and Adam Dunn are both free agents and would fit in perfectly for the Mets at first, but if Delgado has a good year, the Mets could always pick up his option and trade him. I am sure more than one team would be interested in Delgado if he can hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs this season. Damion Easley: He had a fine year in 2008, but I don’t think he’s a good fit for the role he is expected to play in 2008 since it looks like the team is looking at him as an outfield option. As a backup infielder, Easley is a good enough hitter, but I wouldn’t want him getting a lot of playing time in a corner outfield spot. Pedro Feliciano: Arguably the Mets’ second most valuable reliever the last two seasons behind closer Billy Wagner, he has been death against lefties (.541 OPS against) and is pretty tough against right-handed hitters as well (.699 OPS against). Ideally, the return of Duaner Sanchez will allow Willie to be more selective in how he uses Feliciano, but Pedro has shown that he is capable of pitching in the eighth inning if the need arises. Ruben Gotay: He had a good season with the bat in 2007, posting a .782 OPS between Triple-A and the big leagues last season. It might have been more cost-effective for the Mets to go with a Gotay/Easley platoon rather than re-signing Castillo, but it is clear the Mets do not think that Gotay will hit enough to overcome his weak defense at second. Gotay showed that he was capable of playing shortstop last season in a backup role—actually looking more comfortable there than at second—and will now try to make the team as a backup. He likely won’t get much playing, barring an injury to Castillo. Aaron Heilman: Heilman has been a fine reliever for the Mets the last three seasons, posting a 3.01 ERA while averaging about 80 innings in that role. That said, I am really worried about him because his strikeout rate has dropped dramatically since 2005. That year, Heilman struck out 27% of the batters he faced as a reliever. Last year, that figure dropped down to 18%. Orlando Hernandez: El Duque pitched about as well as the Mets could have reasonably hoped for in 2007: he posted a 3.75 ERA while logging 144 innings as a starter. I have been surprised to hear some talk that the Mets should move Hernandez to the bullpen and use Pelfrey as a fifth starter. For one thing, the Mets will likely need more than five starters this season anyway, and they’d be better off with Pelfrey pitching as a starter in the minors until that need arises. More importantly, Hernandez was arguably Mets’ most consistent starter last season and deserves a spot in the rotation. One thing to keep in mind is that Hernandez’s BABIP was a ridiculously low .222 last season, and Hernandez outperformed his peripherals by a significant margin as a result. Duque still can strike out hitters, so I’m not too concerned, but it is likely that Hernandez will not match his 2007 ERA this season. Ben Johnson: It’s pretty clear that the Heath Bell trade did not work out for the Mets in 2007. In an ideal world, Johnson would make the Mets as Church’s platoon partner in right field and provide some pop against lefthanders and quality defense. On planet Earth, I expect him to spend most of the year in New Orleans. Ruddy Lugo: There is nothing in his statistical record that suggests that he can help the Mets in 2007 other than the fact that he has only allowed 0.47 hr/9 in his career as a big leaguer. A lot of things will have gone wrong if he is pitching in important situations for the Mets in 2008. John Maine: All things considered, Maine had a very successful season last year, finishing in the top ten among NL pitchers in wins, strikeouts, strikeouts-per-nine innings and in the top 20 in ERA. I wouldn’t be too concerned about the fact that his numbers in the second half of the season weren’t as good as they were in the first half; that was really just Maine’s luck evening out. The difference in his peripherals was not as big as the swings in his ERA would suggest. There is no doubt that Maine took a step forward in 2007. If he is to do the same in 2008, he will need to limit the walks to become more efficient overall. Look for the rest of the roster in the near future. Russlan Abouhassan is a regular contributor at MetsGeek. 11 Responses to “Roster Musings, Part I”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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I would agree with most of your thoughts Russlan. A few reactions to your ideas:
Moises Alou: Would giving Alou more rest when he is healthy keep him off the DL? I tend think the Mets should play Alou as much as they can while he’s healthy enough because a long DL stint is a foregone conclusion. His quad acted up in the early part of the season last year, when fatigue should not have been an issue. If he is able to play uninterrupted for 50-60 games initially, then maybe it is time to start thinking about giving him some rest before fatigue can become a factor possibly leading to injury.
Marlon Anderson: I agree definitely agree that Marlon is not an ideal back-up 1b or OF’r due to a less than average power threat and equally important defensive ability.
Tony Armas, Jr.: Unfortunately, the time of Tony being a stud SP has passed, after many injuries; hopefully, he just eats innings for N.Orl’s; maybe is a 2nd, 3rd or 4th emergency starter or reliever option for the Mets.
Luis Castillo: unfortunately his primary weapon diminished a few seasons ago; the extra TWO yrs on the contract make it the most puzzling of the entire MLB offseason
Ramon Castro: I shared these ideas immediately after 07 ended, however the overwhelming response to my postings was the back issues prevent the possibility of Ramon playing every day for extended periods.
Endy Chavez: He had an amazing catch but saying he might be the best defensive outfielder in baseball is likely a stretch…
Ryan Church: I expect Ryan to shock the hell out of all the people screaming that he cant hit. If he can put up 15 hrs & 40 doubles he should make everyone forget about LM. The fact that he will be catching flyballs instead of having the bounce off different body parts and can also track them down, will be a major upgrade. The fact that he wont be alienating half the team will be another huge bonus. LM had the potential to be exciting but who knows what went on behind the scenes that contributed to his being sent away… Schneider may have an even bigger impact in making the pitching staff more effective.
Carlos Delgado: A big year would be great; not only in terms of 2008, but also 2009. If we dont have to consider 1b a major need to fill for 2009, then maybe we dont feel pressured into overpaying Texeira.
Damion Easley: He had a fine year in 2008, (just Jose V in 2006) but I don’t think either guy should get many AB’s as a corner OF’r. Not sure either can cover much ground in the OF. Certainly wouldnt expect either to be a major contributor in 2009; this is why I feel Gotay must make the team. He can improve and contribute in future seasons, especially if (WHEN) Luis goes down….
Pedro Feliciano: definitely an unsung hero in the BP, under appreciated as is AH.
Ruben Gotay: As per above, Ruben has more to offer than Damon or JoseV, especially long term and with his ability to play SS. Stache gets the nod defensively at 2b, but is more injury prone, and not likely to repeat his breakout year. Ditto for D.E.
Aaron Heilman: if he continues to be effective, no need to fret over K’s. groundball DP’s are great; Duaner can be brought in when a K is critical.
Ben Johnson: hopefully he can rebound in AAA contribute as a future 4th/5th OF.
John Maine: if he continues to improve and adds to his stamina, he could become our #2 in 2009 & beyond. As a 1st year starter, I thought he was incredibly impressive in some very important games last year.
There would go any possible chance for Wright to repeat his gold glove!
Isn’t Castillo still gimping around?
Could Castro’s defense have suffered because he was suffering from arthritis? If that is the case, while I suppose that he could be better off if he loses 20 pounds, he probably cannot play frequently.
I am pretty pessimistic for any numbers Delgado might put up in 09. Tiexiera would be a coup.
I think he pitches in a lot of pain. He (and the Mets) might be better off if he pitches 6-7 innings starting every five days than relief pitching. But that ain’t going to happen
Andy, aside from semi-retired Shawn Green, can you suggest anyone who is better?
Delgado is the worst defensive 1B I have ever seen (Piazza was not a 1B). I’d be willing to bet that Marlon would be an improvement defensively.
Joe, I’m not the expert on this, but my understanding is that Delgado has very limited range but isn’t all that bad at picking balls out of the dirt. And he is taller than M Anderson so Delgado could reach more airborne balls as well. So, Marlon may (or may not) overall be a defensive improvement by reaching more ground balls, but that won’t help Wright’s personal stats since Wright tends to spray his throws around.
Maybe. The thing that bugs me about Delgado is that he comes off the bag and tries to tag the runner if the throw is the slightest bit off line. If he could stretch even a little he would catch a lot of those throws on the bag.
It is painful to watch him play defense when you’ve seen guys like Keith, Olerud, Brogna, etc. in the past. I hope he has a good year but I also hope the Mets are smart enough to let him go after this season.
Joe, I am hoping the same on both counts. For those who may remember (with annoyance), I am secretly hoping that Mike Jacobs finds his way back. But when any logic kicks in, Tex is the man I hope to see at first in a Mets uniform.
Well I would still rather have Delgado than Jacobs in ‘09.
And I know a lot of people are hoping for Tex, but I don’t see the Mets going after him at all.
I can’t imagine what or who you are watching that would lead you to want Jacobs back. Other than his auspicious beginning to the majors, I have never seen anything in him that makes me regret the trade.
I don’t think it’s really an issue of “stamina” for Maine. It’s having better control, thus keeping the walks at a minimum, thus the pitch counts down. He’ll be fine. Not great, but fine.
Your’re right, Shea, nothing logical here. Who needs to be logical all the time. If I were the GM of the Mets, I would need to be more responsible.
In response to the final point of comment #2, I think Endy is an excellent 4th OF, but not the best defensive OF in the NL or MLB. I would not be overly excited about Shawn G returning unless it was for the ML minimum salary & considering he had to think about playing another season last year while making $10.0m, I couldnt imagine him returning for one tenth of that amount. If your question was, who would be better than Shawn, I would prefer Xavier Nady or Mench (who I realize was signed a few weeks ago). Shawn’s monster homer in Milwaukee was jaw dropping, but so was his inability to catch anything that found its way directly into his glove. Four or five consecutive seasons of declining offensive production do not lead me to think he will suddenly rediscover the greatness he enjoyed in Toronto and LA. I think the plan to use our 4 headed 2b monster (DE-JV-RG-MA) as a part time OF is questionable at best because of limited offense & defensive OF abilities.