Mets Geek » Blog Archive » Winners and Losers: National League

January 10, 2008

Winners and Losers: National League

Scribbled by: John Peterson @ 12:22 am | Filed under: Articles

There hasn’t been much to talk about on the Mets’ front, so I thought I’d give a summary about how the offseason is going for the rest of the National League.

Winners

Diamondbacks: They have won on every deal this off-season. First, they dealt Carlos Quentin to the hapless White Sox for underrated prospect Chris Carter, whom they later included in the Dan Haren trade. The D’Backs paid a hefty price for the young Athletics pitcher, but it was the right time for them and the right player for the team. Finally, Josh Byrnes sold high on Jose Valverde, who benefited from a very lucky team that played and won a lot of one-run games, getting a near-equivalent player back in return in Chad Qualls, as well as two other useful players.

Padres: Nothing especially fancy here, but they’ve maintained their position in my book as NL Wild Card favorites. Re-signing Greg Maddux for one year and $10 million was a great, low-key move. They also signed former Met Chip Ambres, who is certainly a better option than, say, Angel Pagan. Kevin Towers and Co. made a number of solid, low-risk, short-term deals with Michael Barrett, Mark Prior, Randy Wolf, Glendon Rusch (minor league deal), Shawn Estes (ditto), and Jeff DaVanon (ditto). Acquiring Jim Edmonds from the Cardinals was a creative move with some upside. And best of all, the team gave a nice five-year extension to Jake Peavy.

Cubs: While they did well to decline the options on Cliff Floyd and Steve Trachsel, the trade of Jacque Jones for Omar Infante didn’t seem to have much benefit, especially since the Cubs will pay $2 million of Jones’ $5 million contract in 2008. Jones’ value should be more than another mediocre middle infielder. Of course, if this means that Felix Pie mans center field in 2008, then it looks fine. The Cubs later turned around and dealt Infante with lefty Will Ohman to the Braves for minor league reliever Jose Ascanio. This was a good deal, as both players dealt were redundant and would have cost some money.

The signing of Kosuke Fukudome for four years, $48 million turned the offseason into a winning affair, giving the team a much needed injection of on-base ability, and hopefully a new revenue stream. Later, Ed Hendry dealt Angel Pagan to the Mets, further ridding the Cubs of their outfield superabundance.

Nationals: The Nationals appear to have done well by trading for other teams’ troubled youths. Trading Ryan Church and the mostly useless Brian Schneider for a young potential All-Star in Lastings Milledge was a big victory. Elijah Dukes, acquired from the Rays, has huge talent, but needs to overcome legal, personal, and character problems first. Of course, then the Nats had to go and sign Aaron Boone, Paul Lo Duca, Rob Mackowiak, and Willie Harris, while also drafting an infielder and an outfielder in the Rule 5. How many no-hit bench players does a team need?

Braves: Trading Edgar Renteria to the Tigers was a good move, as Gorkys Hernandez and Jair Jurrgens will be solid players, while Renteria is a streaky and ultimately replaceable player. On the other hand—perhaps I’m biased because of that one-third inning on the last day of the year—the Braves overpaid for Tom Glavine. He’s worth the money but not the first round draft pick ceded to their division rival. New GM Frank Wren also dealt for Ohman and Infante from the Cubs and gave another chance to Javy Lopez. The team’s in better shape after these deals, if only slightly. They still need a center fielder, and Mike Cameron is waiting for their call.

Neutral

Rockies: What do you get when you keep Yorvit Torrealba (2 year, $7.25 million) and Matt Herges (1 year, $2.5 million), decline LaTroy Hawkins ($3.75 million option), sign Luis Vizcaino (2 years, $7.5 million), and trade Denny Bautista for Jose Capellan? Basically the same team with a little less payroll flexibility. However, exercising Aaron Cook’s option and giving him three more years for $30 million was a nice move, and should be commended.

Pirates: So far, they’ve dumped the right players and haven’t done anything stupid. But that’s pretty easy when you don’t do anything at all. Eyes are on you, Neil Huntington.

Cardinals: Tough to say. The trade of Jim Edmonds for minor league third baseman David Freese has some potential. Other than that, the Cardinals haven’t done much, unless you’re excited by Cesar Izturis. Matt Clement, however, is an interesting pickup. Somehow, I don’t doubt he’ll do well in St. Louis.

Phillies: Trading for Brad Lidge was smart, but why the hell did they sign JC Romero to a three-year deal? In addition, the two-year, $13 million signing of Geoff Jenkins was uncreative. The other stuff, like signing Chris Snelling, So Taguchi, and Chad Durbin to one-year deals, is okay, but marginal.

Brewers: There’s no discernible net benefit in trading Johnny Estrada for Guillermo Mota, while dumping Matt Wise and Greg Aquino and signing Jason Kendall. Doug Melvin also gave too much to relievers David Riske and Eric Gagne, but the trade for Solomon Torres seems to be a big win, if the new Brewer doesn’t retire. Overall, the team appears to have some roster management issues.

Losers

Dodgers: It could still go either way, but I’m calling this a loss for the Dodgers. It’s true that Ned Colletti got fair value for Andruw Jones, but I feel like the signing had more to do with bringing in a big name than a proper consideration of needs and luxuries. What happens to centerfielder Juan Pierre, who was signed to a dreadful deal last offseason that’s looking more dreadful with each passing second? If he moves to left, he’ll just block a younger, more capable player.

They also signed Hiroki Kuroda to a three year, $35.3 million deal, and he’s probably not worth that much. Finally, Joe Torre: a bad move for both sides. The team will likely lose, and Joe Torre’s reputation as a winner will be called into question. Torre is actually bad for the Dodgers, as his two greatest weaknesses, ignoring the kids and mismanaging his bullpen, could cost the Dodgers considerably in 2008 and beyond.

Marlins: Honestly, I don’t care who they got in return. Trading 25-year old starter Dontrelle Willis and 24-year old future Hall-of-Famer Miguel Cabrera—both years from free agency—was criminal and should not have been permitted by the league. The Marlins and Jeffrey Loria are a disgrace to baseball. Giving money to Jose Castillo and Jorge Cantu were also bad ideas. One plus: non-tendering Miguel Olivo.

Reds: First, they signed Dusty Baker to a three year, $10.5 million contract. This is an attempt to prove the team’s seriousness by bringing on board a well-known and respected manager. The problems are many, of course. For one thing, Dusty Baker has demonstrated his incompetence on multiple fronts. For another, managers seem to have very little effect on the outcome of baseball games, so there’s no good reason why the small market Reds should be pursuing a “star” manager and paying him “star” money.

The team did well to exercise its options on Scott Hatteberg, Adam Dunn and Javier Valentin. It did not do well, however, to sign Francisco Cordero to a four-year, $46 million contract. We get it, you’re serious. But you’re also stupid: you’re paying too much for a mid-thirties reliever who will make you a .500 team at best. Finally, the team dealt Josh Hamilton to the Rangers for two potentially good but risky young pitchers. Overall, the Reds have had an offseason to cringe about.

Mets: So far, Omar Minaya has made two terrible moves in signing Luis Castillo for four years and trading Milledge for Church and Schneider, two pretty good moves in re-signing Ramon Castro and trading Mota for Estrada, two relatively insignificant moves in re-signing Marlon Anderson and Damion Easley, and some other stuff like signing Wise, trading for Brian Stokes, drafting Steven Register in the Rule 5, and trading for Angel Pagan, which will probably never matter. Stonewalling Lo Duca was a nice side story. But strap yourselves in, Mets fans: this could get a lot worse. It also might not be that bad. Wait and see.

Giants: At this point, I just feel horrible for Giants’ fans. They are the opposite of a good team and have the worst possible approach to running a baseball team. Instead of admitting that they suck and their entire approach is wrong, they continue to add old mediocrities in a vain attempt to “compete.”

What now? They signed the hard-nosed professional Aaron Rowand to a five-year contract that won’t change the team’s destiny to finish in last or next-to-last place for all five years. For some terrible reason, the team re-signed Omar Vizquel for another year, another $5.5 million. They will also likely bring back Pedro Feliz, which is probably a mistake. I can’t write any more—this team is too depressing.

Astros: Probably the biggest losers so far. First, they didn’t get a good enough return for Lidge, but, hey, at least it was the right idea, trading for youth. But then came December, and Ed Wade set the rest of his “plan” in motion. First, he gave a three-year deal to Kaz Matsui, arguably an even more horrific deal than the one the Mets gave Castillo. Matsui got this contract due to his unsubstantiated reputation for having revived his career in Colorado and being a ‘sparkplug’ at the top of the lineup. Meanwhile the Padres paid less than $4 million for one year of Tadahito Iguchi, and the Blue Jays did nearly the same for David Eckstein.

Then, the Astros gave up most of their farm system for Miguel Tejada, an aging shortstop who is on the downside of his career and south of sub-par defensively, subsequently releasing Adam Everett, one of the top two or three defensive shortstops in the game. The net result? A huge loss on defense, a little gain on offense, and a lot of young players gone. Welcome to Giants Central!

But wait, there’s more. The Astros gave a million dollars to Darin Erstad, who is presumably still on a major league roster because he once played hockey in high school and punted for his college football team in the Midwest.

Of course, there was also the Valverde deal, a clear win for the Diamondbacks. The Astros also signed Doug Brocail, Chad Paronto, Oscar Villareal (acquired from Atlanta), and Jack Cassel, expecting a dearth in the market for mediocre middle relievers. Ed Wade’s busy trying to prove he can sink a franchise like few others.

John Peterson hates old players on principle. You can read his stylized ravings regularly at Blastings! Thrilledge.

14 Responses to “Winners and Losers: National League”

Comment posted by JamesSC on January 10, 2008 at 9:59 am (#588415)
I guess it depends on your definition of “losers” I think the team we are going to field next year overall is better than what we were able to field last year. I think a full year of Castillo next year is an improvement to the team, I also think that Church and Schneider make us better for next year. I am also of the opinion that Pedro will have a very good year next year and surprise most people.

So to me that would put us in at least the “neutral” category of being about the same as we were last year and a solid contender for the Division and any WC that would be around.

Now if you are saying we are losers because the length of the Castillo deal is a mistake (I agree), and the trade that brought in Church and Schneider were a mistake I agree. But in terms of our ability to win games next year we are at least as good as last year’s team and I think better.
Comment posted by davidg on January 10, 2008 at 11:48 am (#588613)
John -

I think your assessments are dead on - and I agree with your call on the Mets. Castillo is on the downward arc of his career - so not only was the length of his contract absurd, but you really have to question how his health and game will hold up next year. Wouldn’t a platoon of Easley and Gotay have yielded as much or more (while reserving Castillo’s money for better purposes, say pitching). And similarly with Schneider and Church, are they really a meaningful upgrade over LoDuca and Green/Milledge? No. So to trade away a 22 year old (in Milledge) who has already had some snippets of outstanding performance (.950 OPS against lefties and a .960 OPS at Shea) for two slightly better than average veterans made no sense. Omar didn’t get a good young pitcher in return - he didn’t even get the Nats best (and younger) right fielder in Austen Kearns. So Omar’s moves to date have not positioned the team for improvement for next year (it’s really more of the same we had last year) and may certainly have put them in a worse position for the long term.

What probably has made this off season’s moves a real loser is that Omar has shown other GMs how weakly he values his own talent. In giving away Milledge, Omar opened the door for other GMs to ask for much larger packages of talent that seem very unreasonable relative to other deals that have been rumored. Remember the Santana sweepstakes - after trading Milledge for mediocre talent, the Twins supposedly wanted Jose Reyes or 6 top prospects to consider the Mets in a deal. Either of those packages would be much higher in value than the purported Yankee or Red Sox offers. And the same can be said with the Orioles for Bedard (increasing their need to 4 top prospects after the Milledge trade). Why are the Mets treated differently? Because Omar is more desperate and has shown his tendencies (while with the Expos and now again with the Mets) to assign a lower value his younger players and trade them for less.

So, in my book, the Mets are considered losers this off season because Omar hasn’t increased the chances of the team’s ability to win this year - and worse has probably killed his opportunity to make a fair deal for a front line starter.
Comment posted by John Peterson on January 10, 2008 at 12:14 pm (#588619)
Now if you are saying we are losers because the length of the Castillo deal is a mistake (I agree), and the trade that brought in Church and Schneider were a mistake I agree.

That is what I am saying.

But in terms of our ability to win games next year we are at least as good as last year’s team and I think better.

This is debatable. That it is debatable shows how bad these moves are. How much better is Castillo than a cheaper option, really? I might even prefer the non-guaranteed contact having Jose Valentin at this point, since his defense has really been stellar (unlike Castillo).

Ryan Church will likely be better than Milledge in 2008. However, there is a fair chance that Milledge is better; after that, we know who we would prefer. How is this a victory?

Brian Schneider is a mediocre player, and has little to offer over Ramon Castro besides perhaps more durability. A platoon of Castro/Estrada would probably be better.

So really, we have three maybes: maybe Castillo is better than Gotay and/or Easley and/or Valentin and/or whoever; maybe Ryan Church is better than Lastings Milledge; and maybe– a real stretch, but maybe– Brian Schneider’s defense is so good that he makes up for how bad of a hitter he is.

I do think the Mets will be better in ‘08 than ‘07. But the reasons are the continued development of Wright and Reyes, the return of Pedro for a whole season, the bouncing back of Carlos Delgado, the return of Duaner Sanchez, and the continued development of John Maine and Oliver Perez.
Comment posted by JamesSC on January 10, 2008 at 3:03 pm (#588813)
I do think the Mets will be better in ‘08 than ‘07. But the reasons are the continued development of Wright and Reyes, the return of Pedro for a whole season, the bouncing back of Carlos Delgado, the return of Duaner Sanchez, and the continued development of John Maine and Oliver Perez.

I agree with you on the reasons why the Mets will be better in 08, I was just questioning why you called them losers if you think we have a better team next year. I agree we made bad deals this season, (although I disagree that Castillo is a bad deal for next year, I think he is easily better than what we had to replace him next year, my problem is beyond not 08).

So I guess in the end I agree with you. Although I am not quite as down on some of the moves as you are.
Comment posted by JamesSC on January 10, 2008 at 3:08 pm (#588826)
Remember the Santana sweepstakes - after trading Milledge for mediocre talent, the Twins supposedly wanted Jose Reyes or 6 top prospects to consider the Mets in a deal. Either of those packages would be much higher in value than the purported Yankee or Red Sox offers. And the same can be said with the Orioles for Bedard (increasing their need to 4 top prospects after the Milledge trade). Why are the Mets treated differently?

That is just revisionist history David, the rumors about Reyes being required to get Santana came around LONG before the Milledge trade. And lets put it this way, I would definitely trade 3 of our top prospects for Hughes/Joba Chamberlain. Those two pitchers have the chance to be REALLY special, that is worth a lot more than a handful of guys who have a chance to be pretty good. Especially since they are so close to being ML ready.

I love F-Mart, but what he is 2-3 years away from even showing his potential? Gomez showed that he is still a good prospect in his breif callup, but didn’t wow anyone. Pelfrey? Mulvey?

Hughes showed he could pitch a near no-hitter in Yankee Stadium, Joba was already a game changing relief pitcher grooming for a big time starting roll. I think most people understand that if the Yankees or Boston included 1 or 2 of their top 3 we would never be able to compete.
Comment posted by Chris in GA on January 10, 2008 at 4:17 pm (#588924)
My comment disappeared from the other day. Go figure
Comment posted by rfloh on January 10, 2008 at 5:31 pm (#588946)
“Jones’ value should be more than another mediocre middle infielder. ”

Why? His OPS+ was 87 in 2007. 87. Despite the fact that he was only used in favourable platoon situations. So, he was below average even when he didn’t have to face LHPs. Have him face LHPs, whom he is awful against, and his rate numbers would likely have been even worse. Nor was 2007 a fluke. OPS+ last 5 years: 107, 89, 98, 108, 87. And OPS+ OVERRATES him, because his OBP is awful, and OPS+ doesn’t weight OBP correctly.

They traded a 33 year old mediocre OF for a 26 year old mediocre IF.

“It’s true that Ned Colletti got fair value for Andruw Jones, but I feel like the signing had more to do with bringing in a big name than a proper consideration of needs and luxuries. What happens to centerfielder Juan Pierre, who was signed to a dreadful deal last offseason that’s looking more dreadful with each passing second? If he moves to left, he’ll just block a younger, more capable player.”

What is your solution? Refuse to admit that the Pierre signing was idiotic and that Pierre is an awful player and continue to run him out their at the cost of wins? At least with the Jones signing, there is a chance that they are conceding that signing Pierre was idiotic. There is a chance that they might not start Pierre.

“Finally, the team dealt Josh Hamilton to the Rangers for two potentially good but risky young pitchers”

And Hamilton has had and still has some serious personal issues with regards to addiction. He has as much a risk as Edinson Volquez.

“What now? They signed the hard-nosed professional Aaron Rowand to a five-year contract that won’t change the team’s destiny to finish in last or next-to-last place for all five years. For some terrible reason, the team re-signed Omar Vizquel for another year, another $5.5 million. They will also likely bring back Pedro Feliz, which is probably a mistake. I can’t write any more—this team is too depressing.”

So what would you have them do? Throw up their hands and tell all the people who sell out their gorgeous park that they are not going to make an attempt to compete in next few years? Throw up their hands and just waste Matt Cain’s and Tim Lincecum’s young cheap years because they are not going to compete for the next 5 years? Just like the Tigers couldn’t compete when they signed Pudge Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez the year after signing Pudge?

Also, Pedro Feliz is a phenomenal defender. He is nearly as good at 3b as Adam Everett is at SS. Every defensive metric out there has him as unquestionably the best defensive 3b in MLB. His glove actually balances out his pathetic bat.
Comment posted by John Peterson on January 10, 2008 at 5:41 pm (#588949)
I agree that Jacque Jones is nothing special. Perhaps that trade was fine.

Re: Andruw Jones, it’s not the player in a bubble. It’s in the context of the team, and on the Dodgers Juan Pierre will play left field.

Re: Josh Hamilton, I didn’t suggest that it was a bad trade, just listing transactions.

Re: Aaron Rowand, yes, I would have the Giants not make a futile attempt to compete, because they are not going to succeed as they are, and attempting to compete will hurt their chances of doing that in the future.

Feliz is a great defender, but the offensive demands of third base are greater than those of shortstop. Feliz is too much of a liability.
Comment posted by rfloh on January 11, 2008 at 2:29 am (#589014)
“Feliz is a great defender, but the offensive demands of third base are greater than those of shortstop. Feliz is too much of a liability.”

Feliz is regularly between 20-30 runs ABOVE average defensively. Offensively, using either Batting Runs above average from Baseball Prospectus, or Batting Runs from BBRef, he is typically between 15-20 runs BELOW average defensively. At least based on UZR, plus minus, RZR, Zone Rating, Feliz’ glove does balance his bat.

“Re: Aaron Rowand, yes, I would have the Giants not make a futile attempt to compete, because they are not going to succeed as they are, and attempting to compete will hurt their chances of doing that in the future.”

So, they should trade Matt Cain? He’s already got 2 years of service time. And for how long should they not attempt to compete? Because while they are not competing they are also wasting Tim Lincecum, besides Cain. Rowand isn’t going to block anyone. Their 2 best positional prospects are Angel Villalona and Nate Schierholtz. Villalona is a FMart type, except at 3b. He’s nowhere close to the majors yet. Schierholtz is a RF.

“Re: Andruw Jones, it’s not the player in a bubble. It’s in the context of the team, and on the Dodgers Juan Pierre will play left field.”

Have the Dodgers said this? But let’s assume you are correct. Which would you prefer, Andre Either + Juan Pierre + Matt Kemp or Juan Pierre + Andruw Jones + Matt Kemp + player that Either is traded for?
Comment posted by JamesSC on January 11, 2008 at 9:53 am (#589080)
rf, the problem is that Rowand isn’t a player to build around and doesn’t really help you that much now. To me he was too expensive especially for that team in that situation. If that were my team I would rather they use that money on other areas. Of course, as long as the Zito contract is there maybe money is never going to be loose enough anyway.
Comment posted by Nj is waiting for The Mets to make a deal on January 11, 2008 at 10:44 am (#589118)
The Mets made really bad moves. The team they have now is not better than last year.
Comment posted by littlefallsmets on January 11, 2008 at 7:02 pm (#589216)
Short term, the Mets are only moderate losers. Getting rid of the steaming load that was Gil Mota does negate a lot of the ‘08 losses this off-season. You add a whole hell of a lot through that subtraction

But between losing Milledge and being stuck with Castillo for four… long… limping… injury-riddled years, you’ve tied second base and one of the outfield corners, 25% of the everyday hitting line-up for years and years.

Medium and long-term, the Mets are THE losers of this off-season, possibly across the board.
Comment posted by kiljoy78 on January 12, 2008 at 10:22 am (#589268)
I have a lot of trouble understanding people’s issues with the Castillo contract. I find little evidence that Gotay/Easley would be comparble to Castillo. Castillo is better than both of those guys. By a good deal. The length of the contract may be an issue, but to say we are going to get “injury-riddled” years is absolutely ridiculous. Fact: we are better at second base right now than we were a year ago. That makes the move a positve. Also we are talking 4 million a year here folks. That’s less than half a player like Silva. I think the mets will be able to handle taht contract.
Comment posted by littlefallsmets on January 13, 2008 at 9:28 am (#589351)
Signing Castillo to, like, a year and another year option would not have been such a bad move. Four years is what makes it so ridiculous. Fragile as he looked last season, will he even make it through next season?

Very little left in that tank. If you wanna press your luck and hope that maybe he gets through next year relatively healthy, I’m not so opposed… but four years?

We signed Delgado for two too many years, too, look what a train wreck that’s become as well.

Castillo four or five years ago was a lot better than Gotay or Easley, sure.

‘07 Castillo plus ANOTHER year of wear and tear?

‘07 Castillo after two more years? Three more? I see Gotay as better than those guys.

Gotta live in the is, not the was.

You must be logged in to post a comment.

«« Link Dump: January 10th, 2008

Link Dump: January 11th, 2008 »»

my account:

premium blogad:

blogads:

advertisement:

sitemeter:

ticket center:

14 Responses to “Winners and Losers: National League”

Leave a Reply

advertisement:

highest rated journals:

recent user journals:

advertisement:

recent articles:

features:

other:

your ad here:

advertisement: