Projections aside what does recent history suggest about the Mets ’08 rotation? Here are the cumulative numbers posted by the 12 Mets hurlers who started games in 2007:

W L IP H ER R HR BB SO K/9 P/GS WHP ERA
66 53 940.2 918 460 500 117 373 716 6.85 98.7 1.37 4.40

The following chart assumes the same performance as delivered in 2007 on a projected 2008 staff except for Pedro – his numbers are from 2006. These do not include innings pitched from the bullpen.
NAME/GS W L IP H ER/R HR BB/SO K/9 WHIP ERA
Santana/33 15 -13 219 183 81/88 33 52/235 9.66 1.07 3.33
Martinez/23 9-8 132.2 108 66/72 19 39/137 9.29 1.11 4.48
Perez/29 15-10 177 153 70/90 22 79/174 8.85 1.31 3.56
Maine/32 15-10 191 168 83/90 23 75/180 8.48 1.27 3.91
Duque/24 9-5 144 106 60/63 22 60/124 7.75 1.15 3.75
Pelfrey/13 3-8 69.1 80 43/45 6 36/43 5.58 1.67 5.58
Lawrence/6 1-2 29 43 22/22 4 13/18 5.59 1.93 6.83
Vargas/2 0-1 10.1 17 14/14 4 2/4 3.48 1.84 12.19

Totals/162 67-57 971.4 858 439/484 133 356/915 8.48 1.25 4.07

Lawrence & Vargas serve as placeholders to soak up the 8 missing starts created by the model’s workload. If the season shakes out something like above there would be several key gains from last season.

Starters would absorb 30 more innings than last season.  This is seen as a key to restoring bullpen effectiveness based on the theory that last years pen was overworked.  In reality, the 2007 bullpen pitched 31 fewer innings than in 2006. Despite the lighter workload the pen ERA rose from 3.25 to 3.99.  The pen was weaker last season . . . but it wasn’t due to overwork.

But 30 fewer innings for the pen is still a good thing, especially if the pen is a weakness- plus those 30 extra starter innings come with 60 fewer hits allowed - that’s a stunning improvement.

This model also yields nearly 200 more K’s coupled with 17 fewer walks, 16 more HRs allowed but 21 fewer earned runs. A drop in ERA from 4.40 to 4.07 and WHIP from 1.37 to 1.25.

But the win loss percentage actually drops from .555 to .540. Wins may not be a fair reflection of a pitcher’s performance but they still determine who makes the post-season.

Pedro is probably the biggest wild card. He threw 133 innings in 2006. His 2008 range could probably be anywhere from 100 – 180ip. Will he split the difference between the 2.57 & 4.48 ERAs he posted the past two seasons? Can his HR rate resemble something more like 2007 (0 in 28ip) instead of ’06’s horrid 1 HR every 7ip offered up when he was hurting? That seems to be the explanation for his 2007 ERA dropping nearly two runs despite his WHIP rising from 1.11 to 1.43.

Of course Santana might benefit dramatically from a shift to the NL, but are Ollie & Maine even money to improve or regress? Of course guys never put up the exact same numbers from year to year but this was still a fun exercise. 2008 should be fascinating to watch.