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January 9, 2008
The Real Met-Killers
Is it just me or are there always some guys who seem to come up big against the Mets? It seems like Chipper Jones is superhuman every time he steps up to the plate in Shea. I cower in fear and say a quick prayer whenever I see Pat Burrell’s mug. Don’t even mention Derek Jeter. I’ve had similar reactions over the years to guys like Brian Jordan, Ken Caminiti, and Preston Wilson, guys who always seemed to be the exclamation point on a rally. These are Met-killers, guys who have performed better against the Mets than any other team. But who’s been the biggest and the baddest over the years? I decided to do some quick and dirty research to figure that out. My methods were extremely simplistic. I pulled a list of everyone who has had 150 plate appearances or more against the Mets, and I narrowed it down to anyone with a .350 OBA or a .500 SLG. From there, I just compared their OPS against the Mets to their career numbers. Since it’s much more difficult to put up big numbers in a larger sample size, I weighted the results accordingly to give myself a single number which I’m calling “Met-Killer Score (MKS).” A negative MKS denotes someone who was worse against the Mets than the rest of the league, while a positive number indicates a true thorn in the sides of Mets fans everywhere. The stat isn’t perfect—it doesn’t adjust for things like age, era, park effects, or anything of the sort. The number isn’t meaningful in any way other than as a benchmark of comparison. However, MKS is easy to calculate and fun, which is exactly what a junk stat should be. Also, I should note that I’m not measuring who played the best against the Mets; I’m just figuring out whose performances were most out of line with their career numbers, so expect some surprises on the list. 12. Glenn Hubbard, 2B, 1978-1987 PA MetOPS CarOPS MKS 348 .806 .677 66.3 At this point you’re probably saying to yourself, “Hubbard? A Met-killer? He was basically an average hitter against them!” True. However, when you consider that the .806 OPS represents a 19% improvement over his career number and that it came over a fairly large sample size (as far as these things go), it’s pretty impressive. Hubbard was a no-bat, all-glove second baseman for the Braves for a decade, but against the Mets, he showed uncharacteristic pop and patience. 11. Derek Jeter, SS, 1997-2007 PA MetOPS CarOPS MKS 297 1.040 .850 66.4 At this point, I should mention that I did something a little unorthodox: I included postseason play. First, we’re dealing with small sample sizes, so every little bit helps. Second, when we’re discussing something as psychologically painful for fans as Met-killers, postseason disasters certainly come into play. So, in the end, there was no reason not to include October. Jeter, who already had a 1.015 regular-season OPS against the Mets, was helped out even more by his 1.344-OPS, MVP performance in the 2000 Classic. 10. Tony Taylor, 2B, 1962-1971; 1974-1976 PA MetOPS CarOPS MKS 568 .764 .673 76.8 Another player in the Hubbard mold—a normally light-hitting player who just played a little better against the Mets, hitting .293/.367/.397, which was pretty good for a middle infielder in the 1960’s. Taylor played mostly with the Phillies and was the only decent long-term second baseman they had in between Nap Lajoie and Chase Utley. 9. Dave Kingman, LF, 1971-1974; 1977-1980 PA MetOPS CarOPS MKS 295 .993 .780 80.6 The quintessential one-dimensional slugger. He couldn’t hit for average, he had average patience at the plate, and he was dreadful in the field. But he could hit homeruns, hitting 37 for Oakland in 1986 at age 37 before being driven out of baseball by collusion. For more on what Kong might have accomplished, read Chris Dial’s piece at Baseball Think Factory. 8. Bill White, 1B, 1962-1969 PA MetOPS CarOPS MKS 465 .947 .806 81.3 White was a vaguely similar player to Keith Hernandez. One of the best glovemen to play the position, he had a tad more power, a tad less contact ability. Against the Mets, he was an MVP candidate, hitting .317/.380/.567 with 23 homers, 25 doubles, and 75 RBI. Doubtless, he feasted on the mediocre stable of pitchers the Mets featured in their formative years, but it’s still a hell of a stat line. 7. Willie McCovey, 1B, 1962-1980 PA MetOPS CarOPS MKS 730 .989 .889 82.1 One of the best-known Met-killers, Stretch dominated New York to the tune of .299/.392/.597 with 48 homers and 134 RBI. How’s this for an abundance of talent: in 1958, the Giants owned White, McCovey, and Orlando Cepeda, all first basemen. Although they traded White away to St. Louis, the Giants insisted on making McCovey a part-time player his first few years in the league, despite being superior in every way to Cepeda. There were even thoughts not to protect McCovey in the 1962 expansion draft. If only. 6. Claudell Washington, RF, 1981-1986 PA MetOPS CarOPS MKS 241 1.001 .745 82.1 In June of 1980, the Mets acquired Washington from the White Sox to help keep the team competitive down the stretch. He certainly helped, even if the team failed, hitting a solid .272/.324/.465 and even slamming three homers on June 22nd at Los Angeles, as Eric Simon noticed recently. At the end of the season, the Mets opted to let him leave via free agency; he wound up signing with the Braves. Big mistake. Claudell hit .330/.423/.578 against the Mets over the next six seasons. 5. Wes Parker, 1B, 1964-1972 PA MetOPS CarOPS MKS 454 .859 .726 83.2 Parker isn’t remembered for his bat, hitting just .267/.351/.375, but rather for his glove. He was a better hitter than the simple numbers show, however, as much of his ability was disguised by Dodger Stadium and the pitching-dominated 1960’s. In 1970, he had a legitimately great year, but injuries caught up to him shortly thereafter. He retired early; although the injuries contributed, his heart wasn’t really in baseball—he instead wanted to become an actor. Unfortunately, his acting career was even shorter than his baseball career. 4. Tony Gonzalez, CF, 1960-1970 PA MetOPS CarOPS MKS 516 .887 .763 83.9 The Phillies’ centerfielder of the 1960’s. While Gonzalez didn’t have much power, he hit .286 with decent on-base ability, while providing very good defense in center. In the 1960’s that was a valuable asset. And it probably didn’t hurt that his bat went afire whenever he played the Mets, hitting .323 over his career against them. Traded to Atlanta in 1969, he played well against the Mets in the NLCS, hitting .357 and knocking a homerun off Tom Seaver. 3. Gary Carter, C, 1974-1984; 1990-1991 PA MetOPS CarOPS MKS 720 .873 .774 92.1 When you think of Gary Carter, most here remember him as a Met. But as an Expo, he was public enemy number one. Carter recently got a gig managing in the Golden Baseball League. Think Gary regrets not taking that job managing Binghamton? PA MetOPS CarOPS MKS 581 .833 .713 93.7 Menke split his time with the Braves and Astros before serving as a stopgap at third base in the Big Red Machine in 1972 and 1973. Early in his career, the Braves had a lot of hope for his bat—he had been extremely successful as an amateur, and the Braves signed him to a huge $125,000 contract in 1958. His power never really developed as planned, and his contact skills would come and go. Against the Mets, he was downright steady, hitting .289/.382/.451. 1. Rico Carty, LF, 1963-1973 PA MetOPS CarOPS MKS 360 1.064 .833 99.8 The granddaddy of all Met-killers. Carty was a big, strong hulk of a man, but practically immobile in left field. He was a .299 lifetime hitter and had some impressive seasons in Atlanta and Cleveland. He’d have a pretty strong Hall of Fame argument if not for a bout with tuberculosis and a devastating knee injury in the middle of his career. Against the Mets, he was otherworldly, hitting .380/.460/.607. In 1964, he was in particularly fine form—he batted a robust .509/.594/.1.018 over 69 plate appearances. What’s that, you ask? Where’s Chipper? Burrell? Sorry, folks, they didn’t make the cut. As I said, this list just presents the guys who performed better against the Mets than they usually did, and part of the problem is that both are fine hitters already. Chipper doesn’t just kill the Mets; he kills everyone–his OPS against the Mets is just 2.7% beyond his career average. As for Burrell, he scored well, a 47.3 MKS, which puts him 31st on my list. The Mets have limited him to a .252 batting average, which prevents him from placing higher. Alex is a raving lunatic whose work can be found regularly here at Mets Geek. He welcomes comments and criticisms at kingblackfish@yahoo.com. 19 Responses to “The Real Met-Killers”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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GREAT article. Thanks, Alex. I was surprised not see the likes of Mike Easley, Woody Woodward, Tommy Hutton and Pat Burrell on the list. Fun reading.
Interesting stuff, Alex.
Also, for a 2007-specific take on the topic, check out Jessica’s article at Take the 7 Train.
Nice article. all these names from the 60s/70s really mean nothing to me though, I’d be more interested in a current list.
Yeah I like to see a more recent list as well. I dont know many names on that list lol.
Also, I think that prehaps maybe the reason u are getting alot of older guys back then high on the list as opposed to current ones is that the mets were really bad back then so naturally its easier the have better numbers against the mets then the rest of the league I would assume.
Eitherway great article.
No love for Manny Trillo?
I like to see how Tom Herr stacks up against those guys. He seemed to always get that key hit to meat the mets when he was a card.
Very fun to read - thanks Alex.
Did Dave Kingman receive absolutely no offers after having excellent (homerun wise) consecutive seasons, or did he refuse offers because he felt that they were offensive and/or the offers weren’t enough money to motivate him to continue? Yes, I think he could have easily reached 500 home runs if he played two more years. Hey, maybe its not too late; Omar likes really old players….
These days, I think a little collusion by the owners is not bad, as long as there is a mechanism to ensure that the owners don’t collude and yet still raise tickets 20 percent.
Sorry Dep … the 60s/70s names mean a lot to old farts like me!
Great article. I definitely agree with the idea that what makes a player a Met-killer is how much better he performs against the Mets than everyone else (after all, watching your team get beat by a star is annoying but not entirely unexpected; watching a scrub beat them is what really hurts).
I’d be curious to see how an MKS-based list for just the ‘07 season would compare to what I came up with recently (I tried to base my “team” on the numbers as much as possible, but wound up giving Larry what amounted to a lifetime achievement award and perhaps gave Bengie Molina a bit too much credit for hitting 2 home runs in the same inning).
The numbers could definitely use an adjustment for the strength of the Mets’ pitching at various times, but the list was cool nonetheless.
Woody Woodward didn’t meet the minimum requirements for my sample. If I get the chance I’ll expand the sample and include him (among others). Quite frankly, this required me to do more data entry by hand than I would have liked.
Mike Easler, Pat Burrell, and Tommy Hutton did make my sample. Their scores were 32.2, 47.3, and 40.0 respectively, each falling in the top 62.
Dep, you need to expand your horizons. I’m a history nut, so the “obscure” older names hold a lot more magic for me than a recent list.
Definitely plays a part. Also playing a part is that the foundation of the statistic is based in comparing the OPS vs. team against the player’s career OPS. That’s much easier when the figure is smaller, and the numbers were smaller then. I decided to stick to what the MKS told me rather than use my judgment. It made for a more interesting column, to me and 86Forever, at least.
I forgot Trillo was there for a while, to be honest. Actually he was only there for four years, though they were the best four years of his career, offensively speaking.
And before you ask, no love for Mickey Morandini or Otto Knabe, either.
Herr was actually the guy who inspired this whole thing. I was a little disappointed when he fell short. His MKS was 48.6, 26th on my list.
My guess is that it’s more the former than the latter. In 1987, Tim Raines was one of the best players on the planet, and he missed the first month of the season because no one would offer him a contract, forcing him to return to Montreal. Collusion really cost players a lot of money and built a lot of ill-will between the two sides.
I wouldn’t even try. As it is, the sample sizes are laughably small. Especially with an unbalanced schedule it really doesn’t make sense to use MKS for just one year. Your list is doubtless better. It would be simple enough to accomplish, but I’d have to loosen the parameters for the sample and re-enter data. It would make much more sense to use it to compile an active players list. BTW, Chipper wouldn’t even make that list–Scott Rolen has been incredible against the Mets.
It definitely would, but (A) That’s hard to figure out, and (B) wouldn’t be worth it because the stat isn’t meant to be meaningful in any way. I don’t think it’s really important to have success against a particular team, just a fun exercise.
hahaha, yea, you’re probably right. I’ve tried to read books about players from past era’s, but it just doesn’t do it for me. I have a hard time getting that into guys if I dont have personal memories of them. Oh well, to each his own. I still read the article :)
hahahah, well if it means something to you, then it means something to me!!! ;)
Great article, Alex! Its a great idea and a fun read.
I wonder if there would be a way to create a similar list for pitchers who turn into Cy Young (or otherwise outperform) against the Mets?
Alex, this is probably one of the best articles I have ever read on this site. I’m not BSing you either. This made spend some productive time at work looking up these players. I too thought Tommy Herr would of ranked higher.
I’ve actually been working on a 2007-centric version of that (more a look back at the pitching performances against the Mets - both scrubs morphing into Cy Young and aces getting pasted - that were out of line with the season the pitcher had than a historical list, though).
Great, Jessica. I’ll keep my eye out for it.
Damn, Alex is nuts. And awesome at the same time.
This is nice, but when a player stands out as a Met killer, I don’t think it’s because their OPS against the Mets is higher than their career OPS. Rather, it’s because of how clutch a player has been against the Mets.
Brian Jordan was a bona fide Met killer because over a span of years the guy seemed to stick a fork in the Mets eye at a key moment at least once in every series he played against them. If he came up in the 12th inning with a guy on 1st, you can bet he’d hit an RBI double. If he were playing somebody else, he’d strike out, but against the Mets? Double. Automatic.
Same with Chipper…his stats overall might not be that much more impressive against the Mets than they are overall, but there’s a reason he named his kid Shea. It’s ’cause in the big spots he came through again and again.
The stats probably don’t exist to do it, but I think it would be more interesting if you could use WPA stats to gauge who really inflicted outsize damage on the Mets, in terms of reduced win probability. Maybe by calculating a player’s career WPA per game and then see what his WPA per game was against the Mets. I think that would better capture what fans think of a Met killer.