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February 19, 2008
  
Starters´IP 2007 vs 2008

In 2007 Mets starters pitched a total of 941 innings, up from around 920 in 2006. The main guys were:

Glavine 34 starts, 200 IP

Maine 32 starts, 191 IP

Ollie 29 starts, 177 IP

El Duque 24 starts, 148 IP (there may be a few relief innings in here)

Sosa 14 starts, 80 IP

Pelfrey 13 starts, 73 IP

Pedro 5 starts, 28 IP

Lawrence, Vargas, Wms, Park, Humber 11 starts, 52 IP

For 2008 I made a couple of assumptions: Santana would have the same numbers as 2007, OllieP would also, Maine would have a very small improvement, and Pedro would pitch about 150 innings. With the loss of Glavine, Williams, Lawrence, Humber, and Park, and the addition of Armas, this is how I sketched it out for 2008:

Santana 34 starts, 220 IP

Maine 32 starts, 200 IP

OllieP 29 starts, 177 IP

Pedro 26 starts, 150 IP

El Duque 24 starts, 148 IP

Pelfrey 10 starts, 60 IP

Vargas 4 starts, 22 IP

Armas/Sosa 3 starts, 17 IP

This gives us 994 IP total, up from the 941 of 2007. The relievers pitched 512 innings in 2007, so if the increased innings of the starters can reduce the relievers load by about 50 IP it should be a huge help to their stamina. That´s the equivalent of 10 innings less for each of the top 5 relievers on average (though Wags innings are probably more a function of save situations than of total need; most of the benefit will be for Heilman, PF, Sanchez, Sho etc.).

Another area which should show a huge improvement is in WHIP and K/BB. Glavine had a WHIP of 1.42 and a K/BB of 1.39. Pelfrey had a WHIP of 1.70 and a K/BB of 1.15.  I figured in Santana´s numbers from 2007 (WHIP 1.05 K/BB 4.52!), historically appropriate ratios for Pedro (1.17 WHIP and 3.71 K/BB!),and similar or very slightly improved numbers for Maine, Ollie, Duque, and Pelfrey. In 2007, the top 6 starters had a combined WHIP of 1.34 and a K/BB of 1.89. In 2008, I´m thinking it´ll be closer to 1.21 WHIP and 2.75 K/BB! That´s the effect of Santana and Pedro when compared to Glavine and Sosa/whoever.

This is all guesswork of course, but I hope that it´s educated guesswork. Who knows what will happen with Pedro or Duque, or how Ollie will deal with a walk year? Will we get the first half Maine or the 2nd half Maine? All good questions, and ones that will make or break our season– or at the very least, make it very entertaining!


9 Responses to “Starters´IP 2007 vs 2008”

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  1. Comment posted by Lunkwill Fook on February 19, 2008 at 4:30 pm (#612969)

    I think Maine can definitely hit 200 IP next season. I don’t think Pelfrey can be counted on to average 6 IP per start though.

  2. Comment posted by Dave in Spain on February 19, 2008 at 4:44 pm (#612990)

    Pelfrey was at 5.57 IP/GS in 2007. I´m hoping that with a few months at AAA he´ll be more consistent and better equipped to go a little deeper into games.

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  4. Comment posted by Chris in GA on February 19, 2008 at 5:45 pm (#613013)

    Awesome job

  5. Comment posted by Ed in Westchester on February 19, 2008 at 7:41 pm (#613021)

    The best part is the pen won’t have to have Mota in the game, thereby meaing we won’t have to see him followed by 4 other guys to clean up his mess.

  6. Comment posted by NYNarwhal on February 20, 2008 at 10:03 pm (#613912)

    I think Pedro will throw more than 150 IP if he gets that many starts. He doesn’t walk very many batters and he’s good at keeping his pitch count down, so even if he’s at a 100-pitch limit or so, he should still be good for about seven innings a start (hopefully).

  7. Comment posted by littlefallsmets on February 21, 2008 at 1:49 am (#613937)

    Let’s… never see Vargas start, huh?

    Never again?

    I think the less starts by pitchers outside of the Mets top seven starters (the regular rotation plus Pelf and Sosa) the better the Mets do.

    Basically what I mean is… hopefully, the situations wherein there are two of the top five injured are at a minimum.

  8. Comment posted by Dave in Spain on February 21, 2008 at 2:02 am (#613938)

    I think Pedro´s count will be lower for two reasons: he didn´t pitch last year, so the team will not want his overall numbers to jump too much, and
    they will baby him at first so he doesn´t put too much per game stress on his arm.

  9. Comment posted by JamesSC on February 22, 2008 at 11:42 am (#614981)

    No way Pedro averages 7 innings a start, if his average is over 6 I will be happy. Now he could be going 7 in September (or more hopefully Oct), but he will start slow and they will be very careful with him.

  10. Comment posted by Dave in Spain on February 23, 2008 at 3:46 am (#615518)

    That´s why I projected less than 6 innings for Pedro. 150 innings in 26 starts…

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