February 21, 2008
Spring Notes
Guess what? It’s time for a Spring Training notes column! Nothing says “too lazy to come up with a real column before your deadline” like a notes column! We’re into the hopeful period of spring, where everyone looks to be in the best shape of their lives, and positive, uplifting “news” reports seem to grow on trees alongside the grapefruit. Here are a few things that have crossed my mind during the opening week at Port St. Lucie.
- The Mets need to take a long look at Mike Pelfrey and formulate a plan for him. With Johan Santana on board, the rotation has become a little crowded, but there’s still a potential spot in the future with Orlando Hernandez (and possibly Pedro Martinez) likely in his last year with the team. The Mets really need to evaluate Pelfrey this spring and figure out where his future lies. While it’s most likely that Hernandez will stay in the rotation, his fragility certainly complicates the matter, and the Mets might decide to commit to Pelfrey instead and use El Duque to solidify the bullpen.
If the Mets decide Pelfrey’s secondary stuff is ready now, they could keep him in the rotation and weather any speed bumps along the way. With the top of the rotation as strong as it is, they might decide to do it even if his breaking stuff isn’t there yet, just to help preserve El Duque’s arm. Or the Mets could immediately move the young pitcher to the bullpen and begin his transformation into a reliever, as they did with Aaron Heilman a few seasons ago. The third option would be to keep Hernandez in the rotation, but send Pelfrey to New Orleans to perfect his breaking stuff and wait for an inevitable injury to Pedro or Hernandez.
What should they do? There’s no easy answer. He’s got a big league fastball, and he’s done a fair job of limiting the homerun everywhere he’s gone, but his lack of an out-pitch prevents him from racking up too many strikeouts, his command isn’t great, and despite relying on a good power sinker, his 48.3 groundball percentage is merely good. It adds up to a flawed pitcher. Still, that doesn’t mean Pelfrey’s going to be more successful as a reliever, nor does it mean he’ll flop if granted another opportunity as a starter. One of the many things I learned doing the Upcoming Series feature here last season was just how many starters across the league are really two-pitch pitchers. There are even a few one-pitch pitchers, many of them sinkerballers. And relievers need secondary stuff also, nearly as much as starters do.
I’m not sure what to do with Pelfrey. But I do know the Mets need to commit Pelfrey to some role—it won’t benefit him any to be jerked back and forth from one role to the next without any plan. That’s not to say there shouldn’t be any flexibility to this plan, but there needs to be some sort of schema guiding this whole procedure. And the Mets need to determine just what that is.
- An important figure in the team’s decision about Pelfrey is the status of Duaner Sanchez. If healthy, the righty can give guys like Heilman and Pedro Feliciano a little bit extra rest—at times last season both pitchers looked positively gassed. The return of Sanchez will take a lot of pressure off Mets management to thrust Pelfrey into a role he might be ill-prepared for. While I, for one, think the jury’s still out on Duaner—his breakout 2006 actually featured two outstanding months and two mediocre ones—there’s no doubt he’s a capable arm who can take some of those innings.
Thus, it was nice to hear at David Lennon’s blog yesterday that not only was Sanchez looking comfortable throwing batting practice, but he also seemed to be on his best behavior. Considering team officials were quite disappointed with his work ethic last spring, it’s a positive sign. Still, I won’t get too excited until I see him against some real hitting in an actual pitching situation
- This will be Moises Alou’s age 41 season, and he is still a dangerous hitter. Here’s something I didn’t notice last season: Moises Alou had the highest OPS of any Met in his 40’s in history, regardless of how many plate appearances that player received. Here’s the full list:
YEAR OPS AGE PA
1 Moises Alou 2007 .916 40 360
2 Rickey Henderson 1999 .889 40 526
3 Willie Mays 1972 .848 41 242
4 Rusty Staub 1985 .800 41 55
5 Julio Franco 2006 .700 47 179
6 Rusty Staub 1984 .652 40 79
7 Willie Mays 1973 .647 42 239
8 Rickey Henderson 2000 .616 41 124
9 Julio Franco 2007 .588 48 61
10 Jeff Conine 2007 .550 41 50
11 Yogi Berra 1965 .444 40 9
12 Sandy Alomar Jr. 2007 .318 41 22
That’s every 40+ non-pitcher the Mets have ever had play. Shockingly, the Mets had four play last season, when they’ve never had more than one. It makes sense that they’d have more than ever before, given that players’ careers are lasting longer, but that didn’t stop Julio Franco, Jeff Conine, and Sandy Alomar from demonstrating a complete lack of hitting ability in their advanced age.
Alou’s season wasn’t as valuable as Henderson’s, given the differences in playing time, but Alou has a good chance at becoming the best player over the age of 40 the team’s ever featured.
- As has been noted here, the Mets signed Brady Clark the other day, and it’s a smart gamble. As recently as 2005, he hit .306/.372/.426, and while he has no power anymore, he’s still capable of posting above average OBA’s, which is a useful skill to have coming off the bench when you need to start a rally. Dave Magadan stuck around until he was 38 doing just that, and there’s little reason to think Clark couldn’t do the same.
I do wish that the team had a bigger power threat off the bench than Marlon Anderson and Damion Easley, especially since Ramon Castro is likely to be off-limits in most situations.
I do understand Barry Bonds is out there and still looking for work.
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Nice write-up Alex.
The Pelfrey question is one I think all of us will ponder this spring and into the season.
As for Dirty, let’s keep our fingers crossed. If nothing else, he’s better than Mota. Right? RIGHT? (Please tell me I’m right)
No chance of the Barry circus in NY. The Wilpons would never do it.
The problem with Bonds…..other than the very obvious ones is that he would never get a chance to swing a bat. Put him up as a pinch hitter…and he’s an automatic walk. Doesn’t matter. It won’t happen anyway.
Duque is not going to the bullpen. Pelfrey will be in AAA where he currently belongs.
I pray that Duaner returns to his 2006 form….or damn close at least! He’s a big key to this season imo.
If bonds is playing next year it will be for someplace like the Yanks, Texas, or even Oakland as a DH. He could probably still rip 40 hrs as a DH in the AL and someone might take that risk if they think it could pay off in the post season.
Unlikely, but possible.
I would rather see Sosa as a Met than Bonds, but have no interest in either.
Interesting that you didn´t mention Ollie Perez as being possibly gone after the season. I think that there´s a better chance of Pedro pitching for the team in 2009 than Ollie.
As to Pelfrey, I haven´t actually read anything about any Mets plans to move him to the pen. Everything I´ve seen from the team has been consistent about keeping him as a starter. There´s a lot of fan and reporter speculation about a move though. So, I don´t really think that the team has jerked him back and forth at all.
If Duaner can be better than Mota, and the innings pitched by the starters increase by about 50 (as I speculated in a journal), the pen should be much better, with a lot less of a load on Heilman and PF. If he can be better than Mota, then even better for the team. Fingers crossed.
Pelfrey should be pitching every 5th day for the Mets in 2009. That means he should be pitching every 5th day in 2008, for some combo of the Mets and Zephyrs.
El Duque was too valuable as a starter last year to move to the ‘pen until he got hurt. I’ll assume that’ll be true this year too until he shows otherwise.
Castro being off-limits as a pinch-hitter is retarded. It’s not even a Willie thing, it’s a “many managers” thing. How often does a cacther get injured in the final few innings of a game, injured enough that he MUST come out? Seems like, oh, about once every 162 games. For the other 161, you’ve handicapped yourself into a 24-man roster.
Speaking of Willie specifically, he showed a willingness to bring Castro in for the 9th. Is the chance that your last available catcher gets hurt in the 9th THAT much different that he guts hurt in the 7th/8th/9th? Infinitessimal times 3 is still infinitessimal.
If the Mets are smart and if Ollie is having a good year they need to sign him before or shortly after the All-Star game. We have worked and developed the kid for to long not to give him a contract. If the Mets were to lose Perez, Pedro, and Hernandez after the season then what? Then wouldn’t Humber and Mulvey come in pretty handy then. Paying Ollie for a new contract is a no brainer to me and it better become for the season is over before other teams up his prices.
For better or worse, this ain’t gonna happen, griff.
Ollie is already talking Boras propaganda, saying he’d be right where he’s at in his development with or without the Mets’ help. And when was the last time we saw any Boras client sign during the season? Ollie will hit the free agent market, Boras will write a 754 page report extolling his many virtues on why he should get $12M per and thus, the Mets could very well pass - especially IF Pelfrey proves he can be an effective starter.
In that regard, I think this is a hugely pivotal year for Pelfrey. Do the Mets make him a reliever? Or are they already assuming that Perez won’t fit their budget and groom Pelfrey to take his place? I believe Argon hits the nail on the head here, somehow, somewhere Pelfrey should be starting every 5th day so we can see exactly what we got in this kid.
IMHO, the Pelfrey and Delgado story lines will be among the most intriguing this year. Turning point years for both of them.
As always, great writing job, Alex! Thanks for the report.
I guarantee Maine is the #3 and Ollie the #4 in the 08 rotation. Why give Boras more reason to jack-up the price.
Is anyone else worried about the right side of the plate with starts and bench? A likely Alou DL stint would drastically shift the balance considerably.
I’m also very very very interested to see how Church reacts with the NY media over the long haul. I have a couple of buddies in DC who classify Church as a very caustic personality. Hopefully he will try to fit in and not rub off in a negative way to his teammates.
Also, a healthy Sanchez who shows signs of his 06 self will give the mets bullpen much needed structure from 7-9. Obviously one of the biggest reasons for the mets collapse was the performance of the bullpen. I wish we were able to quantify how much the 07 bullpen by committee contributed to the ineffeciencies of the pen. Its not Willies fault, he had to go with the hot hand at the time, because the pen was struggling. Starters have it easy, they know they are pitching every 5th day. Obviously relievers do not have that luxury. A reliver gets dressed before a game not knowing if they will be called into the game. But to not know your role as a reliever is another thing. IMO the pen lives and dies with the performance of Dirty. Alot of pressure on a guy coming off of multiple surgies on his throwing shoulder. Good luck Dirty!!!!